Packers vs. Bears odds: Sunday Night Football picks from proven model on 48-34 run

The Bears are experiencing new beginnings, while the Packers welcome back a familiar face. It all goes down on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. For the Bears, former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will take the reigns, while for the Packers, quarterback Aaron Rodgers returns after missing most of last season with a collarbone injury. After opening as 8.5-point favorites, Green Bay is now favored by a touchdown. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 46, down from an open of 47.5. Chicago is +260 on the money line (bet $100 to win $260), while Green Bay is -290 (bet $290 to win $100).

Before you make your Packers vs. Bears picks for Sunday Night Football, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say. The computer went 48-34 on A-rated picks last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. The model finished the 2017 season on a triumphant note when it confidently backed the Eagles, a 5.5-point underdog, over the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.  

Now, the model has simulated Chicago vs. Green Bay 10,000 times to produce strong against-the-spread and Over-Under picks. We can tell you it's leaning Under, saying it hits in 60 percent of simulations. It has also locked in a spread pick that hits well over half the time. You can see it only at SportsLine.

The model knows that Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky was handled with kid gloves as a rookie in 2017, throwing for just seven TDs and seven INTs in 12 games, all starts. The team averaged 175 yards passing, dead-last in the league. 

But the doors will open wider in 2018, with two new starting receivers added in free agency in Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, as well as new TE Trey Burton. 

The Bears' defense ranked ninth in yards allowed in 2017 and recorded 42 sacks, the second-most by the team in two decades. Chicago kept the unit most intact, adding first-round pick Roquan Smith to play ILB, and there is a hope the group could be even better this year. Adding Khalil Mack from the Raiders only makes that more likely. Sunday will be a good test to see how far the Bears have come since last season.

The model is also aware that in order for the Packers to cover, they will need Aaron Rodgers to get production out of a high-powered offense capable of quick-strike scoring. The 34-year-old, two-time MVP played in only seven games last season after fracturing his collarbone in Week 6 against the Vikings.

Manning the running back slots are Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery. Williams was a pleasant surprise during the second half of the season, rushing for 522 yards in his final eight games. Montgomery, who's also a pass-catching threat, is good to go after wrist surgery.

After three years in Seattle, Jimmy Graham is now a Packer. He's hoping to find his previous form as a dominant tight end when he was with the Saints, where he averaged 10.2 touchdowns. Davante Adams had a consistently solid 2017 season, corralling 74 receptions for 885 yards and 10 scores.

So which side of the Bears vs. Packers spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned over $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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