Packers vs. Lions odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from top model on 85-57 run

The Packers will try to end a string of futility against their NFC North rivals when Green Bay hosts the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers was effective in spreading the ball around in the absence of top receiver Davante Adams (toe), while running back Aaron Jones helped pick up the slack, scoring four times in an impressive 34-24 victory against Dallas last week. Detroit has won four in a row in the long-running series and had a week to rest after being on the losing end of a battle with the Chiefs. Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite, down from an open of six, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 46.5 in the current Packers vs. Lions odds. Before you lock in your Lions vs. Packers picks and NFL predictions, listen to what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with room to spare against the Falcons

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has broken down Lions vs. Packers. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it has generated an against the spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. The picks are only available at SportsLine. 

The model knows Adams, who leads the team with 25 catches for 378 yards, is out for the second straight game with a toe injury, but Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers still got nine pass-catchers involved against Dallas, while Jones totaled 182 yards.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the team's No. 2 receiver with 17 catches for 235 yards and a touchdown. Geronimo Allison (10 catches for 104 yards and two touchdowns) also has shown potential, while veteran tight end Jimmy Graham (12 for 132 and two scores) can still be effective.

The Packers give up yardage, but they also make plays. Linebacker Blake Martinez is the stopper of the defense, ranking third in the NFL with 55 tackles, and he also has one sack. The Packers are plus-seven in turnover differential and have 24 sacks, 5.5 from Preston Smith and five from Za'Darius Smith.

But just because Green Bay appears to have found balance on offense doesn't mean it will cover the Packers vs. Lions spread on Monday Night Football.

The Lions have felt at home at Lambeau, winning three of their last four visits. They knocked Rodgers from last year's finale with a concussion and quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns in the rout. The victory gave them their first four-game streak against Green Bay since 1982-83. Stafford has thrown for 1,122 yards and nine touchdowns this season.

The Lions' defense has allowed just 23.8 points per game. Safety Tracy Walker has 36 tackles and an interception, while linebacker Devon Kennard has three sacks. Detroit also can make noise on special teams, as Jamal Agnew, an All-Pro as a rookie in 2017, ranks third with a 32.4-yard kick return average, thanks in part to a 100-yard return against the Eagles in Week 3.

So who wins Lions vs. Packers on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Lions vs. Packers spread you should be all over on Monday, all from the model on an 85-57 run on top-rated NFL picks.

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