An awful performance by the Cowboys means our Teaser of the Week is no longer undefeated on the year, but it's hard to complain about a 4-1-1 performance through six weeks. However, we have some great options on the table this week, at least in the first few spots of our rankings.
The best option comes to us in the form of Justin Herbert and the Chargers. I tend to be a little cautious teasing the Chargers, because they're the type of team that seems to lose outright often as six- or seven-point favorites, but this is a great spot for them. They're coming off a bye and still looking for their first win under their new QB despite the rookie impressing since he took over in Week 2. A great antidote for losing? A matchup with the Jaguars, a team that beat the Colts in Week 1, stayed close against the Titans in Week 2 then fell apart over the next four weeks.
I've done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I've ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.
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Ranking teaser options
1. Chargers -2 vs. Jaguars
The Chargers have given up more than 400 yards of offense in three of their five games this season, but those came against the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints, three offenses that give most teams trouble. The Jaguars have given up 400 yards of offense in each of their last three games against the Bengals, Texans and Lions -- not exactly similar competition. The Chargers are good enough to get to eight or nine wins and compete for a playoff spot, and it starts this week against a terrible Jacksonville team.
2. Lions +8 at Falcons
The Lions have been in almost every game this year, losing by more than six points only once. The Falcons are a little overvalued coming off their first win of the season, and part of their success was due to getting three takeaways against Minnesota. But the Lions have turned the ball over just four times in five games, so as long as we don't get a Matthew Stafford meltdown, I can't see the Falcons blowing out the Lions. Plus, the backdoor will be wide open against a bad Atlanta secondary.
The 49ers got back on track against the Rams on Sunday night, while the Patriots looked like a team that dealt with a COVID-19 scare and couldn't practice much all week in a loss to the Broncos. The Patriots want to run the ball above all else, which can shorten the game and make it harder to cover big numbers, and the 49ers have done a good job defending the run this year by ranking ninth in yards per rush allowed. Also note that this is sneakily a revenge spot for the 49ers as it'll be Kyle Shanahan's first time facing Bill Belichick since the 28-3 Falcons collapse in the Super Bowl.
4. Saints -1.5 vs. Panthers
I probably wouldn't go further than this when looking for teams to tease this week, and even here I'm a little bit hesitant with the Panthers looking frisky over the first six weeks of the season. The Saints got blown out coming out of their bye last year but were 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 post-bye games before that, so this is typically a good spot for Sean Payton's squad. Michael Thomas should finally be back this week, and I don't know what the Panthers do to slow both him and Alvin Kamara down.
This isn't a particularly good teaser number since the Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points, but the Cardinals should be a relatively safe teaser team. Even if the Seahawks have success against the Cardinals defense -- and I think we can assume they will -- their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone this year, and that's led to Seattle winning by double-digits just once this year despite being 5-0. Their lowest yards-allowed total of the season is 415; the Cardinals will have plenty of opportunities to score points here.
6. Chiefs -4 at Broncos
This is another line that isn't a particularly good teaser number since we can't get it through three, but the best team in the league should be able to beat a struggling Broncos offense by more than four points, so it's going to make our cut despite the number.
7. Titans +8 vs. Steelers
I'm becoming more and more of a believer in the Titans the more I watch their offense, but the Tennessee defense is not playing well at all. If the Steelers defense plays at their ceiling, I could definitely see Pittsburgh winning this one by double-digits. So even though we're able to tease this one through three and seven, I can only stick it at the bottom of my rankings.
Lines to avoid teasing
Yes, the Eagles continue to lose pieces on offense. But do you really trust the Giants to cover +10 against anybody? They've had no more than 300 yards of offense in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming out of a stretch of games against the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens but were able to score at least 25 points in each of those games despite the state of their offense. I'm not ruling out a Philadelphia blowout here.
There isn't much value in teasing the Bills down to -7, because if you like them at that teased number, you should probably just take them to cover the 13. And no one wants any part of the Jets regardless of the number.
Browns (-3) at Bengals
It's probably tempting to tease the Bengals up to nine after they scored 30 on the Browns back in Week 2, but that was a weird game where the Bengals scored a meaningless TD with less than a minute left to get within five and went 5 for 5 on fourth down in the game. Baker Mayfield probably won't have to do a ton here after Cleveland rushed for more than 200 yards in the first meeting between these teams.
Cowboys (PK) at Washington
This will probably fall within six either way, so it might look tempting to tease this one, but can you trust either of these teams to not get blown out?
Packers (-3.5) at Texans
The Packers could definitely win this one by double-digits with the state of the Texans defense and with the Packers likely fully focused following an embarrassing loss to the Bucs. So no teasing the Texans up here.
Buccaneers (-3) at Raiders
The Buccaneers are playing as well as anyone in the league right now, so I wouldn't tease against them here. Yes, the Raiders just scored 40 on the Chiefs, but the Bucs have a much better defense and match up well against the Vegas offense.
Bears at Rams (-5.5)
The Bears are probably a safe teaser team with how well their defense is playing, but if the Rams offense is clicking, you can't feel confident in Nick Foles and Co. to keep up, can you?