The New England Patriots' toughest stretch of the season continues on Sunday when they take on the Houston Texans in a pivotal Sunday Night Football matchup at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Patriots (10-1) are in the midst of a five-game stretch against teams .500 or better: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston and Kansas City. They have gone 2-1 so far, losing to the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Texans (7-4) enter Sunday's showdown having won two straight games. And despite winning five of its last seven games, Houston is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five outings. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Texans odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 47. Before you make any Texans vs. Patriots picks, see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Patriots. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Texans vs. Patriots:  

  • Patriots vs. Texans spread: New England -3.5
  • Patriots vs. Texans over-under: 47 points
  • Patriots vs. Texans money line: New England -170, Houston +155
  • NE: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has not allowed a catch in back-to-back games
  • HOU: Receiver DeAndre Hopkins is No. 2 in the NFL in receptions (81)

The model knows that the Patriots have dominated the series against the Texans in the Bill Belichick era. Since the 2000 season, New England is 10-1 against Houston during the regular season and playoffs. The average score over those 11 games has been Patriots 33, Texans 19. Houston's last win came in the final week of the 2009 season.

In addition, the model has factored in that Stephon Gilmore has been a shutdown corner for New England. He has not allowed a catch in back-to-back weeks and has an interception and three pass breakups over that span. There are few, if any, corners who are better suited to go up against one of the top receivers in the NFL, Houston's DeAndre Hopkins.

Even so, New England, a team getting 7-2 Super Bowl odds in the latest NFL futures, isn't guaranteed to cover the Texans vs. Patriots spread on Sunday Night Football.

The model knows that Houston has one of the best offenses in the league. The Texans rank in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive statistic. They're No. 7 in total offense (381.6 yards per game), No. 7 in rushing offense (136.9 yards per game) and No. 10 in scoring offense (24.1 points a game).

Houston's defense will also face a New England offense that has been misfiring in recent weeks. In fact, the Patriots have scored a paltry 16.7 points and gained just 307.3 yards a game over the last three contests. Both of those rank 23rd in the league during that time period.

So who wins Patriots vs. Texans on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Texans spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.