Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I'm not sure how it happened, but the NFL regular season is about to be over. There are only 16 games left on the schedule and they'll be going down over the next two days starting with Steelers-Ravens on Saturday afternoon and ending with the Bills-Dolphins showdown on Sunday night. The next time I talk to you guys, not only will the season be over, but the playoffs will be set.
PLAYOFFS!? DON'T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS! (Please use your best Jim Mora voice when reading that).
OK fine, we won't talk about the playoffs just yet, Jim. Instead, we'll be taking a look at some NFL records that could go down this weekend, plus we'll be making some picks and bold predictions for Week 18 (By the way, if you're wondering what the current playoff picture looks like, you can check that out here).
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don't even have to tell all of your friends, just tell one friend and I'll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 18
If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then, just when you think there's no way we'll make any more picks, we make more picks.
For today's show, host Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson along with R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the three of them offered some of their best bets for Week 18.
The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here.
Will Brinson (1-2 in picks we shared here last week, 24-26-1 on the season)
- Patriots (-1.5) to cover against Jets
- Cowboys (-13.5) to cover against Commanders
- Seahawks (-2.5) to cover against Cardinals
R.J. White (0-3 in picks we shared here last week, 20-28-3 on the season)
- Cowboys OVER 29.5 team points vs. Commanders
- Ravens (+4) to cover against Steelers
- Giants (+5.5) to cover against Eagles
Katie Mox (No picks last week, 23-21 on the season)
- Jaguars (-3.5) to cover against Titans
- Buccaneers (-4.5) to cover against Panthers
- Rams at 49ers UNDER 41.5 total points
As for PropStarz, he handed out a few of his favorite props for the weekend, because when your nickname is PropStarz, that's what the people expect.
- Texans at Colts: Nico Collins OVER 73.5 receiving yards
- Vikings at Lions: Justin Jefferson OVER 83.5 receiving yards
PropStarz went 0-3 with his picks last week and is now 27-21 on the season (PropStarz started the season 2-7, so he's 25-14 since Week 4).
To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 18 -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here.
2. NFL records that could fall in Week 18
With the final week of the regular season coming up this weekend, it's become pretty clear that we could see some major NFL records get broken this year. With that in mind, CBSSports.com's Jeff Kerr decided to round up all the records that could go down over the next two days.
Here's a look at some of the biggest:
- Brock Purdy to break the yards-per-pass-attempt record. "Brock Purdy can break the NFL record for yards per attempt in a season, as he's averaging 9.6 yards per attempt through 16 games. Matt Ryan holds the record at 9.3 set in 2016. Purdy isn't expected to play on Sunday, which means the record is going to be his."
- Tyreek Hill has an outside shot at the single-season receiving record. "Hill is 248 yards away from setting the NFL receiving yards record, set by Calvin Johnson with 1,964 (2012). Hill has 1,717 yards this season, which makes him the first player to have multiple seasons over 1,700 yards."
- Puka Nacua likely to break rookie receiving record. "Nacua is on the verge of setting the NFL rookie record for catches and receiving yards in a season. Jaylen Waddle (2021) holds the rookie record for catches with 104 while Bill Groman (1960) holds the record for yards with 1,473. Nacua has 101 catches for 1,445 yards this season -- just four catches and 29 yards away from both marks."
- Brandon Aubrey on cusp of kicking record. "Aubrey is three field goals shy of setting the NFL record for most field goals made without a miss. Mike Vanderjagt was 37 of 37 in 2002 and Aubrey is 35 of 35 this year."
For a look at a few more records that could get broken this season, be sure to click here.
3. NFL Week 18 picks: Texans top Colts, Ravens upset Steelers
I hope you're ready for some more picks, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself.
The only thing colder than the temperature last week was our record against the spread. The five of us combined to go 1-4 in Week 17, which means that heading into Week 18, we now have a 45-36-3 record against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter.
Anyway, you know the drill here: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on.
- Pete Prisco: Ravens (+3.5) 24-21 over Steelers. From Prisco: "Who plays for the Ravens since they clinched the top seed? They might play some key starters for a bit. The Steelers need to have this game to have any chance to make the playoffs. But you know these two don't like each other. Even if guys like Lamar Jackson sit, I think the Ravens will win it. " For the rest of Prisco's Week 18 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan: Texans (+1) 28-24 over Colts. From Sullivan: "This is essentially a playoff game for the Colts and Texans. The winner punches their ticket to the playoffs and sets themselves up with the possibility of winning the AFC South if the Jaguars lose to the Titans on Sunday. ... With the rust dusted off Stroud for this matchup against the Colts, he should find success against a defense that he threw for 384 yards against back in Week 2. The Texans are also 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven divisional road games." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 18 picks, be sure to click here.
- Will Brinson: Bills (-3) to cover against Dolphins. From Brinson: "The Dolphins defense is down Bradley Chubb and the offense is down Jaylen Waddle. The Bills defense is playing much, much better lately and Buffalo has righted the ship healthwise. Bills roll here." For the rest of Brinson's Week 18 best bets, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani: Buccaneers (-4.5) 17-10 over Panthers. From Dajani: "The Panthers are coming off a deflating 26-0 loss to the Jaguars, and surely are just looking to finish out the season. Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS on the road this season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL." For the rest of Dajani's Week 18 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech: Bears 30-27 over Packers. From me: "The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and they'll be going into Green Bay with a rushing attack that averages 145.3 yards per game, which is the second best in the NFL. And they'll be going up against a Packers defense that has been horrible at stopping the run this season. The Packers are 0-4 this year when they surrender more than 155 rushing yards in a game and that's a number that Bears can certainly hit." For the rest of my Week 18 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 18 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBS Sports picks page here.
