Happy New Year everyone!

OK, so I just looked at my calendar and it seems that I've slightly jumped the gun here. It's not Jan. 1 yet, but in my defense, I have no idea what day it is anymore and that's mostly because I just spent Christmas weekend with a 3-year-old who ate nine pieces of candy before bed every night. I didn't sleep. She didn't sleep. No one slept. 

The fact that I lost track of the calendar probably also explains why these picks are coming out one day later than usual this week. 

Although it's not the new year yet, it will be shortly after the Packers-Vikings game concludes on Sunday night. With New Year's Eve right around the corner, I feel like now is a good time to talk about resolutions and I'd like you guys to know that my resolution for 2024 is to nail 100% of my picks. Sure, that's a horrible resolution, but that mostly describes every resolution I've ever made in my life, so this is nothing new. 

Anyway, if your New Year's resolution is to read more of the things that I write, you can do that by signing up for our daily NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com. I'm in charge of it and if you want it in your inbox every weekday morning, all you have to do is click here and then enter your email address.  

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My other resolution is to stop asking you guys to sign up for things. Alright, let's get to the picks. 

NFL Week 17 picks

Detroit (11-4) at Dallas (10-5)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)

First, I'd like to start off here by congratulating the Lions on winning their first division title in 30 years. Before this season, the last time they won a division title came in a division that doesn't even exist anymore (NFC Central) and their two biggest fans were Axel Foley and Tim "The Toolman" Taylor, who aren't even real people, so now that I'm thinking about it, maybe that last division title never happened. I don't know what's real anymore. 

One thing that is real, though, is the division title that they just won. Now, I'm not a psychologist, but I feel like when you win something for the first time in 30 years, you're bound to have a letdown and I could totally see that happening with the Lions this week. The first problem for the Lions is that this game is in Dallas. When the Cowboys play on the road, they're so bad that they can literally lose to anyone -- this is the same team that lost to the Cardinals on the road back in Week 3 -- but when they play at home, they destroy everyone.  

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The Cowboys have won 15 straight games at home and that includes going 7-0 so far this year. Not only are they winning, but none of these games are even close. In their seven victories, they've won by an average of 27.7 POINTS PER GAME. I feel like I need to repeat that: Their average margin of victory in home games is nearly FOUR TOUCHDOWNS. 

I'm not sure the Cowboys are going to beat the Lions by four touchdowns, but I'm also not going to rule it out. The Lions have not been good at stopping the pass this year -- I mean, Nick Mullens threw for 411 yards on them last week -- and they'll be facing a QB in Dak Prescott who is averaging more than 300 pass yards par game at home this year. 

Did I mention that the Cowboys are really good at home? Because the Cowboys are really good at home. 

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The pick: Cowboys 30-20 over Lions

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 17.

New Orleans (7-8) at Tampa Bay (8-7)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

With just two weeks to play in the regular season, the NFC South race has suddenly turned into the last "Jumanji" movie I saw: I had no interest in seeing it, but now that I'm watching it, I'm totally sucked in and I absolutely have to know how it ends. In somewhat related news, I have seen the two new Jumanji moveis way more than I care to admit. 

If the Saints and Buccaneers got sucked into a Jumanji board, there's no way the Saints would come out alive. They'd be eliminated from the game within 19 seconds. The Saints are 1-8 this season in any game where their opponent scores at least 18 points and a big reason for that is because Derek Carr has been totally underwhelming this year. When the Saints signed him, it looked like they were going to have the best quarterback in the division, but instead, they got a guy who constantly seems to melt down under pressure. 

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The embarrassing part for the Saints is that they'll be facing a QB this week who is being twice as productive at 10% of the price. The Saints are paying Carr an average of $37.5 million per year while the Buccaneers are only paying Baker Mayfield a base salary of $4 million for 2023. The Saints paid for a 2023 Ferrari, but they got a 1989 Plymouth Sundance and I'm guessing they're not too thrilled with that. On the other hand, the Buccaneers got their QB from the DVD bin at Walmart. Going in, you know everything in that bin is cheap, but there's always a chance you could find something special and that's what the Bucs have done with Baker. I love the DVD bin at Walmart. Every Jean-Claude Van Damme movie I own came from that bin. 

