We're closing in on the final two weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season and also putting the finishing touches on the year as a whole this week, and we'll look to do so on a high note. Coming out of the Christmas holiday, I enjoyed the strongest weekend of any CBS Sports expert, rolling to a 10-6 ATS record which included a 3-2 ATS mark on my five locks of the week. While that's just creeping above .500 for the locks, you're in the money if you sprinkled some of your cash from your stocking on the Steelers moneyline as I suggested.
This week, we're going to lean on a trio of playoff hopefuls within my locks, and also look at two teams with a couple of the worst records in the league to cover against two division leaders. Happy New Year!
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 40-40-1
ATS: 123-106-11
ML: 150-90
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Rams at Giants
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants are making the switch from Tommy DeVito to Tyrod Taylor for this matchup, so this line could move a bit, but I like the Rams to win this game handily. Sean McVay's team has been a road favorite twice already this year and has covered in both instances with an average margin of victory sitting at 14.5 points. L.A. is currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture and needs this game to keep pace, so the motivation is there to make this cross-country trip a success. The Rams have also been one of the hottest offenses in the league to close out the year, averaging 6.2 yards per play over the last three weeks (second best in the NFL). The Giants are allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt this year (20th), so Matthew Stafford should be able to continue his resurgence this season as well. In the last five games, Stafford has a 114.2 passer rating and has thrown more passing touchdowns (14) than any other QB, while committing just one interception. L.A. is the superior team and should win this matchup by a touchdown.
Projected score: Rams 30, Giants 17
The pick: Rams -5.5
Lions at Cowboys
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
I've often talked about moments where teams get caught exhaling and they slip up that week. Well, I think the Lions -- fresh off an emotional victory to win the division for the first time since 1993 -- are in that spot as they head to Dallas. With their playoff ticket punch and seeding relatively secure, the Lions might get caught a bit more sluggish than we're accustomed to seeing them. Meanwhile, Dallas has been an absolute monster at home. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS and have an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. They also have plenty of motivation coming into this contest, looking to stay in the NFC East race and snap a two-game losing skid. Look for Dak Prescott to have a big game through the air against a Lions secondary that is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt this season and just let Nick Mullens toss for 411 yards.
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Lions 21
The pick: Cowboys -6
Jets at Browns
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Jets had a perfect start to last week's game against Washington. They were up 10-0 in the blink of an eye, thanks to an interception and blocked punt, and eventually held a 27-7 lead. And they still didn't cover. Cleveland is a much more disciplined team than the Commanders and has a much sturdier defense, so Trevor Siemian likely won't be gifted short fields in this matchup. He'll also have the monumental challenge of facing a Browns defense that ranks first in total yards per game, passing yards per game, third-down conversion percentage and yards per play. Translation: It's going to be tough sledding for the Jets offense. I also love the revenge angle for Joe Flacco, who was with the Jets the previous two seasons, but inexplicably didn't get a call from them following the injury to Aaron Rodgers and struggles from Zach Wilson. I expect him to flash what could have been as he helps send the Browns to the playoffs.
Projected score: Browns 24, Jets 13
The pick: Browns -7.5
Panthers at Jaguars
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Trevor Lawrence's status is uncertain for this game after he left Sunday's loss to the Bucs with a right shoulder injury. The Jags QB has been banged up in recent weeks, so even if he does play I don't expect him to be 100 percent, which plays into our hand by taking the Panthers to keep this matchup surprisingly close. Bryce Young is coming off his best outing of the season, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns, and is now going against a Jacksonville secondary that is giving up 7.7 yards per pass at home this season. Over the last five games, the Jags defense has ranked 30th in points per game (29.5), 31st in yards per game (402.8) and last in missed tackles (55). This is a play against a banged-up Lawrence (or C.J. Beathard) and a soft Jaguars defense as much as it is a play for a Panthers team that may have unlocked something on offense.
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Panthers 20
The pick: Panthers +6.5
Cardinals at Eagles
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
You'd think that this would be the perfect get-right spot for the Eagles. They're home at Lincoln Financial Field for the second straight week and are taking on a Cardinals team that was just in Chicago, flew back to Arizona, and now has to fly back across the country to Philly for this game. From a travel standpoint, it's a bad spot for the Cardinals, but I think Philly continues to leave the backdoor wide open as it has done throughout the year and just as it did last week against the Giants with a late 70-yard touchdown. Kyle Murray's offense is averaging 8.7 fourth-quarter points over the last three weeks (fifth best in the NFL) and the Eagles are allowing 7.6 fourth-quarter points on the season as a whole (28th). Philly wins this game, but Arizona makes it a bit spicy down the stretch.
Projected score: Eagles 30, Cardinals 21
The pick: Cardinals +10.5
Rest of the bunch
Falcons at Bears
Projected score: Bears 24, Falcons 20
The pick: Bears -3
Raiders at Colts
Projected score: Raiders 23, Colts 20
The pick: Raiders +3
Dolphins at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 30, Dolphins 24
The pick: Ravens -3.5
Patriots at Bills
Projected score: Bills 28, Patriots 20
The pick: Patriots +12
Saints at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Saints 17
The pick: Buccaneers -3
49ers at Commanders
Projected score: 49ers 33, Commanders 17
The pick: 49ers -13.5
Titans at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Titans 20
The pick: Texans -3.5
Steelers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Steelers 17
The pick: Seahawks -3.5
Bengals at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Bengals 17
The pick: Chiefs -7
Chargers at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 24, Chargers 20
The pick: Chargers +5.5
Packers at Vikings
Projected score: Packers 24, Vikings 21
The pick: Packers +2