The Redskins season is already such a disaster after just four weeks that they're going to be making history on Sunday, and not the type of history that you want to be making.
In the early odds for Week 5, the Redskins have opened as a 16-point underdog to the Patriots, which marks the biggest point spread they've ever faced at home. According to Pro Football Reference, the only time a line came even close to that number was in 1995, when the eventual Super Bowl champion Cowboys were favored by 13 points for a Week 4 game in Washington. At the time, the Redskins were 1-3 and the Cowboys were 4-0.
Surprisingly, the Redskins actually won that game 27-23. Washington also upset the Cowboys a second time that season when they beat Dallas 24-17 on the road in a game where the Cowboys were favored by 17.
A wild Week 4 Sunday is in the books and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough joined Will Brinson to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe right here to get daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Whether the game is home or away, the Redskins haven't fared too well when they're an underdog of 10 or more points. Since 1980, that's happened a total of 25 times and they've gone 3-22 in those games, although they have gone a respectable 14-9-2 against the spread (ATS).
The Redskins are the only team this week that opened as a double-digit underdog. For the rest of the early odds and a look at this week's trends -- including the one team that's covered in 13 straight October games -- let's get to rest of the opening point spreads for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Rams (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1), Thursday
Opening line: Pick'em
Although the Seahawks have struggled to beat the Rams lately, they do seem to find a way to cover whenever they play L.A.. In the past five games between these two teams, the Seahawks have gone just 2-3 straight-up, but 4-1 ATS. One reason you might want to think about taking the Seahawks in this game is because Russell Wilson is nearly unbeatable at home in primetime. Since his rookie year in 2012, the Seahawks have gone 14-2 straight-up in home primetime games while going 12-3-1 ATS. As for the Rams, they've been steamrolling their way through the division since the hiring of Sean McVay in 2017. Over the past two years, the Rams are 10-2 straight-up against NFC West teams and 7-5 ATS.
Patriots (4-0) at Redskins (0-4)
Opening line: Patriots, -16
The Patriots are good against everyone, but they're especially good against NFC teams, which is bad news for the Redskins. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Patriots have gone 15-5 straight-up against the NFC and 9-6 ATS. Also, you probably shouldn't look for the Redskins to pull of an upset here and that's because the Patriots are 25-0 straight-up under Bill Belichick when favored by 14 or more points (14-11 ATS). If you look at more recent numbers, the Pats have gone 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 ATS when favored by 14 or more points over the past five years. Of course, one of those two times they didn't cover came this season against the Jets.
Cardinals (0-3-1) at Bengals (0-3)
Opening line: Bengals, -4.5
If there's one time you don't want to bet on the Cardinals, it's when they're playing in the Eastern Time Zone. In their past 10 games played in eastern time, the Cards have gone 1-9 both straight-up and ATS, and it's probably worth mentioning that the one win came in overtime. On the other hand, the nine losses have come by an average of 13.7 points per game. As for the Bengals, October always seems to be their best month at home. Over the past six years, the Bengals have gone 10-1-1 straight-up in October home games (7-4-1 ATS). Instead of Daytime Dalton, it might be time to change his nickname to October Andy.
Bills (3-1) at Titans (2-2)
Opening line: NO LINE
There's no point spread on this game yet, because it's not clear if Josh Allen is going to play. The Bills quarterback left Sunday's game against the Patriots after suffering a concussion. If Allen can't go, then Buffalo will roll with Matt Barkley as its starting QB. Winning in Nashville could be tough for Barkley and that's because the Titans have quietly had one of the best home-field advantages in football over the past few years. In their past 20 games played at home, the Titans have gone 15-5 straight-up (13-7 ATS).
Bears (3-1) at Raiders (2-2) (in London)
Opening line: Bears, -5.5
The Raiders might want to stop offering to play games in London, because the trip to England always turns out to be a disaster for them. The Raiders have played two games in London and not only have they gone 0-2, but they were outscored by 24 points in each game. The Raiders have also struggled against the NFC over the past two years. Since 2017, they're 2-7 straight-up and 1-7-1 ATS against the other conference. As for the Bears, they're 7-2 straight-up and 6-3 ATS against the AFC in that same timeframe.
Buccaneers (2-2) at Saints (3-1)
Opening line: Saints, -5.5
If you've been betting on the Saints in October games, then you're probably rich, and that's because they have one of the wildest betting streaks going: New Orleans has covered the spread in 13 straight October games dating back to Week 5 of 2015 (They're 12-1 straight-up in those same games). As for the Buccaneers, they haven't done a good job of beating divisional rivals over the past few years, but they have done a decent job of covering. Since 2017, the Bucs have gone 4-9 straight-up against NFC South teams, but they're 7-6 ATS. In their past 10 games dating back to last season, the Bucs are 7-3 ATS.