4. Bold predictions for Week 18: Bills win AFC East
Since you're probably tired of picks at this point, we're going to spice things up by giving out some bold predictions, which are like picks, but more fun. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Week 18, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, Garrett boldly predicted that Mason Rudolph would lead the Steelers to an upset win over the Seahawks, and that's exactly what happened.
Let's see what Garrett has in store for us this week.
Bold predictions for Week 18:
1. Bills join rare club by winning the AFC East. If the Bills beat the Dolphins on Sunday, they'll become just the fourth team in NFL history to win their division after being at least three games back with five games left to play. The prediction here is that the Bills finish the job by beating Miami.
2. Mason Rudolph leads Steelers to win over Ravens. For the third straight week, Garrett is riding the Rudolph train. The Steelers QB is already 2-0 on the season and Garrett has him getting to 3-0 with a win over the Ravens on Saturday.
3. Patriots beat Jets, but still dump Bill Belichick. If the Patriots lose on Sunday, Belichick will tie the NFL record for most losses ever by a head coach. Garrett doesn't see that happening, but he does think the Patriots will part ways with their head coach this offseason.
Garrett actually has five bold predictions for Week 18, and if you want to see each prediction along with his explanation for each prediction, you can check those out here.
5. 10 crazy predictions for the 2024 offseason
The offseason will officially be starting next week for more than half the NFL. Since we're going to see so many teams go into offseason mode starting on Monday, we thought we'd also go into offseason mode right now by offering some crazy predictions for the 2024 NFL offseason.
With that in mind, Jordan Dajani came up with a few crazy predictions for the offseason:
1. Patriots and Raiders will battle to hire Jim Harbaugh. "Michigan grad Tom Brady will go to work recruiting Harbaugh, but so will Robert Kraft. Brady and the Patriots will go head-to-head for the first time off the field in a dramatic recruiting battle that will ultimately be all for naught, as Harbaugh remains at Michigan."
2. Commanders trade for Bill Belichick. "Many are expecting the New England Patriots to part ways with legendary head coach Bill Belichick this offseason, but it's hard to imagine him being fired, and it doesn't seem like he will retire either given how close he is to Don Shula's record. That means he's being traded. ... I don't know what the two sides will land on in terms of a Day 2 or Day 3 pick, but new Commanders owner Josh Harris will want to make a splash move after parting ways with Ron Rivera. Trading for Belichick would certainly qualify as splashy."
3. NFL makes major change to kickoff rules. "In 2022, the NFL implemented a new fair catch rule, where returners could call for a fair catch behind their own 25-yard line, and the ball would be placed at the 25-yard line. This offseason, the league will make a very different change, taking the kickoff format from the XFL (You can see how the XFL does it here)."
4. Chargers hire Ben Johnson. "The 37-year-old was born in Charleston, South Carolina, went to high school in Asheville and attended college in Chapel Hill. Bringing back the "Carolina Kid" to resurrect the Panthers is something many will be hoping for, but that does not happen. Johnson looks at the state of the Panthers franchise, says no thank you and accepts another opportunity on the West Coast -- with Justin Herbert and the Chargers."
5. Backup QB market explodes. "This offseason, multiple backup quarterbacks will be paid $10+ million because their services will be desired by multiple teams. A few quarterbacks that could be attractive options in free agency are Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Drew Lock, Minshew and Mason Rudolph."
To see Jordan's full story, which includes a total of 10 crazy predictions, be sure to click here.
6. Extra points: Ravens sign Dalvin Cook
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Dalvin Cook headed to Baltimore. The four-time Pro Bowler has decided to sign with the Ravens. Cook was cut by the Jets this week and after clearing waivers, he was free to sign with any team. Cook will likely compete with Melvin Gordon for time as the third running back behind Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
- NFLPA survey identifies top coordinators. The NFLPA surveyed hundreds of players over the past few months to find out who the top coordinators are in the NFL this year. The NFLPA released a top-five list for offensive coordinators, defensive coordinators and special teams coordinators and the Cowboys were the only team to land a coach on all three lists. The top offensive coordinator was Miami's Frank Smith while the top defensive coordinator was Detroit's Aaron Glenn. You can see the full coordinator rankings here.
- Raiders stars pushing for Antonio Pierce to get full-time job. If Mark Davis listens to the players in the Raiders locker room, there's a good chance that Antonio Pierce will get the full-time coaching job in Las Vegas. Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams are both pushing for Pierce to get the job, which means he has star support on both sides of the ball.
- NFL Is extremely popular. In news that probably won't surprise you, the NFL is still extremely popular. Of the 100 most-watched broadcasts of 2023, 93 of them were NFL games, including 19 of the top 20 (The Macy's Thanksgiving parade was the only non-NFL game in the top-20). The most watched sporting event of 2023 was Kansas City's 38-35 win over Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII. You can see the full list of most-watched events here.
