After years of laughing at the Cleveland Browns, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are finally showing the team some respect.
In the early odds for Week 6, the Browns have opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the 4-1 Seahawks, which is notable for two reasons: For one, they're favored to beat a team with a winning record, which has been a rarity for the Browns over the past few years. Also, they're favored to beat an NFC team, which almost never happens.
If the current point spread holds, the game against the Seahawks will mark just the second time since 2015 that the Browns have been favored to beat a team with a winning record, according to Pro Football Reference. The only other time came last season, when they closed as a one-point favorite in a Week 6 home game against the 3-2 Chargers. Not only did the Browns fail to cover against Los Angeles, but they ended up losing the game 38-14.
The last time the Browns were favored by more than 2.5 points against a team with a winning record came all the way back in 2005, when they were favored by three in a game against the Lions.
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The game against the Seahawks will also mark the first time in four years that the Browns have been favored to beat an NFC team. The last time came in Week 14 of 2015, when Cleveland closed as a 1.5-point favorite to beat the 49ers.
The Browns have actually been horrible against NFC teams over the past few years, going 3-14 straight-up and 5-12 against the spread (ATS) since 2015. OK, that's enough Browns talk. For the rest of the early odds and a look at this week's trends -- including the one team that's covered in 14 straight October games -- let's get to rest of the opening point spreads for Week 6.
Also, if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 6, make sure to click here.
NFL Week 6 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Patriots, -16.5
If there's one team that has been the Patriots' arch-nemesis during the Belichick and Brady era, it's the New York Giants. Since Belichick took over as coach in 2000, these two teams have faced each other six times with the series record tied 3-3, which includes the Giants two Super Bowl wins. On the gambling side, the Patriots are just 1-5 ATS in those six games. Although the Patriots have struggled against the Giants, they definitely haven't struggled in primetime, going 20-5 straight-up in their past 25 night games and 15-8-2 ATS. The Patriots are also 8-1 ATS in the past nine games where they've been favored by two or more touchdowns, including Sunday's 33-7 win over the Redskins, a game where they were also favored by 16.5 points.
Panthers (3-2) vs. Buccaneers (2-3) in London
Opening line: Panthers, -1.5
Although England was generous to the Raiders on Sunday, London hasn't usually been a kind place for underdogs. Over the past 10 years of the international series, the underdog has gone 5-17-1 straight-up and 7-16 ATS, which doesn't bode well for the Buccaneers. Of course, one thing that does bode well for the Bucs is that they've won two straight over Carolina and they've covered in three of the past four games that these two teams have played in. That being said, Kyle Allen has turned into the one NFL quarterback you don't want to bet against. The Panthers quarterback has started four games in his career, and in those four games, he's gone 4-0 both straight-up and ATS.
Seahawks (4-1) at Browns (2-2)
Opening line: Browns, -2.5
If there's one time you want to avoid betting on the Browns, it's when they play an NFC team. Since 2015, the Browns are just 3-14 straight-up and 5-12 ATS against NFC teams (this total doesn't including their Monday night game against the 49ers). On the other hand, in that same span, the Seahawks are 13-4 straight-up against AFC teams, which includes wins over both the Steelers and Bengals this year. The Seahawks have actually been one of the safest road underdogs to bet on over the past few years. Not only have they covered four straight as a road dog, but they're 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 games as a road underdog.
Bengals (0-5) at Ravens (3-2)
Opening line: Ravens, -10
The Bengals have struggled in divisional games, losing six straight (3-3 ATS), but if there's one team they seem to beat on a regular basis, it's the Ravens. In their past 10 meetings against Baltimore, the Bengals have gone 7-3 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Ravens, they're just 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games where they've been favored by 10 or more points (14-1 straight-up). They're also 0-6 ATS in their past six home games against divisional opponents (2-4 straight-up).
Opening line: Chiefs, -8
The Texans are an 8-point underdog in this game, which is bad news for them, because they almost always struggle when their opponent is favored by a touchdown or more. In the past 10 games where the Texans have been an underdog of seven or more points, Houston has gone 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 ATS. As for the Chiefs, they're 8-1 straight-up in their past nine games where they've been favored by seven or more points, but just 4-5 ATS.
Opening line: Pick'em
Minshew Magic might work on AFC teams, but it didn't help Jacksonville against the Panthers in Week 5, which is bad news for the Jags, because they need all the help they can get against NFC teams. Since 2013, the Jags have gone 4-21 both straight-up and ATS against the NFC, which includes Sunday's loss to Carolina. As for the Saints, they seem to have multiple trends working in their favor. Not only have they won eight straight games against AFC teams, but they've covered the spread in 14 straight October games (13-1 straight-up), including Sunday's win over Tampa.