Vikings (2-2) at Giants (2-2)
Opening line: Vikings, -4.5
Betting against the Giants at home used to be an easy way to make money, but that might not be the case now that Daniel Jones is their quarterback. Before Jones showed up, the Giants were on a stretch where they went 4-13 straight-up in their past 17 home games (4-12-1 ATS). However, the Giants are now 2-0 overall and 1-0 both straight-up and ATS since Jones became the starter. As for the Vikings, they've gone 11-4-1 straight-up and 10-6 ATS as a road favorite under Mike Zimmer.
Jets (0-3) at Eagles (2-2)
Opening line: NO LINE
The reason oddsmakers haven't released a line for this game yet is because no one seems sure whether or not Sam Darnold is going to play. Darnold has missed the Jets' past two games while battling mono and although the team was hopeful that he would return this week, there's no guarantee that will happen. Of course, it might not matter who starts, and that's because the Jets have been horrible against NFC teams over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Jets have gone 2-10 straight-up and 4-8 ATS against the NFC. As for the Eagles, they're 0-2 ATS at home this season and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 home games.
Ravens (2-2) at Steelers (0-3)
Opening line: Ravens, -3.5
The Steelers have been nearly unbeatable against divisional teams at home over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Steelers are 15-3 straight-up when playing an AFC North team at Heinz Field, pending Monday's outcome against the Bengals. The Steelers are soon going to find out if that was a Ben Roethlisberger advantage or a true home-field advantage. As for the Ravens, they're just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games against divisional opponents, including Sunday's loss to the Browns (They're 3-5 straight-up in those games).
Jaguars (2-2) at Panthers (2-2)
Opening line: Panthers, -3
It's Minshew Magic against Amazing Allen and something is going to have go give, because both of these guys are unbeaten ATS. Since taking over as the Jaguars' starter, Minshew has gone 3-0 ATS (2-1 straight-up) while Kyle Allen has gone 2-0 both straight-up and ATS since replacing Cam Newton. Gardner is going to need to bring some extra Minshew magic for this game, because the Jags are usually horrible against NFC teams. Since 2014, the Jags have gone 4-16 both straight-up and ATS against the NFC.
Falcons (1-3) at Texans (2-2)
Opening line: Texans, -5
For the third straight week, the Falcons are playing an AFC team, which is not good news for a team that can't ever seem to beat AFC teams. In their past 12 games against the AFC, the Falcons have gone 1-11 straight up and 0-12 ATS, and that is not a typo. The Falcons haven't covered in any of their past 12 games against the AFC, which includes Sunday's loss to the Titans. Of course, if there's one team the Falcons could end that ugly ATS streak against, it's the Texans, who are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against the NFC (2-5 straight-up), including Sunday's loss to the Panthers.
Broncos (0-4) at Chargers (2-2)
Opening line: Chargers, -6.5
Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers have had some trouble covering the spread at home. During that span, they've played 18 games and gone just 6-11-1 ATS (11-7 straight-up). Of course, that doesn't mean you should bet on the Broncos, and that's because they've gone 2-8 both straight-up and ATS in their past 10 games against AFC West teams. The Broncos are also just 4-16 straight-up and 5-15 ATS in their past 20 road games. The fact that the Chargers are favored by 6.5 is probably a good thing for them and that's because that seems to be their sweet spot. In the past 25 games where the Chargers were favored by six or more, they've gone 24-1 straight-up (13-11-1 ATS).
Packers (3-1) at Cowboys (3-1)
Opening line: Cowboys, -4.5
Over the past 10 years, Aaron Rodgers has absolutely dominated the Cowboys, going 5-1 both straight-up and ATS in regular season games. In those six wins, the Packers have averaged 32.4 points per game. The one advantage the Cowboys will have in this game is the fact that they're playing at home. In their past 10 games at Jerry World, the Cowboys have gone 9-1 straight-up and 6-3 ATS. The Packers have also been pretty bad as road underdogs, going 1-9 straight-up in their past 10 games (3-6-1 ATS).
Colts (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0)
Opening line: Chiefs, -9.5
The Chiefs have been nearly unbeatable at home with Patrick Mahomes, going 8-1 straight-up since he took over the starting job in 2018. However, they have had some trouble covering the spread, going 5-4 ATS. Also, the Chiefs have had some trouble covering larger spreads under Andy Reid. Since Reid took over as coach in 2013, the Chiefs have gone just 3-6 ATS when favored by nine or more points (7-2 straight-up). As for the Colts, they've had some trouble winning on the road against non-divisional opponents. If you don't count games against AFC South teams, they've gone just 2-9 on the road since the beginning of the 2017 season (5-5-1 ATS).
Browns (2-2) at 49ers (3-0), Monday
Opening line: 49ers, -4
If there's one time to bet on the 49ers, it's when they're playing at home on Monday night. Over the past 30 years, the 49ers have played 25 Monday home games and they've gone 20-5 straight-up and 17-7-1 ATS. As for the Browns, although they're just 1-6 straight-up (3-4 ATS) in west coast games over the past 10 years, they have covered in four straight road games, which makes them one of the hottest teams in the NFL to bet on the road. The Browns are 8-3 ATS on the road in their past 11 road games (4-7 straight-up).
