NFL Week 6 picks, odds, TV: Rams knock off undefeated 49ers, Redskins and Dolphins play depressing thriller
Wondering which NFL teams are going to win in Week 6? You've come to the right place to find out
It took 20 years, but I think Daniel Snyder has finally done it: He's officially running the most dysfunctional organization in Washington.
The title of most dysfunctional organization in Washington has been held by the government for decades, but then I think the Real Housewives of D.C. stole it in 2010, and now it belongs to Snyder and I don't think anyone is ever going to take it back. And the sad part is that I might pick his team to win this week.
Not only did Snyder fire Jay Gruden, but he did exactly what a bad boss would do: He let Gruden leave work on Sunday night and then ordered him to come back at 5 a.m. on Monday so he could fire him. That's the type of power move you make if you don't like other human beings.
If I were going to fire Jay Gruden, I would have saved us both some time and done it immediately after the 2018 season. If I didn't have the nerve to do it then, I almost certainly would have done it at some point before the 2019 NFL Draft, you know, instead of drafting a quarterback in Dwayne Haskins that Gruden didn't want and forcing them to co-exist in an offense that Haskins isn't ready to run, but no, Snyder just kind of does whatever he wants, whenever he wants, which probably explains why the Redskins have now been through eight coaches in the 20 years of his ownership.
Of course, you didn't come here to read about Dan Snyder, you came here for picks, so let's get to the Week 6 picks.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here, but you don't need to click over this week, because it will only stall you from listening to Tuesday's edition of the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com.
The host of the podcast, Will Brinson, was traveling this week, so someone thought it would be a good idea to make me the host for a day, and I have to say, I couldn't have come up with a better idea myself. On Tuesday's episode, I was joined by Jared Dubin and Sean Wagner-McGough and we spent some serious time talking about how bad the Browns are and which coach could be the next to get Jay Gruden'd.
Remember, the podcast comes out five days per week with a total of eight episodes, so make sure to check it out and/or subscribe by clicking here.
Alright, that's enough self promotion, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 6 picks
Washington (0-5) at Miami (0-4)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Redskins -3.5
I've been reading a lot of reviews about "The Joker" over the past week and everything I've read has basically said that the movie is the most depressing thing that you will watch this year. Now, sure, that could end up being true, but I'm going to reserve judgment on that until after these two teams play on Sunday, because let's be real, nothing is more depressing than the thought of spending three hours of your day watching the 0-5 Redskins play the 0-4 Dolphins.
So how depressing have things gotten for each team? The Redskins just fired their coach, they don't have a quarterback and they've averaged only five points per game over the past two weeks, yet somehow, the DOLPHINS are the underdog in this game. If I'm a Dolphins fan, that's depressing.
If you're a Redskins fan, I don't need to make a list of depressing things, because depressing is basically all you've known since Dan Snyder bought the team in 1999.
The most depressing part of this game for both fans bases is probably the fact that they can't even cheer for their team to win, because the winner might actually lose. Although winning is usually a good thing, it won't be in this game, because the winner in Miami will likely have almost no shot at earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft, so losing is arguably better on Sunday.
Since the Redskins never do anything right, I'm going to say they win the game they're supposed to lose. Also, the Dolphins defense has been so bad this season that I think even the Redskins will be able to move the ball. The Dolphins are giving up 472 yards and 40.8 points per game, which is incredibly horrible when you consider that the next closest defenses are only giving up 411 yards and 27.2 points per game.
In some weird way, it's almost fitting that the top pick in the draft might be decided on the same field where the NFL will crown its champion in February. The Toilet Bowl and the Super Bowl on the same field in the same season? The NFL couldn't have planned it out any better.
The pick: Redskins 20-16 over Dolphins
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Carolina (3-2) vs. Tampa Bay (2-3) in London
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Point spread: Panthers -2.5
I'm going to be honest with you guys here, this game is being played in London and if the past is any indication, there's a 100 percent chance I'm going to get this pick wrong. Since 2015, I've gone 4-10 when it comes to picking games that were played in London, and yes, that total includes the fact that I completely whiffed on the Bears-Raiders game last week, which I don't even feel bad about, because WEIRD AND UNPREDICTABLE THINGS ALWAYS HAPPEN IN LONDON.
To prove my point, I decided to take a field trip to London over the summer and as soon as I got there, a weird and unpredictable thing happened to me: I ran into Alex Rodriguez at Buckingham Palace.
I told you London was weird and unpredictable. The important part of this story is that A-Rod gave me some important advice about picking NFL games that went like this, "Remember kid, heroes get remembered, but legends never die."
