Patriots vs. Chiefs odds: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from top-rated expert who's 8-1 on Kansas City games

History is on the line on Sunday Night Football when the 5-0 Chiefs visit the 3-2 Patriots. With a victory by New England, Tom Brady will become the first quarterback in NFL history to win 200 regular-season games. Kansas City has plenty of milestones in sight, too, as Andy Reid guns for career win No. 200 and Patrick Mahomes tries to become the first Chiefs quarterback to post five straight 300-yard passing games. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is at 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Chiefs odds, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 58.5. Before you make any Patriots vs. Chiefs picks, you need to hear what Vegas legend Micah Roberts has to say.

A former Vegas bookmaker, Roberts has his finger on the Chiefs' pulse: he's 8-1 in his last nine point-spread picks involving K.C., including nailing last week's easy cover when the Chiefs (-3) destroyed Jacksonville, 30-14. On top of that, Roberts is 4-2 in his last six point-spread picks involving New England, meaning he's on a 12-3 run with the SNF combatants. 

After analyzing Chiefs vs. Patriots from every possible angle, Roberts released a strong point-spread pick over at SportsLine.

Roberts knows the Chiefs stunned New England in Foxborough last year in the season-opener, 42-27, and appear more potent this time around. Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns, tight end Travis Kelce has recorded three 100-yard games, Kareem Hunt has already scored five touchdowns, and Tyreek Hill (three TDs) is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. This year's Patriots team also looks more vulnerable than the New England team that Kansas City beat handily last season.

Kansas City has covered every game so far, and the Chiefs also come in riding a four-game cover streak on the road.

But just because Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and Hunt are electrifying doesn't mean they'll keep rolling against a Pats team that has found its mojo. 

With security blanket Julian Edelman back from suspension, Tom Brady looks like himself again. He's thrown for 615 yards and six touchdowns the past two weeks, while rookie Sony Michel has run for 210 yards and two scores in that span. New England's balanced attack could erupt at home against the NFL's 32nd-ranked defense. 

The Pats have covered all three of their home games this season and enter "Sunday Night Football" on a 16-6 ATS run against winning teams.

We can tell you Roberts is leaning Over despite the high total, but his much stronger play is against the spread. Roberts, who ran Station Casinos sportsbooks for over a dozen years, says a major x-factor determines which side of the spread hits hard. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

So who covers in Patriots vs. Chiefs? And what x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the former Vegas bookmaker who's on an 8-1 heater on Chiefs' pointspread picks.

Our Latest Stories