Packers vs. Bears odds, line: 2019 NFL Kickoff Game picks, predictions from proven model on 78-49 run

The Chicago Bears will take the field for the first time in a meaningful game since Cody Parkey's double-bounce off the upright eliminated the Monsters of the Midway from last season's playoffs. They'll host the rival Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field in Thursday's 2019 NFL Kickoff Game. The Bears dominated the NFL defensively a year ago, ending No. 1 in scoring defense (17.7), takeaways (36), interceptions (27), interception return touchdowns (five), opponent passer rating (72.9) and run defense (80.0 yards per game). Although defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is gone, edge-rushing terror Khalil Mack leads a unit that has elite playmakers all over the field. Meanwhile, new head coach Matt LaFleur, the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans last season, makes his head coaching debut for the Packers. Kickoff for Packers vs. Bears is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Sportsbooks list Chicago as a three-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Packers odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 46.5, up from an open of 46. Before you make any Packers vs. Bears picks and NFL predictions, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It nailed its top-rated NFL picks in 2018-19, finishing the season on a sizzling 16-6 run. For the year, it went 30-15 on all top-rated picks (20-8 against the spread), extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. 

The model ranked inside the Top 10 on for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has honed in on Bears vs. Packers in the 2019 NFL Kickoff Game. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has the potential to take the next step entering his third season in the Windy City. After a solid rookie year two seasons ago, Trubisky was even better in 2018 until a shoulder injury hampered his progress. Nonetheless, he still completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also made the Pro Bowl. Just 27 games into his NFL career and in his second year in coach Matt Nagy's system, Trubisky should be even better this year.

The model also knows that Trubisky has improved weapons at his disposal. In the offseason, the Bears traded running back Jordan Howard and selected David Montgomery with their first pick in the NFL Draft (73rd overall). Montgomery had 13 rushing touchdowns last season at Iowa State and averaged 4.7 yards per carry. In addition, receiver Anthony Miller, who played much of last year with a shoulder injury that required surgery, is healthy entering the 2019 campaign and gives Trubisky a potentially dynamic playmaker.

But just because Chicago was the best team in the NFC North last year does not guarantee it will cover the Bears vs. Packers spread on Thursday in the 2019 NFL Kickoff Game.

Rodgers is healthy after two injury-plagued seasons. Though he played 16 games last year, he did so with a tibial plateau fracture and MCL sprain. The last season Rodgers was healthy, in 2016, he completed 66 percent of his passes for 4,428 yards and 40 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. A healthy Rodgers can't be dismissed even by the league's best defense.

In addition, the Packers made significant improvements on defense in the offseason. They signed Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith and drafted Rashan Gary in the first round to bolster the pass rush. They also signed former Bears safety Adrian Amos. Green Bay has the makings of a unit that should be much better than the one that gave up 25.0 points per game last season, which ranked 22nd in the league.

So who wins Packers vs. Bears? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

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