Actually, that quote is from "The Sandlot," and A-Rod didn't say anything to me at all. However, he did give me an awkward look when I asked if he'd think about an inviting me to his wedding with J-Lo. I think he wanted everyone to stop bothering him so he could watch the changing of the guard at Buckingham Palace.
Speaking of Buckingham Palace, the guards there could probably stop the pass better than the Buccaneers have this year. Through six weeks, the Bucs defense is ranked dead last overall in the NFL against the pass. They're giving up 323.6 yards per game, which is a ridiculously high number when you consider that no other team in the NFL is even giving up 300 yards per game. Not even the Dolphins.
If new Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen has proven one thing, it's that he's extremely good at getting the ball in the hands of Christian McCaffrey and I have a feeling he'll be doing a lot of that on Sunday. If the Bucs try to stop McCaffrey on the ground, then Carolina will get to him through the air.
Although the Panthers lost to the Bucs in Week 2 (20-14), Cam Newton was basically playing that game on one leg. With a healthy quarterback, I think the Panthers get revenge in London.
The pick: Panthers 23-20 over Buccaneers
Philadelphia (3-2) at Minnesota (3-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Vikings -3
I don't usually bring up politics in this picks column, but I feel obligated to this week, because I'm pretty sure Kirk Cousins just became the first player in NFL history to receive a congratulatory phone call from the president of the United State for winning a regular season game.
Some players get a call for winning the Super Bowl, Cousins got one for beating a below-average Giants team, which is arguably the most on-brand thing that has ever to happened to him. Getting a presidential phone call after beating a 2-3 Giants team is the equivalent of giving a gold medal to someone who finishes in 10th place at the Olympics, which is kind of ironic, because that's roughly where the Vikings are going to finish in the NFC if Cousins doesn't start playing better against good teams.
As you may or may not have heard, Cousins is 5-27 all-time against teams that have a winning record, and as you may or may not have noticed, the Eagles have a winning record. Basically, Cousins isn't a guy who thrives under pressure, which is something that became pretty clear when he almost missed the box on a 10-foot throw during his child's gender reveal.
The Vikings are going to need him to be more accurate than that on Sunday if they're going to beat the Eagles, and here's the thing, I actually think he's going to come through. If the Eagles have proven one thing this season, it's that they can't stop the pass. Although they only gave up 61 yards to the Jets on Sunday -- against New York's third-string quarterback -- they're still giving up more passing yards per game than almost any other team in the NFL (They're sixth-worst in the NFL, surrendering 271.2 yards per game).
The Eagles are going to spend so much time focusing on Dalvin Cook that it's going to give Cousins a chance to prove to the Vikings that they didn't just throw $84 million in the trash when they signed him to that fully guaranteed deal last year.
If Cousins got a phone call for beating an average team like the Giants, the president is probably going to need to let him borrow Air Force One if he can beat a team like the Eagles. Please don't make me immediately regret this pick, Kirk.
The pick: Vikings 27-23 over Eagles
San Francisco (4-0) at L.A. Rams (3-2)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Rams -4.5
There are 32 teams in the NFL, and through five weeks, only three of those teams -- the 49ers, Falcons and Lions -- have yet to play a divisional game. To put that in perspective, there are multiple teams (Patriots, Redskins) that have already played three divisional games.
The only reason I'm mentioning this is because no matter how good the 49ers look this season, I can't start taking them seriously UNTIL THEY ACTUALLY BEAT A TEAM FROM THE NFC WEST, which is something they haven't really been able to figure out how to do under Kyle Shanahan. Since Shanahan was hired in 2017, the 49ers have gone 2-10 against divisional opponents (They went 1-5 in both 2017 and 2018). Even uglier is the fact that one of those wins came in a game where the other team was resting all of its starters (The 49ers beat Sean Mannion and the Rams 34-13 in the 2017 regular season finale).
I think what I'm trying to say here is that although I like Shanahan as a coach, he's arguably the third best coach in the division, and it's starting to show. These two teams met twice last year, and the Rams averaged 43.5 points per game. Basically, Sean McVay knows how to attack the 49ers defense and that's likely going to lead to a giant "maybe we're not quite ready to compete in this division" reality check for the 49ers on Sunday. On the other hand, it's also possible that I get a "the 49ers are actually good and I better start taking them seriously" reality check, but I'm going to say that doesn't happen.
