After being embarrassed by Josh McDaniels during their coaching search earlier this year, the Colts are finally going to have a shot at revenge.
Unfortunately for Indianapolis, though, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren't feeling very strongly about Indy's chances of pulling off an upset on McDaniels and the Patriots Thursday. The Colts have opened as a 10.5-point underdog for Week 5, which is one of the largest point spreads the Colts have ever faced in a game where Andrew Luck is expected to start.
With Luck as their starting quarterback, the Colts have only been an underdog of 10 points or more a total of four times and they went 1-3 straight-up in those games (They also went 1-3 against the spread). On the other hand, when Luck sat out during the 2017 season, the Colts were an underdog of 10 or more points a total of five times (0-5 straight-up, 3-2 ATS).
Of course, let's not rule out the possibility that Josh McDaniels is going to want to run up the score on the Colts, which is why the Patriots could be a good bet in this game. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games where they've been favored by 10 or more points (9-1 straight-up).
They also never lose on a short week with Tom Brady.
For more on that and the rest of the early point spreads for Week 5, let's get to the odds.
NFL Week 5 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. Keep in mind, the point spreads you see below represent the opening odds for Week 5. For the most up-to-date line on each game, you can click here)
Colts (1-3) at Patriots (2-2), Thursday
Opening line: Patriots -10.5
If there's one team you don't want to play coming off a short week, it's the Patriots, and that's mainly because Tom Brady has never lost a Thursday game on three days rest. Brady has played a total of six games in his career on short rest and the Patriots have gone 6-0 (Week 1 Thursday games don't count here since neither team had to prep for the game on a short week.) In those six games, the Patriots have gone 4-2 ATS. Andrew Luck could probably use more than three days of prep for this game and that's mainly because he's got an 0-5 career record against the Patriots (1-4 ATS).
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Opening line: Titans -3
If there's one team you don't want to bet on as a road favorite, it's the Tennessee Titans. Since Marcus Mariota's rookie year in 2015, the Titans have been a road favorite nine times, and in those games, they've gone 4-5 straight-up and just 2-7 ATS. Also not helping the Titans: The Bills seem to do a good job of covering at home when they're an underdog of three points or more. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Bills are 4-4 both straight-up and ATS in home games where they're an underdog of three or more points.
Opening line: Bengals -5.5
Since Andy Dalton's rookie year in 2011, the Bengals are 23-4-1 straight-up when they're favored by 5 or more points (15-10-3 ATS), which seems like a decent reason to bet the Bengals. One other reason you might want to think about taking the Bengals is because they're unbeaten in their past 10 October home games, going 8-0-2 straight-up and 6-3-1 ATS. As for the Dolphins, although they're 3-1 ATS on the season, they seem to struggle covering the spread after a loss under Adam Gase. Since his first year in 2016, the Dolphins are 4-10-1 ATS after a loss (5-10 straight-up), which is the second-worst ATS mark in the NFL over that span.
Opening line: Ravens -1.5
The Ravens have absolutely dominated this series under John Harbaugh. Since he was hired in 2008, the Ravens have gone 18-2 straight-up against the Browns, which includes a current five-game winning streak. In those 20 games, the Ravens have gone 14-6 ATS. Under Hue Jackson, the Browns are 0-4 both straight-up and ATS against Baltimore. The Browns are also 7-23 ATS after a loss under Jackson, which is the worst mark in the NFL over the past two years.
Opening line: Packers -1.5
The Lions swept this series last season, but Aaron Rodgers didn't play in either game. If you only look at the past 10 games where Rodgers played, the Packers have gone 8-2 both straight-up and ATS. On the Lions' end, Matt Patricia is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog, with his one win coming earlier this year when the Lions beat the Patriots as a 7-point dog. Including that game, the Lions are 5-10 straight-up and 6-9 ATS in their past 15 games as a home underdog. The Lions are 3-1 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFC (the Packers are 2-2 ATS).
Opening line: Chiefs -3
Since the beginning of last season, the Jaguars have been the safest bet in football when they're an underdog of three points or more. That situation happened three times last season and the Jags pulled off three upset wins, going 3-0 both straight-up and ATS. If they're going to stay unbeaten as an underdog of three points or more, they're going to have to knock off the Chiefs, who happen to be the only team in the NFL that's still perfect ATS. The Chiefs could improve to 4-0 ATS this season with a win over the Broncos on Monday night.
