After watching the Dolphins get blown out by an average of 39 points per game through the first three weeks of the season, oddsmakers are basically expecting another bloodbath on Sunday. In the early odds for Week 4, the Dolphins have opened as a 17-point home underdog to the Chargers.
To put that in perspective, this will Patriots closed as an 18-point road favorite).that a road team has been favored by 17 or more points, and two of those instances have happened with this year's Dolphins (besides this game, it also happened in Week 2 when the
Unfortunately for oddsmakers, betting against the Dolphins has become an easy way to make money. No matter how big the point spread gets, the Dolphins haven't been able to cover it as they've gone 0-3 against the spread (ATS) this year.
The good news for the Dolphins is that in the four previous games where a road team was favored by 17 or more points, the home team went 3-1 ATS.
The Chargers are the only team this week favored by double digits.
So what do the rest of the point spreads look like? Let's get to the early odds and find out.
Week 3 is in the books and there's a lot to go over, so be sure to check out John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough join host Will Brinson to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and subscribe here for your daily dose of NFL goodness.
NFL Week 4 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Packers, -4.5
Although the Packers are known for the home-field advantage that the frozen tundra gives them in winter months, it turns out they're actually tougher to beat in the fall. In their past 15 home games played in September, the Packers have gone 14-0-1 straight-up and 11-4 ATS, which includes winning and covering against the Broncos on Sunday. The Packers are also 3-0 ATS on the season. As for the Eagles, although they're 0-3 ATS this year, they're 8-3 straight-up in primetime games since the beginning of the 2017 season (7-4 ATS).
Opening line: Falcons, -4.5
If there's one team you should probably stay away from this week, it's the Atlanta Falcons, who seem to forget how to play football when they're playing against an AFC team. In their past 11 games against the AFC, the Falcons have gone 1-10 straight up and 0-11 ATS. That is not a typo. They have not covered in any of their past 11 games against the AFC, and that includes Sunday's game against the Colts. As for the Titans, they've actually been pretty good against the NFC, going 7-3 both straight-up and ATS in their past 10 games against the conference. Also, all three of those losses came by five points or less.
Patriots (3-0) at Bills (3-0)
Opening line: Patriots, -7
This has basically one of the most lopsided divisional rivalries in the NFL over the past 10 years. Since 2009, the Patriots have gone 17-3 straight-up against the Bills, although they've gone just 9-10-1 ATS. Of course, that doesn't mean you should bet on the Bills, and that's because the Patriots have won five straight in this series, and all five of those wins have come by 12 or more points.
Opening line: Chiefs, -6.5
If the Chiefs have one weakness under Andy Reid, it's beating NFC teams on the road. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Chiefs are 0-4 straight-up and 0-3-1 ATS in road games against NFC Teams. Over the past five years, it's been almost as bad with the Chiefs going 2-8 straight-up and 2-6-2 ATS. On the other hand, this probably isn't the year you want to bet against the Chiefs as they're 3-0 ATS on the season. As for the Lions, they've covered their past four games against AFC teams while going 3-1 straight-up in those games.
Raiders (1-2) at Colts (2-1)
Opening line: Colts, -7
Whatever you do, don't bet on the Raiders in this game, and that's because they're horrible on the road. In their past 16 road games, the Raiders have gone 2-14 straight-up and 3-12-1 ATS, a total that includes their Sunday loss to the Vikings. That road record isn't good news for a Raiders team that won't be playing another home game until November. The downside of all this for the Raiders is that they're playing a Colts team that's nearly unbeatable at home. Including their win over the Falcons on Sunday, the Colts have won seven straight games in Indianapolis while going 4-2-1 ATS in those games.
Chargers (1-2) at Dolphins (0-3)
Opening line: Chargers, -17
If there's one time you don't want to bet on the Chargers, it's when they're a huge favorite. Since Philip Rivers was drafted in 2004, the Chargers have been favored by 13 or more points a total of 14 times, and in those 14 games, they've gone just 2-12 ATS (12-2 straight-up). As for the Dolphins, they're 0-6 both straight-up and ATS in their past six games dating back to last season and haven't come close to covering a single time.
Opening line: Giants, -3
After leading the Giants to a thrilling win in Week 3, Daniel Jones will try to do something that Eli Manning struggled to do over the past few years: Win a home game. In their past 15 home games, the Giants have gone an ugly 4-11 straight-up and they haven't been much better ATS, going 4-10-1. If Jones is going to turn things around, the Redskins are probably a good team to start with. Since the beginning of 2017, the Redskins are just 1-6 straight-up in divisional road games (2-5 ATS).