The pick: Rams 34-27 over 49ers
Lock of the Week
N.Y. Giants (2-3) at New England (5-0)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime)
Point spread: Patriots -17
I have no idea what Bill Belichick does during the offseason, but I'm guessing he spends most of it thinking about different ways to get revenge on the New York Giants. The Giants have cost him two Super Bowls, and if there's one team that I'm pretty sure Belichick wants to beat by 85 points every time he plays them, it's the Giants. I mean, let's be real, if there's one coach in the NFL who would still be bitter about two Super Bowl losses even though he has six Super Bowl rings to make up for those, it's definitely Belichick.
Belichick built the perfect the defense this offseason, and I'm somewhat convinced he only did it so that he could destroy the Giants in this game. Through five weeks this season, the Patriots defense is giving up the fewest points per game (6.8), the fewest yards per game (238.4), and they lead the league in both sacks (11) and interceptions (24). Now let's throw in the fact that Daniel Jones has to face this team on just four days rest, and you have a disaster waiting to happen for New York.
Asking a rookie quarterback to go up against a Belichick defense would be like asking me to diffuse a bomb using only a toothbrush, a pop tart wrapper and a plastic cup. Everyone knows how it's going to end.
Rookie quarterbacks are 0-12 all-time playing at New England and I don't see that streak ending this year. Although I'm sure that Belichick would probably prefer to crush a Giants team being led by Eli Manning, I'm guessing he'll equally enjoy ripping the soul out of another rookie quarterback.
The pick: Patriots 34-13 over Giants
Lock of the week record: 4-1 straight up, 2-3 against the spread
NFL Week 6 picks: All the rest
Seahawks 26-23 over Browns
Chiefs 34-24 over Texans
Saints 30-23 over Jaguars
Ravens 31-24 over Bengals
Falcons 30-27 over Cardinals
Broncos 20-17 over Titans
Cowboys 31-13 over Jets
Chargers 27-20 over Steelers
Packers 27-24 over Lions
Best pick: Last week, Iwould score 24 points and lose to the Packers, and then the Cowboys went out and scored 24 points and lost to the Packers. Although I nailed my game prediction, I have to admit, one thing I didn't see coming was the angry version of Jason Garrett. Going into this week, I was 50 percent sure that Garrett was a robot, and that was based on observing him on the sideline over the past nine years -- the guy never shows emotion, except for clapping, which is something you could easily program a robot to do -- but then he actually showed some emotion in this game when he slammed down a challenge flag in front one of the officials.
Sure, he got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct on the play and his team eventually went on to lose, but all Cowboys fans should be comforted by the fact that they now know their coach isn't a robot. On the other hand, if he was a robot, someone could actually program him to coach better, so maybe it's not good news that he's not a robot.
Worst pick: Last week, I picked the Buccaneers to beat the Saints and I'm still not sure what I'm more mad about, the fact that I picked the Bucs or the fact that I sentenced myself to nine straight days of "Corky Romano." The moral of the story here is to never promise to watch a Chris Kattan movie as a punishment for picking a game wrong, because you're probably going to get that pick wrong, and then you're going to have to watch the movie, because if you don't, people will remind you to.
Not only do I have HBO, but for some reason, I can also watch the movie for free on-demand. Guess I know what I'll be doing for the next few days. Also, there's now a 50 percent chance that next week's picks will include a full review of "Corky Romano."
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we're five weeks into the season and have a decent sample size. Heading into Week 6, the AFC East has been almost as easy on me as it has on the Patriots. In just that division, I'm 17-1 straight-up picking games.
Here's a quick look at the teams I've done well picking:
Teams I'm 5-0 picking this year (Straight-up): Patriots, Falcons, Dolphins (4-0), Jets (4-0).
Teams I'm 4-1 picking this year (Straight-up): Bills, Redskins, Packers, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs.
On the other hand, you should probably just go ahead and ignore every pick I make in any Buccaneers games going forward. As I mentioned earlier, I'm 0-5 picking Tampa games this season, and I'm starting to think that Bucs super fan Nick Carter has put some sort of curse on me. Nick, I will buy EVERY Backstreet Boys album left on this planet if you uncurse me.
Also, just in case you're wondering how big of a fan he is, the dude has a tattoo of a giant pirate ship on his body.
That's almost as impressive as the giant tattoo I have on my body of all the Backstreet Boys.
Here's a quick look at the teams I have been horrible at picking:
Teams I'm 0-5 picking this year (Straight-up): Buccaneers
Teams I'm 1-4 picking this year (Straight-up): Saints, 49ers (1-3)
Straight up in Week 5: 8-7
SU overall: 47-30-1 (1-8 picking the Saints and Buccaneers, 46-22-1 picking everyone else)
Against the spread in Week 5: 3-12
ATS overall: 35-42-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he'll probably be spending his weekend seeing The Joker so he can decide for himself if it's more depressing than watching Redskins-Dolphins.
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