In the early odds for Week 2, the Patriots have opened as a 14.5-point favorite over the Dolphins, which probably shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, considering Miami lost its opener by 49 points to Baltimore (59-10).
Although it's not that odd to see the Patriots favored by 14.5 or more points in a game, it is odd to seem them favored by that many points on the road. As a matter of fact, even though the Patriots have been the best team in the NFL for years, this week will mark just the second time since 2009 that New England has been favored by at least 14.5 points on the road.
The last time it happened came in December 2012, when they were favored by 14.5 to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The last time they were favored by more than that 14.5 that their favored to win by this week came in October 2009 when they were favored by 15.5 to beat the Buccaneers on the road.
The first NFL Sunday is in the books and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe right here.
According to Pro Football Reference, this game will mark just the sixth time that the Patriots have been favored by 14 or more on the road in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. In the previous five games, the Patriots have gone 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread (ATS).
Covering 14.5 on the road hasn't been an easy thing to do for NFL teams. If we include all 32 teams, there have only been 11 instances where a team was favored by 14 or more points on the road over the past 10 years. In those 11 games, the favored team has gone 10-1 straight-up, but just 4-7 ATS.
The Patriots are one of only two double-digit favorites this week. To find out who the other double-digit favorite it and where all the other point spreads landed this week, let's get to the odds.
NFL Week 2 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Buccaneers (0-1) at Panthers (0-1), Thursday
Opening line: Panthers, -5
Jamies Winston had an ugly game in Week 1 with three interceptions, and if history is any indication, things aren't going to get any better this week. Since his rookie year in 2015, Winston has gone 0-3 straight-up in Thursday games and 0-3 ATS. The Buccaneers are also just 1-3 overall in their past four games against the Panthers (2-2 ATS). Of course, maybe you shouldn't bet on the Panthers either, and that's because they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five Thursday games (2-3 straight-up).
Opening line: 49ers, -1.5
If there's one time you want to bet on the Bengals, it's when they're playing an NFC team at home. Since Andy Dalton's rookie year, the Bengals have gone 10-4-1 against NFC teams at Paul Brown Stadium, including 9-6 ATS. The Bengals have been even better against the NFC West in that span, going 6-2 straight-up and 5-1-2 ATS. If you're thinking about betting the 49ers, just keep in mind that they almost always struggle in the eastern time zone. Since 2015, San Francisco has gone 1-12 in games played in the eastern time zone and just 4-9 ATS. That one win came on Sunday in Tampa, but it took three interceptions from Jameis Winston (and two pick-sixes) for the 49ers to win and cover. One thing to keep your eye in this game is the health of Joe Mixon. The Bengals running back left Cincy's Week 1 game after suffering an ankle injury.
Opening line: Chargers, -2.5
Although betting on a home underdog can be tempting, you might not want to do it in this situation. Over the past five years, the Lions have been a home dog a total of 17 times. and in those games, they've gone 6-11 both straight-up and ATS. On the Chargers' end, they're 6-1 in their past seven games against NFC teams and they've gone 5-2 ATS in those games.
Opening line: Packers, -3
If there's one time you don't want to bet against the Packers, it's when they're playing a home game in the month of September. Although the Packers are known for the home-field advantage that the frozen tundra gives them in winter months, it turns out they're actually tougher to beat in the fall. In their past 13 home games played in September, the Packers have gone 12-0-1 straight-up and 9-4 ATS. On the other hand, if there's one team that might be able to end Green Bay's 13-game unbeaten streak, it's the Vikings. Minnesota has owned the series against Green Bay over the past few years. In their past seven meetings, the Vikings have gone 5-1-1 straight-up and 5-2 ATS.
Opening line: Titans, -3
If anyone was glad to see Andrew Luck retire, it was probably the Titans. During Luck's career, the Titans went 0-12 against Luck. Of course, that might be because they've always been horrible against the Colts. Since 2009, these two teams have played 20 times and the Colts have gone 17-3 straight-up and 6-12-2 ATS. The Titans will likely go into this game with some confidence though, and that's because they went 2-0 both straight-up and ATS against the Colts in 2017 when Jacoby Brissett was Indy's starting quarterback.
Patriots (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)
Opening line: Patriots, -14.5
If the Patriots have one form of kryptonite, it seems to be South Beach, because they always seem to struggle when they travel to Miami. Forget covering the spread, the Patriots have had trouble just winning in South Florida. Since 2012, the Patriots have gone 1-6 straight-up in Miami and just 2-5 ATS. That being said, the Patriots have been dominant in games where they're favored by 14 or more points. Since 2015, the Patriots have gone 6-0 both straight-up and ATS when favored by 14 or more. Not helping Miami's cause is the fact that the entire locker room is Antonio Brown will be making his debut with the Patriots.and
Opening line: Bills, -2.5
If this point spread seems weird to you, it should, and that's because the Bills are almost never road favorites. This game will mark the first time since 2017 that Buffalo has been favored in a road game, and unfortunately for the Bills, they don't seem to play well when they're favored on the road. Over the past five years, the Bills are 3-6 straight-up as road favorites and 2-5-1 ATS. The Bills have also never beaten Eli Manning, going 0-3 straight-up and 0-2-1 ATS. Of course, if the Bills are going to beat Eli, now's the time to do it: The Giants are just 6-19 straight-up in their past 25 games.
