NFL Week 2 early odds: Patriots not favored to win for first time since 2016
Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 2
For the past two years, the Patriots have been favored to win every single game they've played in, but that's something that could change this week.
The game on Sunday between the Jaguars and the Patriots has opened as a pick'em, which is notable because New England isn't favored to win. As long as the point spread doesn't change, this game will mark the first time the Patriots haven't been favored to win since Week 2 in 2016. During the 2016 season, the Pats were an underdog in Week 1 game against the Cardinals and were involved in a pick'em game with the Texans in Week 2.
Of course, it's almost unfair to use those two games, because both of them were played during Tom Brady's four-game suspension to start the 2016 season. If we only include games where Brady actually played, then the Patriots run of being a favorite is even more impressive. With Brady as their starting quarterback, the last time the Patriots weren't favored came in Week 11 of the 2014 season when they beat the Colts 42-20 as a 3-point underdog.
The Patriots actually have an insanely good track record when they don't open as a favorite. Since 2014, the Patriots have gone 6-1 straight-up in games where they weren't favored to win.
Basically, if the Patriots are playing in a pick'em game or if they open as an underdog, it's not a horrible idea to bet money on them.
Who else should you think about betting on in Week 2?
Let's get to the rest of the early odds and find out.
(Monday morning update, 11:40 a.m. ET: Bettors are apparently pounding the Patriots. Although the game opened as pick'em, New England is currently favored by 1.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.)
NFL Week 2 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Ravens (1-0) at Bengals (1-0), Thursday
Opening line: Pick'em
After watching both teams come away with a win on Sunday, Ravens-Bengals has now turned into one of the most exciting games of Week 2, but that doesn't mean it's going to be an easy one to bet. On one hand, you have a Bengals team that has dominated the Ravens over the past few years. The Bengals have won seven of their past nine against Baltimore, including the season finale last year when the Bengals had nothing to play for, but still beat the Ravens as an eight-point underdog. On the other hand, betting on the Bengals is never a good idea in primetime. The Bengals are 2-8 straight-up in their past 10 primetime games.
Panthers (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)
Opening line: Falcons, -3.5 points
If there's one thing that could fix the Falcons' offensive woes, it's a game against the Panthers. Over the past three years, the Falcons are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS at home against Carolina and they've won those games by an average margin of 11.3 points. Even if the Falcons win though, there's a chance the Panthers could cover: Since the beginning of the 2016 season, Carolina is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog, which is the best mark in the NFC over that span.
Chargers (0-1) at Bills (0-1)
Opening line: Chargers, -7.5 points
After watching the Bills get destroyed on Sunday, it appears that the oddsmakers in Vegas have lost all faith in Buffalo, which would explain why a West Coast team traveling east is a 7.5 point favorite. This will mark just the second time since 2014 that the Chargers have been favored by a touchdown or more in the Eastern TIme Zone. The only other time came last season when they failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite in a 14-7 win over the Jets. You should keep an eye on the Bills' quarterback situation if you plan on betting this game and that's because Nathan Peterman could be headed to the bench after registering a 0.0 QB rating in Week 1. And yes, that's the same Nathan Peterman who threw five interceptions in one half against the Chargers last season. The way he's playing, he might double that if he ends up starting against the Chargers. On the Chargers' end, one thing to keep an eye on is whether or not Joey Bosa plays. The Chargers have won five of the past six games in this series, including last season, when they won 54-24 as a 7-point favorite.
Vikings (1-0) at Packers (1-0)
Opening line: Packers, -2.5 points
If Aaron Rodgers owns a calendar, he probably circled this game on it as soon as the schedule came out. This game will mark the first time that Rodgers has gotten to face the Vikings since last year, when Minnesotawith a vicious hit in Week 6. However, just because Rodgers is on the field, doesn't mean the Packers are definitely going to win. The Vikings have won four of their past five against the Packers, including two of the past three in Green Bay.
