If the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have proven one thing this year, it's that they have no faith in the Miami Dolphins, but that's for good reason: Through six weeks, the Dolphins have played five games and they've only covered the spread once.
For Miami's Week 7 game against the Bills, Buffalo has opened as a 16.5-point favorite over the Dolphins, which is notable for one big reason: It's the most points the Bills have been favored by in nearly 30 years.
According to the Pro Football Reference database, the last time the Bills were favored to win a game by at least two touchdowns came in their regular season opener back in 1993, when they covered as a 14-point favorite in a 38-14 win over the Patriots. The last time the Bills were favored by more than the 16.5 points that they're giving up this week came in December 1992, when they were favored to win a game by 17 points.
During the Bills' four-year Super Bowl run from 1990 to 1993, they were favored by two touchdowns or more a total of 10 times, and in those 10 games, they went 8-2 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread (ATS). Although the Bills had trouble covering the spread back then, they've recently become one of the safest bets in football. For the 2019 season, the Bills are 4-1 ATS, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Bills are also 6-1 ATS in their past seven games dating back to last season.
Anyway, the Bills aren't the only team favored by double digits this week. For the rest of the early odds and a look at this week's trends -- including the Cowboys impressive record against NFC East opponents -- let's get to rest of the opening point spreads for Week 7.
Also, if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 7, make sure to click here.
NFL Week 7 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Chiefs, -4.5 points
Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 22-3 straight-up against divisional opponents and 17-8 ATS. That total includes seven straight wins over the Broncos in a stretch where the Chiefs have gone 6-1 ATS. Another factor that's not helping Denver is that the Broncos have been horrible in primetime. In their past 15 night games, the Broncos have gone 4-11 straight-up and 4-10-1 ATS.
Opening line: Rams, -3.5 points
If there's one West Coast team that seems to prefer playing in the Eastern Time Zone, it's the Rams. Since Sean McVay took over as coach, the Rams have gone 5-0 both straight-up and ATS in games played in that time zone. As for the Falcons, when it comes to covering the spread, no team has been worse than Atlanta this year. The Falcons are just 1-5 ATS, which is tied with the Redskins and Ravens for the worst mark in the NFL. The Falcons are also just 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games dating back to last season.
Dolphins (0-5) at Bills (4-1)
Opening line: Bills, -16.5 points
Anyone betting on the Dolphins this season has basically been throwing away their money. Although Miami did cover on Sunday against the Redskins, the Dolphins are now just 1-4 ATS on the year and 1-7 ATS overall in their past eight games dating back to last season. Although this is a big point spread, the Dolphins have had trouble covering everything. In the past five games where the Dolphins have been a double-digit underdog, they've gone 0-5 both straight-up and ATS. That number includes an 0-3 mark this year when they couldn't cover as a huge underdog to the Patriots (-18 points), Cowboys (-22 points) or Chargers (-15 points). Over the past five years, NFL teams are 21-11 ATS when favored by two or more touchdowns.
Opening line: Jaguars, -3.5 points
If there's one home team you might want to start betting against, it's the Bengals. In their past eight homes games dating back to last season, the Bengals have gone 1-7 ATS and just 2-6 straight-up. As for the Jaguars, betting on Jacksonville against an AFC North team has somehow become one of the safest bets in football. In their past 10 games against teams from the AFC North, the Jags have gone 8-0-2 ATS (6-4 straight-up).
Opening line: Vikings, -1-point
One reason to like the Vikings in this game is because not only have they won three straight games against Detroit, but they covered in all three of those games. The Vikings have also had some success under Mike Zimmer when they're a road favorite. In their past 12 games as a road favorite, the Vikings have gone 9-2-1 straight-up and 8-4 ATS. As for the Lions, they're 7-2 ATS in their past nine games, which includes a cover in Monday night's loss to the Broncos.
Raiders (3-2) at Packers (5-1)
Opening line: Packers, -6.5 points
This game combines two things the Raiders haven't really been good at over the past few years: Playing on the road and playing against an NFC team. In their past 15 road games, the Raiders are 3-12 straight-up and just 3-11-1 ATS. The Raiders have also struggled against NFC teams, going 5-12-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season (6-12 straight-up). As for the Packers, they've won seven straight against AFC teams while going 6-1 ATS in those games. Another upside for the Packers is that this game is being played at Lambeau in October, and over the past 10 years, Aaron Rodgers is 16-2 straight-up at home in October (11-7 ATS), a total that includes the Packers' 23-22 win over the Lions on Monday night.
