I swear I'm not doing this on purpose, but in my college football picks column, The Six Pack, I've dubbed this weekend The Unofficial Week of the Underdog. Well, apparently it's carrying over to my NFL picks, though it wasn't an intentional decision. There were just three underdogs on the slate for Week 7 that I liked a lot more than anything else on the board.
Before we get to this week's picks, however, let's review last week. I followed up my 0-3 performance in Week 5 to go 2-1 last week and improve to 11-7 on the season in this space. I'd like to send a quick shout out to Andy Dalton and the Bengals for that beautiful backdoor cover against the Ravens last week. I appreciated it.
All odds are via William Hill.
1. Raiders +5.5 at Packers
There are a couple of driving factors behind this play for me. One is that, say what you want about him, I still think Jon Gruden is a good coach. I think he does a great job of putting together individual game plans for opponents, and with the Raiders coming off a bye, I expect he'll have something for the Packers this week. As for the Packers, they're 5-1 but they'd be 4-2 if not for a lot of help from the refs on Monday night. Also, this team isn't as good as its record suggests, plus it's quite banged up. The defense started hot but has regressed a little in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers is above average, but that's about it. Put all of that together, and I don't know if the Raiders knock off their second consecutive NFC North opponent, but they'll cover.
Prediction: Packers 24, Raiders 21
2. Texans +1 at Colts
This is a huge matchup in the AFC South, and I think the wrong team is favored. The Colts offense is heavily dependent on the run game because, while he's not bad, Jacoby Brissett isn't what anybody would consider a world-beater at QB. The Houston defense is great against the run, ranking sixth in the league in rush defense DVOA. Because of that, the Colts are going to have to keep up with Houston through the air, and if it's coming down to a QB shootout between Brissett and Deshaun Watson, well, it seems to be an obvious choice. Also, for whatever it's worth to you, the road team has gone 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these division rivals. The underdog is 6-2-2 in the last 10 as well.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 17
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3. Eagles +3 at Cowboys
Do we know if Amari Cooper is going to play in this game? What about Dallas' starting tackles Tyron Smith and La'el Collins? If those three are out, do you feel comfortable laying points with the Cowboys? None of which is to say that the Eagles aren't banged up themselves, nor are they the team most expected them to be. Still, how many key cogs of the Dallas offense can the Cowboys lose while still earning your trust? For me, I think we've crossed that line. If the Cowboys need Ezekiel Elliott to carry the load, this is a bad matchup. The Philadelphia defense ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA and shut down Dalvin Cook last week. The road team has covered 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two, and it'll be 12 of 16 on Sunday night.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 24
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
Last Week | 2-1 | +0.9 |
Season | 11-7 | +3.3 |
