The Detroit Lions look to shake off a 0-2 start, but it won't be easy. Detroit hosts the motivated New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET. The latest Patriots vs. Lions odds have New England at -6.5, down a half-point from the opening line of -7. The over-under for total points scored has been one of the biggest movers of Week 3. It opened at 47, but has risen over a touchdown to 55 as bettors expect a shootout. New England fell to 1-1 with a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville in Week 2, while Detroit lost at San Francisco 30-27. Before making any Patriots vs. Lions picks, you should see what SportsLine data engineer Stephen Oh is saying.
Oh, a renowned data scientist and co-founder of AccuScore, specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis. He is focused on NFL picks right now and is on a remarkable 9-3 hot streak on selections involving the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.
Now, he has scrutinized Patriots vs. Lions from every possible angle to reveal an ultra-confident strong point-spread pick. You can only see it at SportsLine.
Oh knows three-time MVP Tom Brady has thrown for 511 yards, five TDs and one INT for a solid 104.1 QB rating for the Patriots, but most of the numbers came against the Jaguars came late when the game was out of hand. He'll have a new weapon at his disposal in WR Josh Gordon, whom the Browns traded to the Pats for a fifth-round draft pick.
Gordon has played in just 11 games over the last five seasons, but in 2013 he had 87 receptions for 1,646 yards and nine TDs. How much he'll play on Sunday, if at all, remains to be seen as he continues to learn the offense. Brady still has Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski, who has nine catches for 138 yards and one TD. Brady and company will face a Lions defense that ranks fourth in passing yards allowed at 168 per game, but will likely be without standout CB Darius Slay (concussion), a big blow that could drastically alter the defensive backfield rotation.
New England should have inside knowledge of the Lions' defense. Detroit hired Matt Patricia, who spent 14 seasons in New England and was the team's defensive coordinator from 2012-17, to be its head coach this off-season. The Patriots have feasted on teams with losing records lately, covering in eight of their last nine.
Just because the Patriots have plenty of firepower doesn't mean they'll cover the spread on "Sunday Night Football."
The Patriots' defense was torched by Blake Bortles, who threw for 377 yards and four TDs in the Jaguars' win on Sunday. That bodes well for Lions QB Matthew Stafford, who has already passed for 647 yards in two games. Kenny Golladay has already gained 203 yards on 13 receptions and Golden Tate has 188 yards on 14 catches. That doesn't include Marvin Jones (17 for 108) -- each WR has a touchdown, giving the Lions one of the top aerial attacks in the league.
Defensively, the Lions have been a nightmare for opposing passing games. They've allowed 168 passing yards per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL, and have eight QB sacks, third-most heading into Week 3.
We can tell you Oh is leaning under, but he has evaluated all of these circumstances and says there's a huge X-factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.
So which side of the spread is a must-back for Patriots vs. Lions? Visit SportsLine here to see which side you need to be all over, from the expert on a monster 9-3 Patriots heater, and find out.
