It's pretty unbelievable that we have just three weeks of NFL regular season left. Gambling can get pretty tricky here down the stretch. Which teams will rise to the occasion and which teams will flounder? Will the teams already eliminated from playoff contention show up to play, or are they already looking forward to 2023?
Week 16 features plenty of juicy matchups. The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets face off Thursday night in a battle of two teams looking to get in the playoff picture, the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles, who may not have Jalen Hurts, and Aaron Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers to South Beach for a date with the Miami Dolphins. I'm calling it now, this week will be awesome.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Top five picks ATS record: 36-38-1
Overall ATS record: 116-101-7
Straight up record: 146-76-2
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
It appeared the Panthers had found new life with Sam Darnold under center, but I think we saw last week that if the run game isn't going, Carolina will have a tough time getting into the win column. The Panthers averaged 1.3 yards per attempt, and finished the 24-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers with just 21 rushing yards. As for the Lions, they have won six out of their last seven games, and have a chance at a playoff spot. They are also a good team to bet on, as Dan Campbell is 10-4 ATS on the year (tied for second-best in the NFL).
The Lions' win over the Jets last week was not too impressive, but it did stand out that Jets leading rusher Zonovan Knight managed just 1.8 yards per carry after a couple good weeks of running the ball. Give me the Lions.
The pick: Lions -2.5
Projected score: Lions 24-20
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The weather is going to be absolute trash, but I want to take the Browns at home under a field goal. Deshaun Watson hasn't exactly been "balling," but he's getting better. I'm not sure how much passing will be happening this weekend in Cleveland, however, as the weather calls for freezing temperatures and wild wind. Not good for that team that plays in a dome half the year!
The injury reports for both teams look as gross as the weather forecast. Nick Chubb is dealing with a foot injury, Jadeveon Clowney has a concussion, Myles Garrett is sick and then Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have lower-body injuries. Still, I'm going to take Cleveland to find a way to win at home.
The pick: Browns -2.5
Projected score: Browns 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals are on a six-game win streak, and went on a 34-0 run to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week after falling behind 17-0. Cincinnati is just that team right now, as the Bengals are 11-3 ATS on the year, 6-2 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS as favorites.
Joe Burrow has the highest passer rating since Week 3, and has taken just 1.3 sacks per game during this six-game win streak. While the Bengals have been one of the best teams in the NFL as of late, the Patriots have not. New England has lost three of its past four, with the lone win being against a Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals team. With the flick of Jakobi Meyer's wrist, the Patriots' playoff chances fell to just 19 percent, per FiveThirtyEight, and this offense is one of Bill Belichick's worst. The Patriots' 18.4 points per game are the fewest since the first season under Belichick in 2000. The 34 percent third-down rate and 38 percent red-zone touchdown percentage rank dead last in the Belichick era. I'll take Cincinnati to keep rolling.
The pick: Bengals -3
Projected score: Bengals 25-17
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Packers created some momentum for themselves with the primetime win over the Los Angeles Rams. Now, they get a tough road test in Mike McDaniel's Dolphins on Christmas Day.
Miami has lost three straight, and Tua Tagovailoa hasn't completed more than 57 percent of his passes during this losing streak. However, I was actually impressed with what I saw from the Dolphins against the Buffalo Bills last week. I thought the Dolphins would get blasted, but they covered the number on the road in cold, snowy conditions. Tagovailoa made some throws he wasn't hitting in the past two losses, and then Raheem Mostert ran absolutely wild with 136 rushing yards.
The Dolphins return to Miami for the first time in a month, where they are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. I'll take the Dolphins.
The pick: Dolphins -4
Projected score: Dolphins 28-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
So, the Buccaneers aren't very good. They blew at 17-point lead to the Bengals last week while Tom Brady turned the ball over on four straight drives. At the same time, the Cardinals are not very good either. Without Kyler Murray, the Cardinals lost to Brett Rypien and the lowly Denver Broncos, 24-15.
This game is in Arizona, which is bad for the Cardinals. They are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, and Trace McSorley is in line to make his first career start with Colt McCoy in concussion protocol. The Buccaneers still have a one-game lead in the NFC South, and I'm just banking on Brady rebounding against a bad team late in the season.
The pick: Buccaneers -7.5
Projected score: Buccaneers 24-13
Other Week 16 picks
Jets (-1.5) 23-21 over Jaguars
Bills 30-23 over Bears (+8.5)
Chiefs 31-24 over Seahawks (+10)
Vikings (-4) 26-20 over Giants
Ravens (-7) 27-18 over Falcons
Titans (-3) 23-17 over Texans
49ers 28-24 over Commanders (+7)
Cowboys 24-23 over Eagles (+5)
Raiders (+2.5) 26-20 over Steelers
Broncos (-2.5) 20-17 over Rams
Chargers 27-23 over Colts (+4.5)