Opening line: Pick'em
The Texans have turned into one of the NFL's most unstoppable road teams. In their past nine road games dating back to last season, the Texans have gone 7-2 straight-up and 6-2-1 ATS, with both totals including Houston's upset win over the Chiefs on Sunday. The Texans have also gone 6-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past six road games against AFC teams. As for the Colts, they've won three of their past four against the Texans and they're 8-3-1 ATS against Houston since 2013. The Colts have also won seven of their past eight games overall at home.
Opening line: Giants, -3 points
If there's one time you don't want to bet on the Cardinals, it's when they're playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Cards have gone 2-9 both straight-up and ATS in eastern time, with both wins coming by just three points. However, it should probably be noted that they're 2-0 ATS in the Eastern Time Zone under Kliff Kingsbury (1-1 straight-up). As for the Giants, they're just 2-8-1 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2018 season.
49ers (5-0) at Redskins (1-5)
Opening line: 49ers, -9.5 points
When it comes to covering the spread, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS this year, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. They've also gone 0-5 both straight-up and ATS In their past five games as a home underdog, including three losses this year to the Patriots, Bears and Cowboys. Overall, the Redskins are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games. As for the 49ers, they're 0-5 ATS in the past five games where they've been favored by a touchdown or more. However, they are 4-1 ATS in 2019, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL.
Chargers (2-4) at Titans (2-4)
Opening line: Pick'em
Home-field advantage hasn't been much of an advantage for the Titans, lately. Dating back to last season, the Titans are 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, including 0-2 this year. Also, October hasn't exactly been a kind month for Tennessee. Including Sunday's loss to the Broncos, the Titans have lost five straight in October and have gone 1-4 ATS in those games. Of course, the Chargers aren't exactly a safe bet and that's because they've gone 1-4 both straight-up and ATS in their past five games. That being side, it's possible that a trip to Nashville will fix the Chargers problems, and that's because they've been nearly unbeatable on the road. Not only have the Chargers won seven of their past eight road games, but they've also gone 7-1 ATS in those games.
Saints (5-1) at Bears (3-2)
Opening line: Bears, -3.5 points
If you bet against the Saints this week, you're doing it at your own risk and that's because this team has covered the spread in 15 straight October games, including Sunday's win over Jacksonville. In their past 20 October games, they're 19-1 both straight-up and ATS. Sean Payton is also 4-0 both straight-up and ATS against the Bears over the past 10 years, which has nothing to do with October, but is still an interesting fact. Of course, if there's one team that could end that Saints' streak, it's the Bears, who are 18-6-1 ATS in their past 25 home games.
Ravens (4-2) at Seahawks (5-1)
Opening line: Seahawks, -4 points
This game is being played in Seattle, which is important to note, because Russell Wilson has been almost unbeatable at home against AFC teams. Since his rookie year in 2012, the Seahawks have gone 14-1 straight-up in home games against AFC teams, although they've gone just 9-6 ATS. As for the Ravens, they've had some serious struggles covering the spread against NFC teams. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Ravens have gone 3-10 ATS against the NFC (6-7 straight-up). In a somewhat odd stat, Pete Carroll is 6-1-1 ATS in Week 7 games since being hired by the Seahawks in 2010 (In that same time frame, the Ravens are 1-7-1 ATS in Week 7 games).
Eagles (3-3) at Cowboys (3-3)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3 points
Although the Cowboys are in the midst of an ugly three-game losing streak, playing an NFC East team might be exactly what they need to fix their problems, and that's because Dallas has been dominating divisional opponents over the past few years. In their past 10 games against NFC East teams, the Cowboys have gone 9-1 both straight-up and ATS. That total includes three straight wins over the Eagles, although all three of those wins came by seven or less points. As for the Eagles, they've actually won five of their past seven games as a road underdog.
Patriots (6-0) at Jets (1-4), Monday
Opening line: Patriots, -10 points
Although the Jets have been absolutely horrible against the Patriots over the past few years, they have managed to cover the spread against New England. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Jets are just 2-11 straight-up, but they're 9-4 ATS. The Patriots have had some trouble covering against AFC East opponents, going just 2-4 ATS in their past six games (5-1 straight-up). Of course, if there's one time when the Patriots always seem to cover, it's when they're favored by double digits. In the past 20 games where the Patriots have been favored by 10 or more points, they've gone 19-1 straight-up and 16-4 ATS. The Patriots have also gone 4-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past four primetime games.