The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers began their rivalry on Nov. 27, 1921 and nearly 100 years later, they'll play for the 203rd time with first place in the NFC North on the line. The Packers rebounded from a blowout loss to the Saints in Week 1 to win their last four games, while Chicago has won three of four to get to 3-2. It will be a tall order for Bears rookie quarterback Justin Fields as he makes his first start against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have won 21 of 26 meetings since Rodgers took over as the starter in 2008 and are 19-7 against the spread during that span.

Kickoff from Soldier Field is set for 1 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Green Bay as a 5.5-point road favorite. The over-under for total points is 44 in the latest Packers vs. Bears odds. Before making any Bears vs. Packers picks or NFL predictions, make sure to check out the NFL analysis and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 6 of the 2021 season on an incredible 125-83 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Packers vs. Bears 10,000 times and just revealed its NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several Week 6 NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Bears spread: Packers -5.5
  • Packers vs. Bears over-under: 44 points
  • Packers vs. Bears money line: Packers -230, Bears +190
  • GB: Packers are 10-1 straight-up in their last 11 road games against the Bears
  • CHI: Under has hit in five of the Bears' last six games 
Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Why the Packers can cover

The Packers opened up the year with a disastrous blowout loss but have returned to form since then. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers' connection with wide receiver Davante Adams has had a lot to do with that success. While Rodgers' numbers are down, Adams leads the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (579). Chicago's pass defense has been solid in 2021, but one of the league's best duos could challenge its secondary.

The Bears have won two straight games with Fields, but their offense is still questionable. The rookie quarterback has completed just 51.4 percent of his passes and has thrown one touchdown with two interceptions. Running back David Montgomery is set to miss an extended period with a knee injury and backup Damien Williams is out with COVID-19.

Why the Bears can cover 

Playing behind an offensive line that struggles in pass protection with a rookie quarterback at the helm, the Bears have leaned on their top-10 defense. Even with running backs David Montgomery (knee) and Damian Williams (reserve/COVID-19) out, the Bears are optimistic that they can continue to be effective running the ball with Fields and Khalil Herbert.

Herbert showed impressive burst and carried the ball 18 times for 75 yards last week, and the Bears have rushed for at least 123 yards in four of five games this season. The Packers rank 18th in yards allowed per carry (4.3), so if the Bears can get downhill in the run game and keep Rodgers off the field, they can give the defense a leg-up defending the future Hall-of-Famer.

How to make Bears vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 42 points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Packers vs. Bears picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bears vs. Packers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,900 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.