As the old adage goes, "Any given Sunday." Who had P.J. Walker and the Cleveland Browns upsetting the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers? Or the Philadelphia Eagles losing their first-ever game to the New York Jets? How about the New York Giants keeping it close with the Buffalo Bills? Unfortunately, a couple of our best bets were on the wrong side of some of these HUGE surprises.
We've been hovering around .500 for the majority of the season, as I'm still waiting for that breakout week. But it's coming. Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 13-15-2
Overall ATS record: 43-47-3
Straight up record: 58-35
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
I want some action on "Thursday Night Football" and I'm going to bet against the surging Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence went 38-2 in college during his incredible time at Clemson. Where did both of those losses occur? NEW ORLEANS.
I'm not going to sugarcoat the Saints offense last week. They racked up 430 yards of total offense but scored 13 total points. As they return to the warm embrace of their home fans against a 90% healthy Lawrence who is dealing with a knee injury, give me New Orleans' defense over Jacksonville's. Vegas knows all, and I agree with this line.
The pick: Saints -1
Projected score: Saints 17-14
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
A gross game between two backup quarterbacks, so obviously I'm going to make this a best bet. Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a back injury, and could miss this week, while Justin Fields is "doubtful" due to a dislocated thumb. He reportedly doesn't require surgery, but gripping the ball is the main concern.
With Fields likely out, it appears Tyson Bagent is in line to make his first NFL start. He had two turnovers in relief of Fields last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but the undrafted rookie from Shepherd University is the all-time NCAA leader in career touchdown passes with 159!
If Jimmy G can't start, it will be Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell under center. I have more faith in either one of these quarterbacks, so I'll take the Raiders as a best bet. Maybe Bagent is the next big thing and I'm on the wrong side of a legend, but I think the Raiders are the better team.
The pick: Raiders -3
Projected score: Raiders 17-10
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Something is wrong with the Patriots, and it kind of makes me sick as an NFL fan to see Bill Belichick's squad struggling like this. I mean, it was fun to root against him when Tom Brady was carving up everyone, but this Patriots team isn't fun for ANYONE.
The Bills cost me a best bet last week, which I'm mad about, but I think we can all agree Buffalo is a better team than New England. The Bills are 3-3 ATS while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS. Buffalo is 3-0 ATS in its last three games vs. New England, and this could be a "get-right" spot for the Bills. I mean, New England is -80 in score margin this year. That's second worst in the NFL.
The pick: Bills -8.5
Projected score: Bills 29-20
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is the first time the Seahawks are 7+ point favorites since Russell Wilson got traded! It's a big number, but I'm going to take Seattle at home. The Cardinals are in the midst of a six-game road losing streak. I faded the Cardinals on the road last week and it was a great choice, as the Los Angeles Rams scored 23 straight points to win, 26-9.
The Seahawks are coming off a deflating loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in which they scored just three second-half points while Geno Smith threw two interceptions. The key stat from the 17-13 defeat was that Seattle went 1-5 in the red zone. I have faith the offense as a whole can get back on track, and then the Seahawks defense has been great as of late. Over the last three weeks, Seattle's opponents are averaging 10 points per game and 231 yards of total offense. Joe Burrow threw for just 185 yards and Joe Mixon rushed for 38 yards last week.
The Seahawks are the better team, and actually a squad I think could be ready to take off. Plus, after starting the season 3-0 ATS, Arizona has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games.
The pick: Seahawks -8
Projected score: Seahawks 26-13
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Yes, the Packers have struggled as of late. After averaging 31 points per game in Weeks 1-2, they've averaged just 17 points per game over the last three weeks. Jordan Love's last outing was atrocious, as he threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions in a loss to the Raiders. However, Green Bay is coming off of its bye week and could be set for a breakout game.
The Broncos are allowing 33.3 points per game and 440.3 total yards per game, both of which rank most in the NFL. Now, the Broncos defense did actually put together their best performance of the season last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the offense rewarded them by completely falling apart as Denver failed to cover the spread for the sixth straight game.
The NFL trade deadline usually isn't that dramatic, but there has been plenty of talk surrounding the Broncos. You have to wonder how that could affect the locker room. I feel like the Packers are a better team than what they've shown over the last three weeks. With the number so low, give me Green Bay.
The pick: Packers -1
Projected score: Packers 27-20
Other Week 7 picks
Colts (+2.5) 20-17 over Browns
Lions (+3) 24-23 over Ravens
Buccaneers (-2.5) 23-16 over Falcons
Commanders (-2.5) 25-20 over Giants
Rams (-3) 23-16 over Steelers
Chiefs 28-24 over Chargers (+5.5)
Dolphins (+2.5) 29-26 over Eagles
49ers (-7) 27-17 over Vikings
