The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the Green Bay Packers at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 20 games, but are just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games at home. Green Bay, meanwhile, has won seven straight games but the Packers have lost six of their last nine meetings against the Chiefs. 

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by seven points in the latest Packers vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under is 48. Before locking in your Chiefs vs. Packers picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-86 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick 'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up!

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Now, the model has simulated Packers vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's NFL Week 9 picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Chiefs:

  • Packers vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -7
  • Packers vs. Chiefs over-under: 48 points  
  • Packers vs. Chiefs money line: Chiefs -340, Packers +270 
  • GB: The Packers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games 
  • KC: The total has gone over in six of the Chiefs' last seven games against the Packers
Featured Game| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay has covered and won straight-up in five consecutive games. In fact, the Packers haven't tasted defeat since their Week 1 loss. Aaron Rodgers has been the driving force behind Green Bay's success, but its defense shouldn't be underestimated, especially against a Chiefs offense that hasn't looked elite in weeks.

Kansas City is 0-4 against the spread as a home favorite, and that's a red flag worth noting ahead of Sunday's game. The Chiefs' frequent turnovers have been detrimental to their success. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions since Week 2, and the Packers' top-10 pass defense has 14 picks on the year. Five teams have allowed fewer passing yards per game than Green Bay. The Chiefs might win against the understaffed Packers, but their carelessness with the ball could lead to a close game.

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Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs haven't had much success at home this year, but the Packers haven't gotten desirable results without their starting quarterback. Green Bay has suffered two straight double-digit losses in games Rodgers has been ruled out of. No replacement can match his chemistry with Davante Adams, so Jordan Love's chances of maximizing Green Bay's offensive potential and matching Kansas City's scoring are slim. 

Green Bay's secondary has excelled against the pass but hasn't had to deal with much star power over the past five weeks. The Packers have faced three bottom-six passing teams over their last five games. The Chiefs rank third in passing yards (2,450) and could break out of their slump against a cornerback group that's missing Jaire Alexander. 

How to make Packers vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Chiefs vs. Packers picks at SportsLine

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So who wins Packers vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on its NFL picks, and find out.