Patriots vs. Jaguars odds: Expert picks, top predictions by data scientist who's 15-5 on New England games

Sweet revenge will be on the minds of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday when they host the New England Patriots at 4:25 p.m. ET in a nationally-televised game on CBS. The Jags held a 10-point lead and the ball in Foxborough in last season's AFC Championship Game before the Patriots roared back with 14 unanswered points and a resounding game-saving stop to clinch a Super Bowl berth. Jacksonville knows it allowed a golden opportunity to slip through its fingers in January, and it's determined to not make the same mistake twice. The Patriots are 1.5-point road favorites, up half-a-point from the open. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has dropped from 45 to 44.

Before you make your Patriots vs. Jaguars picks, you need to see what Stephen Oh has to say. Oh, a renowned data scientist and co-founder of AccuScore, specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis. He is focused on NFL picks right now and is on a remarkable 15-5 hot streak on selections involving the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big. 

Now, he has scrutinized Patriots vs. Jaguars from every possible angle to reveal a strong point-spread pick. You can only see it at SportsLine.

Oh knows that even at 41, Patriots QB Tom Brady is showing no signs of slowing down. His 277 passing yards last week against the Texans put him within 3,600 of the 70,000-yard plateau. He'll need another strong performance on Sunday if he expects to take down the defensively stout Jaguars.

All-world tight end Rob Gronkowski muscled his way into the end zone from 21 yards out for New England's first score of the 2018 season. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett snagged a touchdown reception after not getting a single one in 2017. Former Raiders receiver Cordarrelle Patterson caught one Brady pass in his Patriots debut and returned a kickoff. His lightning-quick speed makes him a legitimate threat to take any touch to the house.

In January's game, New England found success over the middle. Danny Amendola, now in Miami, posted a 7-84-2 stat line, while Brandin Cooks, now on the Rams, went for 100 yards receiving. New England's defense posted 82 total tackles.

Just because New England covered in January doesn't mean they'll win on Sunday. If Leonard Fournette (hamstring) can't go for the Jaguars, TJ Yeldon will take a majority of the handoffs. In addition to his TD grab last week, he plowed for 51 rushing yards on 14 carries. He's also a better receiver out of the backfield than Fournette, giving Jacksonville a dynamic weapon on offense.

Wide receiver Dede Westbrook, also in his second season, is a star in the making. He should have a conditioning edge over the Patriots' defensive backs on Sunday, as having played at Oklahoma, he's used to competing in hot weather. Temperatures are expected to hit 93 degrees for kickoff and could play a factor. 

We can tell you Oh is leaning under, but he has evaluated all of these circumstances and found a critical stat for which side of the spread you should be all over in this one. 

So which side of the spread should you back for Patriots vs. Jaguars, and which critical stat makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine here to see which side you need to be all over, from the expert on a monster 15-5 Patriots heater, and find out.

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