Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL face off on Championship Sunday in just a few hours, as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Brady has helped transform the Buccaneers franchise in his very first season with his new team, as he helped Tampa Bay get back to the postseason for the first time since the 2007 season, and secure its first playoff victory since Super Bowl XXXVII. It's been an incredible run up to this point, but he will have his work cut out for him when it comes to trying to out-duel Rodgers, who led the NFL with 48 passing touchdowns this season in what will likely be an MVP campaign.
So who will come out on top this Sunday? Each week, we'll collect all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. This is your one-stop shop when it comes to picks!
All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
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Buccaneers at Packers spread picks
"This will be Tom Brady against Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't get any better than that. But this game will come down to Rodgers against the Tampa Bay defense more than anything else. That defense was outstanding last week against the Saints, locking down the receivers in man coverage and making it tough for Drew Brees. But that's going to be a bigger challenge against this Green Bay offense, especially the way Rodgers can make plays off schedule. Green Bay made the top-ranked Rams defense look ordinary last week. I think they will continue that here as well. Rodgers is playing the best football of his career. The Bucs were improved on offense last week because they ran the ball. That will have to play out in this one as well. They have to control the football. Brady will challenge down the field, but without the run game it might be a lot tougher against that Green Bay pass rush. In the end, I think Rodgers is playing too well. It will be close for a bit, but Green Bay will win by a touchdown to get to the Super Bowl." -- Pete Prisco on why he has Green Bay advancing to Super Bowl LV.
Our own "Super Stat Geek" R.J. White -- who is also SportsLine's hottest NFL expert -- claims he has a great read on this game. He's an incredible 43-11 on his last 54 Packers picks, so make sure to check out his pick on SportsLine, here.
"When these two teams played earlier this season, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career. During the 38-10 loss, he threw just his third pick-six ever. It was also just the fourth game of his career where he threw multiple interceptions in a game where he was sacked four or more times. You can fool Aaron Rodgers once, but you cannot fool him twice. The Packers QB is playing at an MVP level and I think he out-duels Tom Brady here. Also, the kickoff temperature is expected to be 29 degrees and by principle, I cannot pick a Florida team to win in that kind of weather." -- John Breech on why he likes the Packers.
"I'm mostly fading the idea that the Buccaneers have Aaron Rodgers' number by predicting that the Packers will win and cover over Tampa Bay. Green Bay's Week 6 loss is naturally garnering a lot of attention this week as it was undoubtedly Rodgers' worst game of what is promised to be an MVP season. He completed just 46% of his passes for 160 yards and threw two interceptions (both resulting in eventual touchdowns). I just have a hard time believing that lightning will strike twice in that regard, especially with this latest game at Lambeau Field. If you take away that performance against the Bucs, Rodgers has completed 72% of his throws for an average of 277.2 yards passing to go along with 50 touchdowns to just three interceptions in every other game he's played this year (including playoffs). I am also throwing out Rodgers' 1-3 record in the conference championship with the knowledge that each of those games was played on the road. Even more so than most quarterbacks, Rodgers is dynamite at home.
As for the Buccaneers, while they have the offensive firepower to keep up with Rodgers' offense, I still have questions about their defense. During Super Wild-Card Weekend, they made Taylor Heinicke look like Steve Young, and beating the corpse of Drew Brees, who was unable to throw the deep ball, is hardly impressive. Rodgers is an entirely different animal, who is extremely motivated to get revenge on this unit." -- Tyler Sullivan on why he's picking the Packers.
"I'm going with the Packers. Green Bay has won seven straight games by seven or more points for the first time since 1997, and during that streak, Aaron Rodgers has recorded 24 total touchdowns and thrown just one interception. The Packers had no problem with the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round, defeating them 32-18. Rodgers and the offense tore apart the Rams' top-ranked defense, as they racked up 484 yards of total offense and 28 first downs. Both of those numbers are the most allowed by the Rams in a game all season. This offense has been on an absolute roll, and last week, the Packers scored 32 points on nine drives -- which averages out to 3.56 points per drive. They have now scored 3.09 points per drive this season, which is on pace to be the most in a single season since 2000.
Another reason I like the Packers is that I think Rodgers has been playing with a major chip on his shoulder. When detractors questioned if he would get along with first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers went 13-3 and made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game. Then, when detractors tabbed the Packers as a prime candidate to regress in 2020, they again went 13-3 and made it to the NFC championship. Additionally, Rodgers played what was objectively his worst game of the season against the Buccaneers, and you know that's also fresh in his mind." -- Jordan Dajani on why he's rolling with the Packers.
"There might be snow, but without the wind it's not going to slow down (the Packers') offense. Green Bay scored 32 points with 484 yards vs. that top defense last week. Green Bay has now scored 30 points in seven of their last eight, 24-plus in the last 10 games. Tampa has scored 30 points in their last five and 24-plus in their last nine games. So this seems like a baseline of 48 and you only need an extra field goal to get to the 51 that we need there." -- R.J. White on the "Pick Six Podcast."
On this episode of the Pick Six NFL Podcast, Will Brinson is joined by Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White to break down the conference championships from a gambling perspective. Subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
"As for the total, the Packers have gone Over in six straight playoff games (50-plus total points scored in each game). The Over/Under has risen this week, but I'll still take it." -- Jordan Dajani on why he's taking the Over.
Top prop picks
Leonard Fournette Over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
"Am I getting played here? Fournette has come down with at least 30 receiving yards in three of his past four including each of two playoff games. Something closer to 30.5 should be the line. Fournette definitely played in the passing-downs role last week with Ronald Jones back, checking in on 13 third downs and 12 second downs of 6-plus yards. By comparison, Jones played on one third down and three long second downs. Figure Fournette will remain in position to catch passes and put up some yardage against a Green Bay defense that's yielded 7.3 yards per catch to running backs over its past nine games." -- CBS Sports' Dave Richard.
Josh Allen last TD (+900) -- R.J. White on the "Pick Six Podcast."
Aaron Rodgers over pass TD 2.5 -- Will Brinson on the "Pick Six Podcast."
Davante Adams first TD +550 -- Will Brinson on the "Pick Six Podcast."