Seahawks (1-0) at Steelers (0-1)
Opening line: Steelers, -4
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has been nearly unbeatable during his NFL career, but if there's one time to bet against him, it's when he's playing on the road in September. Over the past five years, the Seahawks are just 1-8 straight-up and 0-8-1 ATS in September road games. If we go back to his rookie year in 2012, his record still isn't great, with the Seahawks going just 3-10 straight-up and 2-10-1 ATS in September road games. As for the Steelers, if there's one thing Mike Tomlin has been good at in his career, it's avoiding an 0-2 start. Since 2007, the Steelers have only started 0-2 once (2013).
Opening line: Cowboys, -7
The fact that Dallas is favored by seven points in this game should be good news to Cowboys fans. In the past seven games where the Cowboys has been favored by a touchdown or more, they've gone 7-0 straight-up and 5-2 ATS (This total includes the Cowboys' Week 1 win over the Giants). The Cowboys have also been dominant against the Redskins, going 7-2 straight-up in their past nine games and 6-3 ATS. This game will mark the first time in five years that the Redskins have been an underdog of seven or more points at home.
Opening line: Ravens, -13.5
This game marks just the 14th time in franchise history that the Ravens have been favored by 13 or more points. In those 13 prior games, the Ravens have gone 13-0 straight-up and 8-5 ATS (Under John Harbaugh, that record is 9-0 straight-up, 5-4 ATS). Although the Ravens have been a good team under Harbaugh, they've struggled against NFC teams over the past few years. Since 2015, the Ravens are 5-11 straight-up against the NFC and just 4-11-1 ATS. If you're a matchup person, one thing to keep in mind in this game is that the Cardinals had the worst rushing defense in the NFL last season and they'll be playing a Ravens team that led the AFC in rushing.
Jaguars (0-1) at Texans (0-1)
Opening line: Texans, -9.5
The reason the Jaguars are such a big underdog is because Nick Foles won't be playing in this game. Foles is expected to miss several weeks , which means Jacksonville will be moving forward with rookie sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew under center. Of course, it might not matter who the Jaguars' QB is and that's because the Texans have dominated Jacksonville since hiring Bill O'Brien in 2014. Over the past five years, the Texans have gone 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 ATS. That being said, one thing the Texans haven't been able to do under O'Brien is cover a large spread. The last time Houston covered a point spread of nine or more points came in 2012, since then, they've gone 0-4 ATS.
Opening line: Chiefs, -8.5
Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 21-3 straight-up against divisional opponents and 16-8 ATS. The Chiefs have also dominated the Raiders, going 8-1 in their past nine games (6-3 ATS). One thing that could make the Chiefs a risky bet this week is the fact that they're dealing with multiple injuries. Not only is Patrick Mahomes dealing with a slight left ankle injury, but Tyreek Hill isn't expected to play in Week 1.
Opening line: Broncos, -1
If anyone knows how to attack the Bears defense, it's likely Vic Fangio and that's because he was the Bears defensive coordinator last year, a job he held until January, when the Broncos hired him as head coach. Ironically, the Bears could be walking into a Bear trap in this game. Not only are they going up against their former coordinator, but they have to play a Broncos team that's unbeatable at home in September: Since Sept. 30, 2012, the Broncos have gone 13-0 straight-up and 7-4-2 ATS. On the flip side, the Bears have been horrible in September road games, going 1-6 both straight-up and ATS in their past seven.
Opening line: Rams, -3
If you believe in revenge games, then you might want to bet all your money on the Saints. The last time we saw these two teams on the same field came in the NFC Championship game, when the Saints lost after the officiating crew made the most egregious no-call in NFL history. Besides the revenge factor, another reason to like the Saints is the fact that they went 7-1 straight-up on the road last season (6-2 ATS). Although the Rams were equally good at home (7-1), they didn't do as well covering the spread (3-4-1). These two teams played in the regular season last year with the Saints pulling out a 45-35 win as a 1.5-point underdog.
Opening line: Pick'em
The Falcons got off to a rough start in Week 1, but a home primetime game might be exactly what they need to fix things. Over the past five years, the Falcons have gone undefeated in home night games, going 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS. Of course, the Eagles are also pretty good at night. In their past 10 primetime games, Philly has gone 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 ATS.
Brown (0-1) at Jets (0-1), Monday
Opening line: Browns, -2.5
For the second year in a row, the Browns and Jets will be meeting in primetime. Back in 2018, the Browns covered as a 3-point home favorite in a 21-17 win Thursday night win over the Jets. However, there's going to be a big difference this time around and that's the fact that this Week 2 game is going to be played in New York. That could be trouble for a Browns team that has an ugly 2-22 record straight-up in road games since 2016 (9-14-1 ATS). On the other hand, the Browns might not have anything to worry about because the Jets haven't won a Monday night home game since 2011. Since then, they've gone 0-4 straight-up and 2-2 ATS.