Picking games in the final week of the NFL season is comparable in some cases to picking preseason games.

Good luck with it. 

Motivation is always a tough thing to gauge, which makes it so challenging. What teams will be playing hard with nothing at stake? What teams are in Cabo or Aruba already starting a vacation – at least in their minds? 

It's a challenge for sure, but I think I have a pretty good grasp on it this week. I went 14-2 straight up last week with my picks, which has me feeling pretty good. With one Sunday to go in the regular season, let's close on a good note.

How about 13-3? 

I think I can get to that record – if the motivation keys play true.

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Cleveland (+6) at Baltimore

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

If the Ravens win, they are in the playoffs. But it won't be easy. The Browns are playing good football and the run defense is solid. That will make it a challenge for Lamar Jackson. But the Baltimore defense is special and will limit Baker Mayfield. Ravens take it in a close one.

Pick: Ravens 19, Browns 16

Miami at Buffalo (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This is a game featuring two teams going nowhere. But the Bills are still playing hard and you have to wonder about the motivation of the Dolphins playing in the cold of Buffalo. The Bills will win it. 

Pick: Bills 23, Dolphins 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Eagles are making a late-season push to the playoffs behind Nick Foles. He has been really good. The Redskins are done, but still playing hard. Even so, look for the Eagles to win this one with the motivation of possibly winning and being in the playoffs. 

Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 14

Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The winner of this game might be the division champ, but will definitely be in the playoffs. The status of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota bears watching. If Blaine Gabbert plays, it will be tough for the Titans. No matter who plays quarterback, they will play second fiddle to Colts passer Andrew Luck. The Colts are going to the playoffs. 

Pick: Colts 23, Titans 19

Detroit at Green Bay (-7.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers seemed to find their offense last week and I think that will carry over here. The Lions have defensive issues that Aaron Rodgers will exploit. Look for a big offensive showing here by the Packers.  

Pick: Packers 31, Lions 21

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Houston

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jaguars would love to ruin the Texans chances to win the division. The way the Jaguars defense played last week, they might be able to do so. Blake Bortles is back at quarterback, which was the right move. The Texans can lock up the division with a victory, so the motivation is on their side. They will win a tough one with Deshaun Watson making a big play late. 

Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17

Oakland (+13.5) at Kansas City 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

If the Chiefs win here, they lock up the top seed in the AFC.  I think that will happen, even if the Raiders have played better lately as a team. The Chiefs offense will be too much for the Raiders, but Oakland will score here as well. It will be fun, but the Chiefs will take it. 

Pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 27

Chicago at Minnesota (-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Bears can get the second seed if they win and the Rams lose. The Vikings win this and they are in the playoffs. The latter is much bigger in terms of motivation and I think that will show up. Kirk Cousins will play well in a big game. 

Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 16

New York Jets at New England (-13.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Patriots can lock up the second seed with a victory. The Jets are playing out the string, which is a big edge for the Pats. Sam Darnold has played well for the Jets lately, but I think he will run into problems here. The Patriots will win this game and earn the bye. 

Pick: Patriots 33, Jets 16

Carolina at New Orleans (-10)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Saints have locked up the top seed, so they will rest players at some point in this one. The Panthers are down to Kyle Allen at quarterback, and he's making his first NFL start here. Even the Saints backups should get the best of it. 

Pick: Saints 26, Panthers 13

Dallas at New York Giants (-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Cowboys are locked into the fourth seed, so they don't need this game. The Giants are playing out the string, but they've played well the past six weeks. I think that will show up here as they beat a Dallas team focused on next week. 

Pick: Giants 27, Cowboys 20

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-14.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers need to win this game and get help from the Browns to make the playoffs. I think they get their victory easy here. Their passing game will light up the Bengals and give them a shot to get into the postseason. 

Pick: Steelers 34, Bengals 19

Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Falcons are playing consecutive road games, which is tough with nothing to play for going forward. But the Bucs have had issues all season long on defense, which should mean a big day for Matt Ryan. Look for a lot of points, but Falcons take it. 

Pick: Falcons 33, Bucs 28

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Denver 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chargers are still in play for the top seed in the AFC, while the Broncos are getting ready for vacation. The motivation edge goes to the Chargers, and they are the better team. Look for Philip Rivers and the offense to get back on track. 

Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 17

San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams (-10)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Rams need this game to lock up the second seed in the NFC. That's not a good thing for the 49ers. The Rams will be focused here, and they are clearly the better team. This could get out of hand early. Look for Jared Goff to have a big day.

Pick: Rams 30, 49ers 13

Arizona at Seattle (-7)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

The Seahawks are going to the playoffs, so they might rest some guys, who are a bit banged up. But Pete Carroll likes to play to win, so figuring it out is the hard part. Does it really matter against the worst team in the league? Seahawks will win big. 

Pick: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 10