It's not often that the Buffalo Bills open as a double-digit road favorite, but that's exactly what will be happening this week and a big reason it's going to happen is because Buffalo will be facing arguably the NFL's worst team, the New York Jets.
In the early odds for Week 7, the Bills have opened as a 10.5-point favorite, which is mostly notable because the Bills are almost never favored by that many points on the road. As a matter of fact, this game will mark just the second time over the past 25 years that the Bills have been favored by double-digits in a road game.
The only other time it happened over the past quarter-century came in December 2004, when the Bills were a 10-point favorite against the 49ers in game that was played in San Francisco. Even when the Bills made their four straight Super Bowl trips back in the 1990s, it was still rare to to see them favored by this many. From 1990 to 1993, the Bills only had four games total where they were a double-digit road favorite and that was the best era in franchise history (Three of the four games came against the Colts in Indianapolis).
It was a wild Week 6 Sunday and there's a lot to go over. John Breech and Ryan Wilson join host Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break everything down; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
As for the rest of Week 7, the game between the Steelers and Titans is finally going to be played after being postponed from Week 4. Although both teams are 5-0, oddsmakers seem to like the Steelers slightly better as Pittsburgh has opened as a one-point favorite. The point spread marks the first time in five years that a team with a 5-0 or better record has opened as a home underdog.
The last time it happened came in 2015, when the 7-0 Panthers opened as a 2.5-point underdog to the 6-1 Packers. Not only did the Panthers end up covering in that game, but they won it outright, 37-29.
With that fun nugget in mind, let's get to the rest of the early odds for Week 7.
NFL Week 7 early odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless noted, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Eagles, -6
The Giants might be the most oddly predictable team in the NFL, but only when they play on the road. The odd part here is that they don't ever really seem to win away from New York, but they almost always cover. In their past 18 road games, the Giants have gone an ugly 4-14 straight-up, but they've been a wildly impressive 15-3 ATS, including a 37-34 loss to the Cowboys in Week 5 where they covered as a 9.5-point underdog. As for the Eagles, they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games where they've been favored by six or more points (two of those seven non-covers came against the Giants). The Eagles have won nine of their past 10 against the Giants, but they're just 5-5 ATS in those games.
Bills (4-1) at Jets (0-6)
Opening line: Bills, -10.5
If there's one team you don't want to bet on this year, it's probably the Jets. Through six weeks, the Jets are 0-6 ATS, making them one of just two teams (along with the Cowboys) that has yet to cover the spread in the game this year. On the Bills' end, they're 9-4-1 ATS in their past 14 games dating back to last season. They're also 5-1 straight-up in their past six games as a road favorite (4-2 ATS). When these two teams met back in Week 1, the Bills covered as a 6.5-point favorite in a 27-17 win.
Opening line: Falcons, -3
In what might qualify as a miracle, both of these teams are actually coming off a win in Week 6. The fact that this game is being played in Atlanta might be a good thing for the Lions and that's because the Falcons are 2-8 straight-up and 3-7 ATS In their past 10 home games. After only winning one game on the road last season, the Lions have already doubled that total this year with a 2-1 record both straight-up and ATS away from Detroit. On the other hand, the Lions tend to struggle when they're an underdog of three or more points, going 1-9 straight-up the past 10 times that it's happened (3-7 ATS).
Opening line: Browns, -3.5
It's not normally a good idea to bet on the Bengals, but if there is one situation where it's starting to seem safe, it's when they play against the Browns. The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 games against the Browns and 8-4 straight up. As for the Browns, they're 1-8 both straight-up and ATS in their past nine road games, including Sunday's blowout loss to the Steelers. When these two teams met back in Week 2, the Bengals covered as a 5.5-point underdog in a 35-30 loss.
Steelers (5-0) at Titans (5-0)
Opening line: Steelers, -1
The Titans are one the most perplexing teams to bet on in the NFL this year. Although they're 5-0 straight-up, they're just 2-3 ATS on the season. The Titans are a home underdog in this game, which is notable, because they usually play well in that situation. In their past 10 games as a home dog, the Titans are 7-3 ATS and 6-4 straight-up. As for the Steelers, they've absolutely dominated the AFC South over the past few years. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Steelers have gone 13-1 straight-up against the division (10-3-1 ATS), including their 28-21 win over Houston in Week 3 where they were favored by four points.