Opening line: Vikings, -3
If Kirk Cousins has proven one thing during his time in the NFL, it's that he has some serious trouble beating teams that have a winning record. Over the course of his career, Cousins is 5-27 straight-up in that situation. One thing that might help Cousins is playing at home, and that's because the Vikings are nearly unbeatable in Minnesota. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Vikings are 14-4 straight-up at home and 13-5 ATS. As for the Eagles, they've won and covered in four straight road games. However, the 1 p.m. kickoff time hasn't been kind to Philly. In their past 11 games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET, the Eagles have gone 2-9 ATS (6-5 straight-up).
Redskins (0-5) at Dolphins (0-4)
Opening line: Redskins, -3.5
If you're wondering what Jay Gruden means in terms of the point spread, the answer is nothing. This line opened on Sunday with the Redskins as a 3.5-point favorite and it hasn't really moved. In this battle of two winless teams, the oddsmakers have decided that the winless Dolphins are way worse than the winless Redskins, which actually makes sense, because the Dolphins have burnt the bookies this year. Through five weeks, the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that still hasn't covered a spread (0-4). That means if you've been betting against the Dolphins, you've been winning money. That being said, betting against the Dolphins might not be the smart move this week and that's because the Redskins have never won in Miami (0-5 all-time). In a twist, this game marks the first time all year that the Redskins have been favored in a game, and Gruden won't even be around to enjoy it.
49ers (3-0) at Rams (3-2)
Opening line: Rams, -4
If there's one thing Kyle Shanahan hasn't been able to do during his 49ers tenure, it's beat divisional opponents. Since Shanahan was hired in 2017, the 49ers have gone 2-10 straight-up against NFC West teams (5-7 ATS), although they have yet to face a divisional opponent this year. On the other hand, Sean McVay has been the complete opposite. In that same time period, McVay and the Rams have gone 10-3 straight-up against NFC West teams (8-5 ATS). The Rams are also 6-1 ATS in their past seven regular season games dating back to last season.
Opening line: Falcons, -1
The Falcons are going on the road in this game, which is bad news for the Falcons, but could be good news for bettors. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Falcons haven't been able to cover any sort of spread on the road, going 4-15 ATS (8-11 straight-up). The good news for the Falcons is that they're going up against one of the NFL's worst home teams. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Cards are 1-9-1 straight-up at home and just 4-7 ATS.
Opening line: NO LINE
This game doesn't have a point spread yet and that's because oddsmakers aren't sure who will be starting at quarterback for the Jets. If Sam Darnold's spleen is finally healed, he could return this week, but if he doesn't get cleared, then Luke Falk would be in line to make another start. No matter who starts, the Jets probably won't be the smart bet. In their past 20 games, the Jets are 4-16 straight-up and 6-13-1 ATS. The Jets are also just 2-10 straight-up (4-8 ATS) in their past 12 games against the NFC. As for the Cowboys, they're 8-2-1 ATS all-time against the Jets.
Opening line: Broncos, -2.5
Playing at home used to be an advantage of the Broncos, but that hasn't been the case over the past two years. In their past 15 home games, the Broncos are just 4-11 straight-up and 4-10-1 ATS. As for the Titans, October hasn't been a kind month for them. Including Sunday's loss to the Bills, the Titans have lost four straight in October and have gone 1-3 ATS in those games.
Steelers (1-4) at Chargers (2-3)
Opening line: NO LINE
The point spread for this game hasn't been released because it's not clear who the starting quarterback will be for the Steelers. Mason Rudolph left Sunday's game after suffering a concussion, and if he can't go, the Steelers will start third-stringer Devlin Hodges. Of course, it might not matter who the quarterback is, and that's because the Steelers have been horrible on the west coast under Mike Tomlin. Since Tomlin took over as coach in 2007, the Steelers have gone 1-6 straight-up (2-5 ATS). As for the Chargers, their homefield in Los Angeles hasn't exactly been an advantage. Since moving to L.A. in 2017, the Chargers have had some trouble covering the spread at home. During that span, they've played 19 games and gone just 6-12-1 ATS (11-8 straight-up).
Lions (2-1-1) at Packers (4-1), Monday
Opening line: Packers, -6
Betting on the Packers in a home primetime game might seem like a smart move to make, but it hasn't been lately. In their past five night games played at home, the Packers have gone 0-5 ATS (2-3 straight-up), and that total includes a loss to the Lions in 2017. The upside for the Packers is that this game is being played at Lambeau in October, and over the past 10 years, Aaron Rodgers is 15-2 straight-up at home in October (11-6 ATS). As for the Lions, they'll be coming off a bye, which could be a good thing for them. Since 2010, the Lions are 7-2 both straight-up and ATS when coming off a bye. On the other hand, the Lions are just 3-18 straight-up since 2010 in road games where they're an underdog of 10 or more points (8-13 ATS).