It's Week 15 of the NFL season.
Where the hell did the season go? I always say this: If life went as fast as the NFL season, we'd all be in big trouble. It flies by quickly.
As it is, we all have three more weeks to get our picks record up before the end.
I need to do so for sure after a disappointing record last week that derailed my hot streak. I'd like to finish strong, and that's what I expect to do, starting with calling an upset in the Chargers-Chiefs game Thursday night.
I am bucking a major trend there since the Chiefs have won nine straight, but call it a hunch because I think this is the year the Chargers get over the can't-win-the-big-game hurdle. It will be a late sack/fumble caused by Joey Bosa that locks up the win for the Chargers.
Three weeks to go. Time to get hot again. The end is near.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-3.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network)
If the Chiefs win here, they are division champs. The Chargers could tie them with a victory, but would still need some help to win the division. Let's just say this is a huge game. The Chiefs have won nine straight against the Chargers, but this Chargers team is better than most of those. Look for a big-time shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers. In the end, Rivers will get the best of it.
Pick: Chargers 33, Chiefs 31
Result: Chargers 29, Chiefs 28
Cleveland at Denver (-3)
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Browns are coming off an impressive victory over the Panthers, while Denver looked bad losing at San Francisco. But I think the Broncos will re-group here behind their defense to slow Baker Mayfield and force a few turnovers to win this one. Denver takes it.
Pick: Broncos 23, Browns 17
Result: Browns 17, Broncos 16
Houston (-6) at New York Jets
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Texans are coming off a home loss to the Colts, while the Jets showed some life in a come-from-behind victory over the Bills. But this Texans front will create all kinds of problems for Sam Darnold in this one, which will lead to short fields for the Texans offense. Houston will get back on track.
Pick: Texans 28, Jets 17
Result: Texans 29, Jets 22
Green Bay at Chicago (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Packers have small playoff hopes alive, but they have to win here. Aaron Rodgers has had great success against the Bears in his career, but this is a good Bears defense. Even so, I expect Rodgers to keep it close. But the Bears will find a way to pull out a tough victory.
Pick: Bears 24, Packers 21
Detroit at Buffalo (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is a game featuring two teams going nowhere, but they showed last week they are still playing hard. The Lions are playing consecutive road games, and their offense is limited going against a good Bills defense. The Bills will win the game behind that defense.
Pick: Bills 20, Lions 13
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Ravens will again start Lamar Jackson in this one. His injured ankle needs to be monitored because a big part of his game right now is his mobility. The Bucs have improved on defense and they can score, even against a good Baltimore defense. Even so, I look for the Ravens with playoff motivation to play big here.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bucs 17
Arizona at Atlanta (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is a game with two teams going nowhere. The Falcons are a major disappointment, but I think they will show up for this one. This is a long trip for an Arizona team that is so limited on offense. The Falcons win it easily.
Pick: Falcons 31, Cardinals 17
Oakland at Cincinnati (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Raiders showed some life last week in beating the Steelers. The offense came alive and impressed. The Bengals also played well against the Chargers. Since this is a long trip for the Raiders, I think it will impact how they play and the Bengals will pull out a close, high-scoring game.
Pick: Bengals 30, Raiders 27
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Tennessee at New York Giants (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Somehow the Giants are still alive. The Titans certainly are as well. This will be a tough, hard-nosed game. But I think Tennessee's troubles on the road will show up here. The Giants will stay alive.
Pick: Giants 27, Titans 20
Miami at Minnesota (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is a big game for both teams. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings play on offense after firing coordinator John DeFilippo. They should be more run-heavy now, which could be the way to play the Dolphins this week. Miami is playing good football, though, and Ryan Tannehill is playing well. I think that shows up here and they hang around in this one, but the Vikings win it late.
Pick: Vikings 24, Dolphins 23
Washington at Jacksonville (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is a dog game with two teams going nowhere. It will be Josh Johnson vs. Cody Kessler at quarterback for the two teams. Oh, boy. I think the Redskins are more inept right now. Jaguars take it at home.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Redskins 7
Dallas at Indianapolis (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is a monster game for both teams. The Colts upset the Texans last week to get back on track. The Cowboys have won five straight to get to first place in their division. Their defense against Andrew Luck will decide this game. I think Luck will get the best of it.
Pick: Colts 24, Cowboys 20
Seattle (-5.5) at San Francisco
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Seahawks are on their way to the playoffs, while the 49ers are still showing some fight after beating the Broncos last week. Seattle is coming off a tough, physical game with the Vikings so there will be a little bit of a letdown here. The 49ers will hang around, but Seattle will win it late.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 21
New England (-1) at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is the game of the week, and both teams need it badly – the Pats for seeding and the Steelers to keep pushing for a division title. New England has owned the Steelers and Tom Brady has been sensational against them. With Ben Roethlisberger hurting, I think the Patriots will win another as Brady has a big day.
Pick: Pats 31, Steelers 23
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams (-9)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Eagles will be playing for their playoff lives here, while the Rams will be looking to get back on track after a bad showing at Chicago. With the Eagles having defensive issues, I think the Rams do just that. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have bounce-back games as the Rams win it. The Nick Foles magic of a year ago won't matter here.
Pick: Rams 31, Eagles 19
New Orleans (-6) at Carolina
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Panthers hardly look like the team we saw six weeks ago that had a playoff feel to it. This one has a litany of problems. The Saints got back on track last week against Tampa Bay. The offense sputtered some in that game, but it won't here. Look for Drew Brees to light up a bad Panthers secondary.
Pick: Saints 28, Panthers 20