Panthers (3-3) at Saints (3-2)
Opening line: Saints, -7.5
Betting against the Saints in the month of October has almost been the same as setting your money on fire over the past few years. Since Week 6 of 2015, the Saints have covered the spread in 18 of their past 19 October games, although that one miss did come this year against the Chargers. Along those same lines, the Saints have also won 14 consecutive games straight-up in the month of October in a streak that dates back to 2016. This is a big point spread though and the Saints don't always handle that so well. In their past 16 games where they were favored by a TD or more, New Orleans is just 7-9 ATS. As for the Panthers, they've lost five straight divisional games and they've gone just 1-4 ATS in those losses.
Cowboys (2-3) at Washington (1-5)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3
The Cowboys are one of just two teams that have yet to cover the spread this year, but that could change if they cover against the Cardinals on Monday night. This will also be the team's first game without Dak Prescott as their starter since 2015. The good news for the Cowboys in Week 7 is that they're playing an NFC East team. In their past 16 games against divisional opponents, the Cowboys are 14-2 straight-up and 13-3 ATS. As for Washington, the Football Team is just 1-7 straight-up in their past eight games against the Cowboys, which includes going 2-6 ATS.
Packers (4-1) at Texans (1-5)
Opening line: Packers, -3
The Packers are 4-1 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Green Bay is also 7-4 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2018 season, which is the third-best mark in the league over that span. The Packers are also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against AFC teams (7-3 straight-up). As for the Texans, they're 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 games against teams from the NFC. The Texans are also just 1-5 ATS on the year and 1-6 ATS in their past seven regular season games dating back to last season.
Seahawks (5-0) at Cardinals (3-2)
Opening line: Seahawks, -3.5
This game will mark the eighth straight time that the Seahawks have been favored over the Cardinals, which is good news for the Cards, because they've fared well as the underdog. In the previous seven games, the Cards have gone 5-1-1 ATS (3-5 straight-up). That being said, this might not be the year you want to bet against the Seahawks and that's because they're 4-1 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Seahawks are also 9-1 straight-up in their past 10 games as a road favorite (5-3-2 ATS). The Cards have also struggled at home lately, going 4-11 straight-up in their past 15 (6-9 ATS)
Opening line: Chiefs, -9
Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 28-4 straight-up against divisional opponents and 21-10-1 ATS. The Chiefs have also dominated the Broncos, going 9-0 straight-up in their past nine games (8-1 ATS). The Chiefs have won and covered in their past five trips to Denver. The Chiefs have also shown a penchant for covering big point spreads as they've gone 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games where they've been favored by nine or more.
49ers (3-3) at Patriots (2-3)
Opening line: Patriots, -4
One of the biggest upsets of 2020 came in Week 5 when the Dolphins beat the 49ers as an 8-point underdog. Despite that loss, the 49ers are still 7-2 ATS in their past nine games against AFC teams. They're also 9-4 straight-up in their past 13 games against AFC teams. This game is being played in the eastern time zone, where the 49ers are 5-1 both straight-up and ATS since the beginning of the 2019 season. One other thing to like about the 49ers is that they've covered in six straight games as an underdog. As for the Patriots, they're 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games against NFC teams. That being said, the Patriots are just 3-8-1 ATS in their past 11 games dating back to last season, including the playoffs.
Jaguars (1-5) at Chargers (1-4)
Opening line: Chargers, -9.5
Playing out west has almost always ended up turning into a disaster for the Jaguars. In their past 10 trips to the pacific time zone, the Jags are just 1-9 straight-up and 2-8 ATS. That being said, if they want to get out of this west coast rut, the Chargers are definitely the team they want to be playing. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Chargers are just 4-13-1 ATS at home (7-11 straight-up). Of those 11 losses, four of those came in games where the Chargers were favored by six points or more.
Buccaneers (4-2) at Raiders (3-2)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -2.5
Betting on Tom Brady in primetime might sound like a good idea, but it hasn't been smart over the past few years. Going back to his time in New England, Brady has lost five straight primetime games while going 0-5 ATS in those games. That total includes four losses with the Patriots and one loss with the Bucs, which came against the Bears on a Thursday night back in Week 5. As for the Raiders, they've actually won the past four primetime games they've played in (4-0 ATS), including their Week 2 win over the Saints when they beat New Orleans 34-24 as a four-point underdog.
Bears (5-1) at Rams (4-2), Monday
Opening line: Rams, -6.5
When it comes to covering the spread, the Bears have actually been a pretty solid bet in primetime. In their past 11 night games, the Bears have gone 8-3 ATS, including a 20-19 win over the Buccaneers in Week 5 when the Bears were an underdog (The Bears have gone 6-5 straight-up in those 11 games). The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in the past five games where they were an underdog of six or more. As for the Rams, they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight primetime games.