This is one point spread that could jump throughout the week and that's due to the health of Aaron Rodgers. Although he pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Bears on Sunday night, it's pretty clear that his left knee was still bothering him after the game. If Rodgers is healthy, here's one big reason you might want to bet Green Bay: The Packers are 10-0 in their past 10 September home games and 8-2 ATS.
Texans (0-1) at Titans (0-1)
Opening line: NO LINE
This is the only game of Week 2 that doesn't have an opening line yet and that's because oddsmakers don't have any idea who's going to be on the field for the Titans. During their opener against the Dolphins on Sunday, Marcus Mariota (elbow), Taylor Lewan (concussion) and Delanie Walker (ankle) all left the game with an injury. Although Walker's injury appeared the most serious, there's a chance the Titans could be missing all three players this week. If Mariota is out, the Titans would be turning to Blaine Gabbert, who has a career record of 11-34. That's not a record I would want to bet on.
Browns (0-0-1) at Saints (0-1)
Opening line: Saints, -7.5 points
Not only did the Browns end their 17-game losing streak on Sunday, but they also covered the spread, which is a borderline miracle for a team that went 4-12 ATS last season. The only thing worse than the Browns' 4-12 ATS record from 2017 is their ATS record against NFC teams. Since 2015, the Browns are 1-11 ATS against the NFC, which is the worst mark by any team in the NFL over the span. Although it might be tempting to bet the Saints, they've had some serious trouble covering at home. Including their opener against the Bucs, the Saints are 4-5 ATS in home games dating back to the beginning of the 2017 season (7-2 straight-up). Believe it or not, but the Browns have actually won five of the past six games in this series.
Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (0-0)
Opening line: Jets, -1
In what might come as a shocker, the Jets are actually favored to win a game. During the entire 2017 season, the Jets were only favored to win against two teams, and they went 1-1 in those games both straight-up and ATS. If there's one time you should think about betting the Jets, it's in a home game and that's because the Jets had the best home ATS record in 2017 (This stat is not made up, I swear). The Jets finished the year 7-1 ATS at the MetLife Stadium. On the other hand, the Dolphins were just 2-6 ATS on the road, although that was with Jay Cutler at quarterback, not Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have won three of four in this series, with Tannehill going 2-0 in his last two starts against the Jets.
Chiefs (1-0) at Steelers (0-0-1)
Opening line: Steelers, -5.5
After covering as a road underdog in Week 1, the Chiefs are going to try and do it again in Week 2 in Pittsburgh. When it comes to covering as a road underdog, the Chiefs are actually pretty good at it. Since 2016, the Chiefs are 6-2 ATS as a road dog, which is the second best mark in the NFL over the span. The problem for the Chiefs is that the Steelers are the one team that Andy Reid seems to have trouble with. Since taking over the Kansas City head coaching job in 2013, Reid is just 1-4 against the Steelers. This week could be different though, and that's because we could see a Steelers team that has to deal with another week of Le'Veon Bell drama. Also, the Steelers aren't very good at covering at home. Including last season's playoffs, the Steelers went just 3-6 ATS at home in 2017.
Eagles (1-0) at Buccaneers (1-0)
Opening line: Eagles, -3 points
When it comes to covering the spread, the Eagles were the best team in the NFL last season. However, they did seem to have one weakness: Covering as a road favorite. In 2017, the Eagles went just 2-2 ATS as a road favorite. On the other hand, betting against the Eagles has been a horrible idea, lately, with Philly covering in four straight games dating back to last season's playoffs. Speaking of covering, the Bucs covered the biggest spread of the 2018 season when they beat the Saints 48-40 on Sunday in a game where Tampa was a 9.5-point underdog. If the Bucs pull off the upset against Philly, we might start hearing whispers about a potential quarterback controversy in Tampa.
