Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, spread, line: 2019 NFL picks, predictions from proven model on 94-64 roll

The only Week 14 game that's a playoff rematch from last season is the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New England Patriots. The Chiefs are eyeing payback for a home overtime loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, and kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS from Gillette Stadium. If not for an offsides call on then-Chiefs linebacker Dee Ford late in regulation that wiped out a Tom Brady interception, Kansas City would have likely reached its first Super Bowl since 1970, and Brady and Bill Belichick would have five Super Bowl rings instead of six. The underdog has covered four of the past five in this series. New England is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, while the over-under is 49.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 14 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 32-21 run that dates back to last season. 

It's also on an incredible 94-64 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Patriots. We can tell you the model is leaning under the total, and it says one side of the spread has all the value. Go to SportsLine now to see it. Here are the betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Chiefs spread: New England -3
  • Patriots vs. Chiefs over-under: 49.5 points
  • Patriots vs. Chiefs money line: New England -160, Kansas City +140
  • KC: Chiefs have been better on road (5-1) than at home (3-3) this year
  • NE: Since 2001, Pats are NFL-best 36-4 at Gillette Stadium in December

The model knows that the Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games in the Brady-Belichick era and have covered 47 of their past 69 games following a loss. New England was upset last Sunday night in Houston, 28-22. New England hasn't lost back-to-back games straight-up since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2018 season, and those were both on the road. At home, the Patriots have won their last 21 games and covered 16 of those.

Part of the reason the Patriots may have lost in Houston was a flu bug that swept through the team and left 17 players as questionable, including NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England is also hopeful of getting back starting cornerback Jason McCourty, who has missed the past two games with a groin injury.

But just because New England is favored doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Chiefs spread on Sunday. 

The Chiefs have been a strong road bet the last two-plus seasons, covering 10 of their last 15 away from home and seven of their previous 10 away games against teams with a winning home record. While Patrick Mahomes is 0-2 versus New England in his career including playoffs, he has put up sky-high numbers against the Patriots' defense. The reigning NFL MVP had 352 yards passing and four touchdowns in the 2018 regular-season loss and 295 yards and three touchdowns in the AFC Championship Game defeat.

While Kansas City's defense hasn't been strong against the run this year, it has come up with several big plays. The free-agent addition of safety Tyrann Mathieu has played a major role. "The Honey Badger" has interceptions in back-to-back games and the Chiefs have held the Chargers and Raiders to a combined 26 points in consecutive wins.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model on a 94-64 run on NFL picks.

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