The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a rare situation on Sunday Night Football. In addition to Tom Brady's return to Foxborough for the first time since leaving the New England Patriots, the Buccaneers will also aim to bounce back from a loss. Tampa Bay lost to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, and that was the franchise's first defeat since Nov. 29, 2020. New England is also seeking an important win, as the Patriots are just 1-2 to begin the 2021 campaign.
Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is at 8:20 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Buccaneers as 6.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 49.5 in the latest Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds. Before you make any Buccaneers vs. Patriots picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Buccaneers vs. Patriots. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Buccaneers vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -6.5
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers over-under: 49.5 points
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers money line: Buccaneers -290, Patriots +235
- TB: The Over has hit in all three Buccaneers' games this season
- NE: The Patriots are 1-2 against the spread this season
Why Tom Brady and the Buccaneers can cover
Brady remains one of the best players in the NFL, and he engineers a top-flight offense. Brady is leading the league in both completions (97) and passing touchdowns (10) through three games, and he is No. 2 in the NFL with 1,087 passing yards. Beyond those impressive stats, he lands comfortably in the top 10 in passer rating (109.3), with a tremendous mark in avoiding pressure, allowing a sack on fewer than four percent of his drop-backs.
With Brady at the helm, the Buccaneers lead the league in scoring with 103 points, and they are virtually impossible to stop for a full game. Tampa Bay is averaging 24 first downs per game, No. 7 in the NFL, and the Buccaneers are also generating more than 400 total yards of offense in each contest. With the Patriots ranking only 26th in the NFL in scoring offense through three weeks, the Buccaneers would seemingly have the upper hand in a shootout situation.
Why Mac Jones and the Patriots can cover
New England's defense is quite impressive. The Patriots are a top-unit in scoring defense, allowing only 17 points per game, and they are giving up only 1.33 points per drive in 2021. Bill Belichick's team is also a top-five unit in total defense (282.3 yards allowed per game) and first downs allowed (fewer than 18 per game), and they are No. 2 overall in passing yards allowed, giving up fewer than 160 per game.
For the season, New England has allowed only three touchdown passes while generating five interceptions, and opponents have only produced 5.3 net yards per pass attempt, a top-five figure. In addition to overall efficiency, the Patriots are also creating havoc, forcing a turnover on 15.2 percent of possessions to land in the top eight of the NFL.
How to make Patriots vs. Buccaneers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with both teams projected to combine for 50 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. Go here to see who to pick.
So who wins Buccaneers vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Buccaneers vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that's 123-81 on its NFL picks, and find out.