Broncos (2-1) at Jets (1-3)
Opening line: Jets -2.5
Betting on the Broncos has been one of the fastest ways to throw your money away over the past year. Over their past 15 games dating back to last season, the Broncos have gone 4-11 straight-up and 2-12-1 ATS. As a matter of fact, the Broncos are the only team in the NFL that hasn't covered the spread in a single game this year (0-2-1), although that could change on Monday against the Chiefs. These two teams played last season in a game where the Broncos covered as a one-point underdog in a 23-0 win. This game will mark just the eighth time the Jets have been favored to win ANY game since 2016. In the seven previous games, the Jets have gone 3-5 both straight-up and ATS.
Opening line: Steelers -4
The greatest lock in sports over the past two years has been betting against the Falcons when they play an AFC team. Since Week 7 of 2016, the Falcons have gone 1-6 straight-up against AFC teams and 0-7 ATS, which includes their loss to the Bengals on Sunday. If you need a bigger sample size, the Falcons are 5-16 ATS against the AFC since the beginning of the 2013 season. One other thing that's probably worth noting: The Falcons have never won in Pittsburgh, going 0-6-1 all-time.
Opening line: Panthers -7
If there's one time you want to bet on the Panthers, it's when they're favored by a touchdown or more at home. Since Ron Rivera took over as coach in 2011, the Panthers are 12-0 straight-up and 9-2-1 ATS in home games where they're favored by a touchdown or more. Rivera also seems to have this bye week thing figured out. Not only have the Panthers won three straight games coming off a bye, but they've covered in all three of those games. As for the Giants, they're 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 games where they're an underdog of seven or more points (3-7 straight-up).
Opening line: Chargers -6
When the Chargers are favored by six or more, they're basically a lock to win. Since the beginning of the 2012 season, the Chargers have gone 17-0 straight-up when favored by at least six points (10-7 ATS). One of those games came last year when the Chargers covered as a 7-point favorite in a 30-10 win over the Raiders. Including that game, the Raiders have lost five straight on the road to divisional opponents and have gone 1-4 ATS in those games.
Opening line: Eagles -3
After getting destroyed 38-7 in the NFC Championship game last January, the Vikings are finally getting a shot at revenge. However, revenge isn't going to be easy and that's because the Eagles almost never lose at home. Since Week 16 in 2016, the Eagles have gone 11-1 at home (8-4 ATS) and it's probably worth noting that the only loss in that span came in the season finale last year when the Eagles benched their starters. As for the Vikings, they're 14-7 ATS as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer, which is the third-best mark in the NFL since 2014, when Zimmer was hired.
Cardinals (0-4) at 49ers (1-3)
Opening line: 49ers -3
If the Cardinals are going to pick up their first win of the season, don't be surprised if it comes against the 49ers. Arizona has won six in a row in this series (3-3 ATS), including the past three in San Francisco. Despite their 0-4 record, the Cardinals haven't been a horrible bet in 2018, going 2-2 ATS (The 49ers are 1-3). Betting the 49ers when they're a favorite is almost always a risk. In their past 10 games as a favorite, the 49ers have gone 4-6 straight-up and 1-9 ATS.
Opening line: Rams -7.5
This is one of the most interesting point spreads of the week and that's mainly because the Seahawks are almost never a huge underdog at home. Since Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, the Seahawks have been a home underdog of seven or more points a total of only two times, going 1-1 both straight-up and ATS. If you ever want to take an underdog, taking the Seahawks at home always seems to be a smart bet. Since 2011, the Seahawks are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog and 7-5 straight-up. That being said, if any team can cover a spread like this in Seattle, it's the Rams. During Sean McVay's first season as head coach, the Rams handed the Seahawks their worst loss in CenturyLink Field history when they beat Seattle 42-7.
Opening line: Texans -3.5
The battle of Texas is headed for primetime when the Texans host the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Of course, it's possible the Texans would rather not play this game in primetime and that's mainly because they're 4-15-1 ATS in their past 20 night games (6-14 straight-up). On the other hand, the Cowboys have been pretty unbeatable in primetime. Since Dak Prescott's rookie year in 2016, the Cowboys have gone 10-2 straight-up at night and 7-4-1 ATS.
Opening line: Saints -7
Betting against the Saints in primetime is quickly becoming a fast way to get rich. Not only has New Orleans lost five straight night games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in those games. The Saints have also had some serious trouble covering large point spreads. The past 15 times they've been favored by seven or more points, they've gone just 5-10 ATS (9-6 straight-up). Like the Saints, the Redskins have also struggled in primetime, especially under Jay Gruden. Since Gruden was hired in 2014, the Redskins have gone 1-6 both straight-up and ATS while playing on Monday night. The Redskins have actually been one of the worst Monday night teams in recent history, going 2-13 straight-up and 3-12 ATS In their past 15 Monday games.