Heading into Week 16, Mayfield has more passing yards, more passing touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Carr. He's been objectively better than Carr for pretty much the entire season and I don't see that changing this week. 

This is a huge game and conventional wisdom says I should pick against Carr, who has a 10-year track record of losing huge games. The Buccaneers can clinch the division on Sunday with a win and I think that's going to happen, which is good news for Mayfield, who gets a $1 million bonus if the Bucs win the NFC South. 

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Let me tell you, that bonus could buy A LOT of DVDs from the DVD bin at Wal-Mart. 

The Saints haven't played an outdoor game since Week 5 and I feel like that could be a shock to their system this week. 

The pick: Buccaneers 27-20 over Saints

Miami (11-4) at Baltimore (12-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

As someone who once lived in a warm-weather state for six years (California), let me just say that there is nothing worse than being forced to visit a cold-weather city in late December. There's a reason you don't see people taking late December vacations to Baltimore. 

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The forecast for this week's game is calling for a high of 45 degrees, which might be a problem for the Dolphins. If you've ever been to Miami, you may have noticed that people start wearing jackets there when the temperature drops below 70 degrees. In Baltimore, no one wears a jacket until they're exhibiting at least three symptoms of frost bite. 

Although I've tried to convince myself that the Dolphins can play in cold weather, the numbers say otherwise: Since the start of the 2017 season, the Dolphins are 1-14 when the kickoff temperature is at 45 degrees or below and that includes an 0-4 record with Mike McDaniel as their coach. As things stand now, the temperature for this game is expected to be right around 45 degrees at kickoff. We'll find out if Mother Nature is a Dolphins fan this week, because if she is, she'll make sure that it's 46 or higher when this game starts. 

There's a lot riding on this game with the winner taking one giant step closer to earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs and the bye that comes with it (The Ravens will actually clinch the top seed if they win). 

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This game is also giving us two amazing matchups: First, we have the NFL's best passing offense in the Dolphins going up against a Ravens defense that only surrenders 185.7 yards per game through the air. The Dolphins played reasonably well against the Cowboys defense, but the Ravens are an even stiffer test. Baltimore leads the NFL in SACKS this year, which means Tua Tagovailoa is probably going to be facing a lot of pressure. Let's check out how Tua plays when he's under pressure:

That's not ideal. 

The other matchup we're getting in this game is that NFL's leading rushing offense in Baltimore going up against a Dolphins defense that only surrenders 90.8 yards per game on the ground. Although the Dolphins have been great at stopping the run, they've only faced two teams that currently rank in the NFL's top-10 in rushing yards (Bills and Eagles) and they lost both of those by an average of 21 points per game. 

When the weather gets cold, I generally pick substance over style, so I feel like that means I have to take the Ravens here. Also, the Dolphins likely won't have Jaylen Waddle (ankle), which definitely hurts when you're going up against one of the NFL's best defenses. 

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The pick: Ravens 30-23 over Dolphins

Pittsburgh (8-7) at Seattle (8-7)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

I'm not going to say the Steelers have a QB controversy brewing, but the Steelers might have a QB controversy brewing. Mason Rudolph has only played in one game this season and he already looks like the best QB on the roster. In the Steelers' win over the Bengals last week, Rudolph finished with a QB rating of 124, which I'm only noting because it means that he now has as many games with a 100 rating over the past six days as Kenny Pickett does in his entire career. 

Mike Tomlin knows he CANNOT send Rudolph back to the bench after the way he played in Week 16, so I'm guessing we'll be seeing Rudolph once again this week. 

Although the Steelers looked good against the Bengals in Week 16, I'm not sure that actually means anything and that's mostly because the Bengals are the ONLY team this season that has managed to make the Steelers offense look like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf. Through 15 games, the Steelers have only topped 340 yards twice and both of those came against the Bengals. If the Steelers were playing the Bengals this week, I'd love their chances, but they're not. 

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If you take those two Bengals games out, the Steelers have struggled to run the ball and they've struggled to pass the ball and it's hard to win in the NFL when you can't do either of those things. The Seahawks are 7-3 this season when they hold their opponent under 400 yards and based on what I've seen from the Steelers offense this year, I have to think the Seahawks can hold them to under 400 yards. Also, the Steelers offense has been especially bad on the road this year, averaging just 15.8 points per game, which is a big reason why they're 3-3 away from Pittsburgh. 

