Patriots vs. Giants odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from unbiased model on 85-57 run

The Giants can look to the past for inspiration, but will be banking on the future when New York visits Foxborough to face the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. The Giants can reminisce about 2008, when they dashed the Patriots' hopes of a perfect season by beating them in Super Bowl XLII, and they will be counting on a bounce-back from rookie quarterback Daniel Jones to halt New England's dominant 5-0 start. The Patriots will count on the NFL's top defense and superstar quarterback Tom Brady to improve on his 11-1 mark in Thursday Night Football games. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 17-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Giants odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 42.5 after dipping as low as 41. Before you make your Giants vs. Patriots picks, scope out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Falcons

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has simulated Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Patriots' defense has been far and away the best in the league by almost any measure. New England allows just 6.8 points and 238.4 yards per game and has been tremendously disruptive, easily leading the league in sacks (24) and interceptions (11). Linebacker Jamie Collins leads the team with 4.5 sacks and has three interceptions. He returned one of those picks for a touchdowns and also has a fumble recovery. Safety Devin McCourty has a team-high four picks. 

As long as it has Brady, the offense can still put up big numbers. Brady has 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns this season and moved into third on the NFL's all-time yardage list Sunday. Wide receivers Julian Edelman (29 catches for 336 yards) and Josh Gordon (19-180) are the playmakers, and running back James White (22-178) also has a major role in the passing game. 

But just because New England appears to be rolling through another regular season doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Giants spread on Thursday Night Football. 

Jones had a rough day in a 28-10 loss to the Vikings, getting sacked four times and limited to 182 yards, but if he has time he can find open receivers. The Giants will need receivers to step up in the absence of top wideout Sterling Shepard (concussion) and tight end Evan Engram (knee). Darius Slayton has flashed big-play ability with 157 yards on nine catches, and he had four for 62 against the Vikings. Golden Tate played a limited role in his first game back from a suspension, catching three passes for 13 yards, but he should get more looks Thursday.

The Giants are 5-0 against the spread in the teams' past five meetings, and they will need to pressure Brady, who was sacked four times in a 33-7 rout of the Redskins on Sunday. The Giants have 13 sacks, led by Markus Golden's 4.5, and they have talent in the secondary in cornerback Janoris Jenkins (two interceptions) and safeties Antoine Bethea (40 tackles) and Jabrill Peppers (30 tackles, interception). Giants star running back Saquon Barkley is out with a high ankle sprain. His backup, Wayne Gallman, is out with a concussion.

So who wins Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Giants vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

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