Colts (0-1) at Redskins (1-0)
Opening line: Redskins, -3.5 points
After shaking off 616 days worth of rust in the Colts' opener, Andrew Luck will head to Washington this week to play in his first road game since December 2016. Although it's impossible to predict what Luck will do, the Colts did go 6-2 ATS after a loss the last time Luck was on the field in 2016. That being said, if there's one time you should bet against the Colts, it's Week 2. Over the past five years, the Colts are 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS while playing in Week 2. As for the Redskins, they've covered in three of their past four games dating back to last season.
Cardinals (0-1) at Rams (0-0)
Opening line: Rams, -10 points
This game will mark just the third time since 2013 that the Rams have been a double-digit favorite. The crazy thing about that fact is that the Rams have actually covered both times where they were favored by 10 or more points. Although the Rams can cover big point spreads, they haven't been very good at covering in home games. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Rams have gone just 3-5 ATS at home. On the other hand, if there's one team that hasn't figured out Sean McVay's offense, it's the Cardinals. In two games last season, the Rams went 2-0 straight-up and ATS with wins of 32-16 and 33-0.
Lions (0-0) at 49ers (0-1)
Opening line: 49ers, -3.5 points
The Lions don't play on the west coast often, but then they do, it's almost always turns into a thriller. Since 2012, the Lions have gone 0-3 on the west coast (1-2 ATS), but all three losses have come by just one score. Although that's not an ugly stat, this is: The Lions haven't won in San Francisco since 1975. This game will mark only the third time since 2016 that the 49ers have been a home favorite and unfortunately for them, they're 0-3 both straight-up and ATS in those games.
Raiders (0-0) at Broncos (1-0)
Opening line: Broncos, -4 points
The Broncos have opened as a favorite here, which probably shouldn't be that surprising, considering that Denver has won five of their past six home games against the Raiders. One thing Denver hasn't been able to do though, is cover the spread against divisional opponents. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Broncos are just 3-8-1 ATS against AFC West teams, which is the worst divisional mark of any team in the NFL over the past two seasons (The Raiders are only slightly better at 4-8). One thing about the Broncos is that they almost always win in Week 2: Since 2013, the Broncos are 5-0 both straight-up and ATS in Week 2. In that same span, we've also learned that the Broncos are basically unbeatable in September homes games with Denver going 12-0 straight-up in in the month and 8-2-2 ATS.
Patriots (1-0) at Jaguars (1-0)
Opening line: Pick'em
If you believe in revenge games, then you might want to bet all your money on the Jaguars. The last time we saw these two teams on the same field came in the AFC Championship game, when the Jags blew a 20-10 lead over the final 6:30 of the fourth quarter in a game the Patriots would win 24-10 (The Jags did cover as a 7.5 point underdog). If this point spread stands, it will mark the first regular season game since 2016 where the Patriots haven't been favored to win. One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the health of Leonard Fournette, who didn't return in Week 1 after injuring his hamstring.
Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3 points
The Cowboys looked ugly in Week 1, but if anything can fix that, it's a primetime game. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Cowboys have gone 9-2 in night games, including a 19-3 win over the Giants last season where they covered the spread as a 6-point favorite. On the other hand, the Giants have struggled in primetime, going just 3-6 straight-up in that same timespan. The Cowboys swept this series last season and outscored the Giants by a total score of 49-13. Those two wins were a big reason why the Cowboys went 5-1 ATS against NFC East teams in 2017, which was the best ATS record of any NFC team in divisional games last season.
Seahawks (0-1) at Bears (0-1), Monday
Opening line: Bears, -3 points
After getting sacked six times in the Seahawks' season opener, Russell Wilson might end up spending this entire game running for his life with Seattle going up against a suddenly lethal Bears defense that includes Khalil Mack. One thing the Seahawks do have going for them is the fact that they're nearly unbeatable in primetime. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Seahawks are 17-3-1 straight-up in primetime, including 8-1-1 on the road. On the other hand, the Bears have struggled at night, going 3-7 straight-up in their past 10 primetime games. The Bears aren't much better as a home favorite, going just 1-4 ATS since 2016. One odd stat to keep in mind for this game is that the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their past four Week 2 games.
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