One other thing about this game is that it's being played in Seattle, which is a notoriously tough place to play for AFC teams. It's already one of the toughest place to plays in the NFL and when you only play there once every eight years, it gets even tougher, which is a big reason why the Seahawks are 16-4 in their past 20 homes games against AFC teams. 

I think we can all see where I'm going with this pick. 

The pick: Seahawks 23-17 over Steelers

Cincinnati (8-7) at Kansas City (9-6)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

I never thought I'd say this about the Chiefs, but I think they're starting to implode. Not only have they lost four of their past six games, but they're just 1-3 in the month of December, which marks the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career that the Chiefs have had a losing record in the month of December. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs haven't had a losing record in December since 2013. The Chiefs are in their losing era. 

Things have gotten so bad that there's a 40% chance that Mahomes is going to ask Andy Reid to cut the entire offensive line if they lose to the Bengals this week. 

"But John, we see quarterbacks yell at their offensive linemen all the time, this isn't a big deal." OK, that's fair, but Travis Kelce is also melting down. 

Kelce looks like he'd rather be at a Taylor Swift concert. 

The entire offense is falling apart: The receivers can't get open, the offensive line can't protect Mahomes and the Chiefs running game is nearly non-existent (They're averaging just 70 yards per game on the ground over the past three weeks). 

The Bengals are catching the Chiefs at the perfect time and although it might seem crazy to think they can win this game, the Bengals will be desperate and they almost always save their best performances for games against Kansas City. Since Zac Taylor took over as coach, the Bengals have faced the Chiefs four times and although the Chiefs have been favored in every single one of those games, the Bengals have gone 3-1. 

It might seem like a lot to ask Jake Browning to outduel Mahomes, but as we saw in Week 16, you don't necessarily have to do that to beat the Chiefs. The Raiders didn't complete a SINGLE pass after the first quarter and they still managed to win. The Bengals are 6-1 this season when they hold their opponent to 20 points or less and based on how the Chiefs are playing right now, it wouldn't be surprising at all if they do that on Sunday. 

The pick: Bengals 23-20 over Chiefs

NFL Week 17 picks: All the rest

Browns 27-17 over Jets
Bills 24-16 over Patriots
Colts 22-19 over Raiders
Rams 31-17 over Giants
Eagles 24-16 over Cardinals
Bears 20-17 over Falcons
49ers 34-20 over Commanders
Jaguars 20-16 over Panthers
Texans 19-16 over Titans
Broncos 20-13 over Chargers
Vikings 27-24 over Packers

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Browns would beat the Texans and guess what happened? The Browns beat the Texans. Now, did I know that Amari Cooper was going to set the franchise record for most receiving yards in a game with 265? Of course, I did. He has Joe Flacco throwing him the ball and with Joe Flacco, all things are possible. Flacco has only played in four games this year and he already leads the Browns in passing yards AND passing touchdowns. We are now just seven weeks away from Flacco leading the Browns to the Super Bowl and creating the most awkward offseason QB controversy of all-time. 

Worst pick: Last week, I picked against someone named Rudolph in a game that was being played on Christmas Eve and in the least surprising news ever, that decision backfired in my face. Rudolph has been leading Santa's sleigh for decades and not once has it crashed, not even the year when Blitzen had to sit out Christmas due to being in rehab. If I had taken any of that into consideration, there's no way I would have picked against Mason Rudolph. To add insult to injury, Steelers fans even sang "Rudolph the red-nosed Reindeer" after the win. 

I now hate that song. From now on, I will only be singing about Chet the Reindeer. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Team I'm 13-2 picking this year (Straight up): Panthers
Longest winning streak: Rams (Eight straight wins)

Team I'm 3-12 picking this year (Straight up): Texans 
Longest losing streak: Broncos (Five straight losses) 

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 16: 8-8
SU overall: 144-96

Against the spread in Week 16: 8-8
ATS overall: 123-107-10

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably trying to find a movie to buy in the DVD bin at Walmart.