Opening line: Ravens, -5.5
If the Browns want to prove they're not the same old Browns, then winning this game would probably help, because beating the Ravens is something the old Browns almost never did. Since 2009, the Browns have gone 3-17 straight-up against the Ravens (11-8-1 ATS). The Browns have also had some serious problems winning divisional road games. In their past 10 road games against AFC North teams, they've gone 1-9 straight-up and 3-6-1 ATS. As for the Ravens, although they've played well at home recently with five wins in a row dating back to last season, they're just 1-4 ATS in those games.
Opening line: Texans, -4
Although the Panthers won on the road in Week 3, Carolina hasn't really been that good away from home recently. In their past 11 road games, the Panthers have gone 3-8 both straight-up and ATS. One thing that's not clear in this game is if Cam Newton is going to play, and if he doesn't, that might be a good thing for bettors, or a bad thing, depending on your point of view. Betting against Newton has actually become profitable, with the Panthers going just 1-7 ATS in his last eight starts (0-8 straight-up). As for the Texans, they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five games against NFC teams.
Buccaneers (1-2) at Rams (3-0)
Opening line: Rams, -9.5
The Buccaneers have been one of the worst road teams in the NFL over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Bucs have gone just 3-14 straight-up on the road, which includes an ATS record of 6-10-1. Although they're bad on the road, the Bucs have actually been surprisingly good on the west coast. Over the past 10 years, they're 6-1 ATS in games played in the pacific time zone. As for the Rams, this game will mark the eighth time under Sean McVay that L.A. has been favored by 9.5 or more points. In the seven previous games, the Rams have gone 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 ATS. One bet you might want to consider in this game is the over and that's because the Rams are averaging exactly 36 points per game at home since the beginning of the 2018 season.
Opening line: Seahawks, -4
Playing at home might be an advantage for some NFL teams, but that's definitely not the case for the Cardinals. Including their loss to the Panthers on Sunday, the Cards have gone just 1-8-1 straight-up in home games since the beginning of last season (5-5 ATS), and now, they'll be facing a Seahawks team that they haven't beat at home since 2012. In the six seasons since then, the Cards have gone 0-5-1 (1-4-1 ATS) against Seattle at home. The Seahawks are 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 road games.
Vikings (2-1) at Bears (1-1)
Opening line: Bears, -2.5
Although the Bears lost their home opener this year, they've actually been pretty unbeatable at home over the past few years. In their past 10 home games, they've gone 8-2 both straight-up and ATS. They've also gone 5-1 ATS in their past six games against the Vikings. Speaking of the Vikings, it's always quite the risk to bet on them in a road game as they're just 1-4 both straight-up and ATS in their past five games away from home.
Jaguars (1-2) at Broncos (0-3)
Opening line: Broncos, -3
The Jaguars better hope that Gardner Minshew saved some of his Minshew Magic for this game, because the Jags have been notoriously bad on the road. In their past 12 games away from home, the Jags have gone just 2-10 straight-up and 3-8-1 ATS. That being said, they're 2-0 ATS this season when Minshew is the starting quarterback, so it could be smart to ride that wave until it crashes. As for the Broncos, they've lost six of their past seven at home dating back to last season, which might be a good reason to stay away from them.
Opening line: Cowboys, -3
If there's one time when the Cowboys seem to be a safe bet, it's when they're a road favorite. In the past 20 games where that's happened -- all under Jason Garrett -- the Cowboys have gone 17-3 straight-up and 13-6-1 ATS. Although the Saints won't have Drew Brees in this game, they still have one of the best home-field advantages in football. In their past 15 games at home, the Saints have gone 13-2 straight-up and one of those losses came in the 2018 regular season finale when New Orleans was resting many of its starters.
Opening line: Steelers, -5
The Steelers might be winless, but there's a lot of reasons to like them in this game. For one, they're 9-1 straight-up in their past 10 games against the Bengals (7-3 ATS). The Steelers are also undefeated in home Monday night games under Mike Tomlin (5-0). Also, if there's one team you want to stay away from in primetime, it's probably the Bengals. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Bengals have gone an ugly 0-9 straight-up in road primetime games and 2-6-1 ATS.