We had a great time last week, as my top picks went 4-1. The Pittsburgh Steelers were too much for the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts blew out the New York Jets, the beat-up Denver Broncos couldn't put up a fight against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers upset the New Orleans Saints in primetime. The one matchup I missed was claiming the Los Angeles Chargers could cover against the Carolina Panthers. After watching Justin Herbert take the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire the prior week, I thought this would be a great chance to earn his first win against a Carolina offense that did not have Christian McCaffrey.
This week, I'm hopping on three favorites and predicting two upsets that could happen in Week 4. In Week 3, favorites were 8-8 against the spread while home teams went 7-9 against the spread. Still, teams that were at least touchdown favorites are 11-3 against the spread so far this season -- which is the highest cover percentage through Week 3 since 1990. I'll be jumping on a couple of those this week as well.
All odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 9-6
Overall ATS record: 27-20-1
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 4? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down their best bets and size up every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Cowboys -4.5
Baker Mayfield and the Browns are above .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 2-1 record. This almost doesn't feel like an accomplishment, however, as they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington over the past two weeks. I'm not sure I'm ready to claim that the Browns have turned over a new leaf just yet. While the Cowboys are 1-2, they have the most explosive offense in the league are going up against a sub-par secondary this week. Cleveland is on a seven-game road losing streak against the spread, which is tied for the third-longest streak over the last 10 seasons. The Browns have lost each game during this streak by five-plus points, so I'm rolling with Dallas on Sunday.
The pick: Cowboys 35-24
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Seahawks -6.5
The Dolphins registered a dominant, 31-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, but I'm not sure if anyone watched that game and changed their minds on the Dolphins' potential in 2020. Miami can be solid, but Seattle is a legitimate contender led by a potential MVP. Last week, Russell Wilson became the fifth quarterback in NFL history to throw five or more touchdown passes in consecutive games. He's the first quarterback with four or more touchdown passes in each of the first three games of a season and leads the NFL with a total of 14 passing touchdowns. Those are the most recorded by a quarterback in the first three games of a season in NFL history. In the regular season, since 2012, Seattle is 17-7-2 against the spread (71%) on the road in the Eastern Time Zone -- which is the best mark in NFL. Don't overthink this one.
The pick: Seahawks 30-17
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Colts -2.5
It's officially Nick Foles time in Chicago, and he will make his first start with the Bears against his old offensive coordinator this Sunday. During the Bears' 30-26 come-from-behind victory over the Atlanta Falcons last week, Foles completed 16 of 29 passes for 188 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. It was especially impressive since he wasn't inserted into the game until the third quarter, and led three straight touchdown drives to keep the Bears undefeated. The Falcons certainly don't have the best secondary in the world, but Chicago's offense looked as good as it has all season with Foles at the helm. As for Indy, through three weeks the Colts have the best overall defense in the NFL when it comes to yards allowed per game (225.3), and the best passing defense by yards allowed per game (132). The combined record of opponents they have faced so far is just 1-8, however, and Foles in this new offense will present a different kind of challenge for Indy this Sunday. I'll hop on the Foles train and go with the upset.
The pick: Bears 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Bengals -3
I never thought Joe Burrow would record his first career tie before his first career win, but here we are. Despite the 0-2-1 record, The Bengals have been outscored by just a total of eight points this season. They have been fairly competitive in every matchup and their bout with the Jaguars should be another close game. The thing is, I don't think they should be three-point favorites over Gardner Minshew and Co. Minshew is 7-3 against the spread as an underdog in his career, including 2-0 this season. Cincinnati is 1-5-0 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite, including 0-3 against the spread last season. Over the last ten seasons, Jacksonville has the best cover percentage in the NFL on seven or more days rest between games, so I'm going to roll with the Jaguars here. Plus, Minshew likely getting wide receiver D.J. Chark back is a plus.
The pick: Jaguars 28-25
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chiefs -7
The Chiefs were absolutely incredible against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this week, as Patrick Mahomes completed 31 of 42 passes for 385 yards and four touchdowns while the defense held Lamar Jackson and Co. to just 228 yards of total offense. The Patriots have certainly found new life with Cam Newton, but Andy Reid's team is the better unit right now. Among the eight coaches who have faced Bill Belichick at least ten times (including in the postseason), Reid (6-4-0, 60%) has the best cover percentage. I'll lay the seven points, but may reconsider if this line moves again in favor of Kansas City.
The pick: Chiefs 29-21
Other Week 4 picks
Broncos (+1.5) 20-17 over Jets
Ravens 31-20 over Washington (+13)
Buccaneers (-7) 28-20 over Chargers
Saints (-4) 30-24 over Lions
Cardinals (-3.5) 33-25 over Panthers
Texans 27-26 over Vikings (+4.5)
Rams (-13) 30-13 over Giants
Bills (-3) 35-28 over Raiders
49ers 24-22 over Eagles (+7)
Packers (-7) 38-30 over Falcons