The Bills are looking to signal a changing of the guard when Buffalo heads to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots on Saturday. The Bills can tie for the top spot in the AFC playoff picture and would be hoping for a Miami win in New England the following week, but breaking a six-game losing skid against the Patriots is motivation enough. Buffalo is 10-4 on the strength of its defense, and the unit would love to make Patriots quarterback Tom Brady show some of his age. The Bills also have gotten steady play from quarterback Josh Allen and rookie running back Devin Singletary. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.

New England is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, while the over-under is 37.5 after dropping as low as 36.5. Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks of your own, go see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 16 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 95-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has broken down Patriots vs. Bills. We can tell you it's leaning under and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Bills vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: New England -6.5
  • Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 37.5
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England -281, Buffalo +225
  • NE: QB Tom Brady is 31-3 against Buffalo
  • BUF: RB Devin Singletary has rushed for at least 75 yards in five of the last seven games.

The model knows the Patriots are 10-6 against the spread in division games since 2017 and Brady continues to win despite a lack of weapons. Mohamed Sanu was brought in to help, and the veteran receiver has 20 catches for 148 yards in six games since coming over from Atlanta. Brady also relies heavily on running back James White, who has caught 65 passes for 588 yards and four touchdowns.

New England is 16-9 against the spread as a home favorite since 2017 and the defense could make life rough for Buffalo's Josh Allen. The quarterback has been sacked 34 times this season, and New England already has 41 QB takedowns already. Linebackers Kyle Van Noy (6.5 sacks) and Jamie Collins (six) lead the way in pressuring the quarterback, and Collins also has three of the unit's 25 interceptions. Stephon Gilmore has six picks, and the cornerback also has broken up 18 passes.

New England has the pedigree, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Bills spread on Saturday. 

The Bills have covered the spread in three of four division games this season and Singletary has made a major difference since becoming the starter in Week 9. The third-rounder has 729 rushing yards and 28 catches for another 192 yards. Allen has thrown 18 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Wide receiver John Brown is averaging 14.2 yards on 71 receptions, while Cole Beasley is a reliable slot man, catching 60 balls for 670 yards.

The defense has been the calling card for Buffalo, which is 9-4-1 against the spread this season. The secondary is the strength of the unit, which allows 190.5 passing yards per game (third in the NFL). Cornerback Tre'Davious White, with six interceptions and 17 passes defended, and safety Jordan Poyer, who has two interceptions and three fumble recoveries, are difference-makers. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is the soul of the defense, posting 105 tackles and 1.5 sacks.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should be all over on Saturday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.