Sometimes it's just not your day. Or month. Or year. It's not my year in terms of my best bets and my entries for the Super Contest. I'm repping #TeamOS poorly and I'm deep in a hole. But there's suddenly something more important than a million dollars to play for: pride. I've got to gain some steam here and catch Pete Prisco and Nick Kostos, my "friends" on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe via iTunes right here, feel free to review!) and, frankly, I'd like to get warm and make you some money.
As such, it's time to dip back into the old crevasse. It worked well for us before, and it's going to work well this time around. Things have gotten COLD around here the last two weeks in terms of NFL picks. It's not a good feeling. Not going to point out that three of my four losses should have covered and were on the right side most of the time. Nope. Not gonna say worry about last week. Onto Week 9. Time to get locked back in and find some winners.
I actually wanted to take the Jets on Thursday night as a best bet, but was worried about injury reports. Ironically it's going to lead to me taking the Colts at a massive number (more details below) as a result of the Deshaun Watson injury. Sorry, they won, I'm sure you don't believe me (you can see that I took them to win outright on our NFL Experts Picks Page though or by checking out all of my Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread). Don't care. Here are five more below average/terrible teams who will cover as well. I like the Colts getting 7.5 too, for whatever it's worth.
Fade at your leisure and tell me how terrible these picks are on Twitter @WillBrinson.
Riding the Panthers again in an undervalued spot, albeit one that makes me a little bit nervous. Carolina is favored in the Super Contest but you can get them as a dog at the moment, somewhere between +1 and +1.5. Given the movement, it might be worth riding it out and seeing what happens. Carolina is at home, is coming off a strong defensive performance against the Buccaneers (although Jameis Winston being, um, not good helps) and has a defense that can do damage to the Falcons offense and get pressure on Matt Ryan. Kawaan Short feasts on the Falcons: he has 26 sacks in his career and 6.5 (!) have been against the Falcons, in just eight career games. Riding the Panthers for a second straight week feels a little sketchy but they're a home dog at this point. That's silly against a Falcons team that barely beat the Jets (and should have not covered, grr).
The Cardinals shouldn't be favored over anyone, even coming off a bye and even if that anyone is the 49ers. San Francisco stinks and just shut down Pierre Garcon. I would say they are lacking in weapons, but that is a massive understatement. There is C.J. Beathard and, um, Carlos Hyde and, um, Marquise Goodwin and, um, George Kittle and, ummmmmmmmmm. Yeaaaaaah. About that. Boy there isn't a lot to like about the 49ers. But they are home underdogs, they have to think this is a game they can win and the Cardinals are starting Drew Stanton. He's not good. This is just a weird football game that involves San Francisco stealing one and everyone burying the Cardinals for good. Sorry Arizona. It was my fault.
Colts +13 at Texans
As mentioned multiple times throughout the season, I'm entered into the Super Contest as part of #TeamOS with Oddsshark.com. This is important information because you will not be finding the Colts +13 at your local outfit after Deshaun Watson's torn ACL on Thursday afternoon. Instead it's probably the Colts +7.5 or so, but the lines freeze on Wednesday afternoon when they're released and that happened before anyone thought Watson would be injured. I still liked the Colts at this number anyway, but I can't not take it when there's basically a full touchdown's worth of value baked in. I actually like the Colts +7.5 anyway, because I think Jacoby Brissett can move the ball against the Houston defense, but I'm not 100 percent sure it would be one of my best bets. There's just a lot to unpack in terms of an emotional response from the Texans after losing the would-be OROY to a non-contact injury in practice. So I'm throwing you a bonus pick here, just so you have something extra to fade.
Yes, we are diving back into the darkest portions of the crevasse here. The Dolphins have been one of my biggest undoings this season, because I keep believing they'll win football games or keep football games close. They are 4-3, which would be a good argument except their point differential is -60 and they just traded away their best running back in Jay Ajayi. Here's the thing: Adam Gase did this last year and it worked and the Dolphins ripped off a bunch of wins. That's not going to happen this year, but Jay Cutler is back (so that's good??) and the Dolphins can actually put up points against this Raiders defense. Plus it's a primetime home dog. Give me those points and that garbage team. Let's go.
OH YES. The horrible teams and the games late in the week. This is really just a ploy so Pete and Nick can't make fun of me on the podcast we record during the first half of Sunday night. Literally the worst I can be is 0-3. And if I'm 3-0? There will be irrational smacktalk. But in all seriousness, the Lions are a dysfunctional mess -- the coaching advantage of Mike McCarthy versus Jim Caldwell is pretty tremendous. Brett Hundley didn't do, uh, much against the Saints but the Packers aren't going to be run out of the gym by the Lions late. They can pound the ball with Aaron Jones, let their rested defense make some plays and hope that Hundley can complete a deep ball or two. Let the dude use his legs, McCarthy. Home dog, prime time, rinse, repeat.
- Last week best bets: 1-4
- Best bets season: 13-27
- Last week overall: 3-10
- Season overall: 56-60-3