Is this NFL season a mess or what?

Who saw the New England Patriots as the worst defensive team in the league?

Who saw the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams all being 3-1 after the first month, with all three having a piece of first place in their respective divisions?

That's what makes picking games so hard in the league. But, somehow, someway, in a crazy week, I had a good week picking games in Week 4.

The slow start is behind me.

This week we will find out more about the Bills, Lions and Rams as they all play big games against good teams. I picked just one of them to win this week, that being the Lions.

Then again, who the hell can figure out this league?

Buffalo (3-1) at Cincinnati (1-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Are the Bills for real? They pulled off a big upset at Atlanta last week, but are playing consecutive road games. The Bengals seemed to find themselves last week at Cleveland. This won't be that easy, but Andy Dalton pulls it out late.

Pick: Bengals 24, Bills 20


New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland (0-4) 

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Jets have won two consecutive games and have a real chance to get over .500 here. The Browns are a mess right now. The Jets will pull this one out late in what should be an ugly game.

Pick: Jets 17, Browns 16


Carolina (3-1) at Detroit (3-1) 

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Panthers are playing a second straight road game after upsetting the Patriots last week at Foxborough. The 3-1 Lions have played well on defense this year, which I think will help them contain Cam Newton. The Lions will go to 4-1 behind their defense.

Pick: Lions 20, Panthers 17


San Francisco (0-4) at Indianapolis (1-3)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Here you have one 0-4 team playing at a 1-3 team with both teams playing for next year already. The 49ers are playing consecutive road games, but their defense is improving. I think this is one where they can get an upset on the road by limiting Jacoby Brissett.

Pick: 49ers 20, Colts 17


Tennessee (2-2) at Miami (1-2) 

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Titans are almost certainly going to be without quarterback Marcus Mariota in this one as he battles a hamstring injury. That means Matt Cassel will start. The Dolphins have been awful on offense, but this is their home opener. I think they get it going against a Titans defense that has struggled.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Titans 17


L.A. Chargers (0-4) at N.Y. Giants (0-4) 

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is surprisingly another dog game of the week. Both teams are 0-4 and basically out of the playoff race. Being that this is a long road trip for a bad team right now, I will go with the Giants at home. Since it's the Chargers, it will be close. They always are with that team. Eli Manning pulls it out late.

Pick: Giants 21, Chargers 20


Arizona (2-2) at Philadelphia (3-1)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Eagles are riding high at 3-1, while the Cardinals are 2-2 with two close victories. The Philadelphia pass rush is a major mismatch for the Cardinals offensive line. They get all over Carson Palmer.

Pick: Eagles 27, Cardinals 17


Jacksonville (2-2) at Pittsburgh (3-1)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Jaguars are playing consecutive road games outside the division, which is tough. They don't throw the ball well enough to win these types of games. The Steelers got Le'Veon Bell going against the Ravens and that will continue. Steelers take it.

Pick: Steelers 30, Jaguars 17


Seattle (2-2) at L.A. Rams (3-1)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is an enormous game in the division. The Rams are 3-1 and playing good on offense, while the Seahawks are 2-2 and come in with that heralded defense that hasn't played up to expectations. This is always a close game, and it will be here. Seahawks win a close one.

Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 21


Baltimore (2-2) at Oakland (2-2)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)  

The Ravens are a disaster on offense, but Oakland hasn't been good on that side of the ball either the past two weeks. EJ Manuel will start at quarterback for Derek Carr, who has an injured back. That will make it even tougher to get going. At home after two road losses, the Raiders will still take it out on the Ravens -- even with Manuel at quarterback.

Pick: Raiders 23, Ravens 13


Green Bay (3-1) at Dallas (2-2)

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) 

The Cowboys lost to the Rams at home last week, which showed their defensive flaws. That's not a good thing against Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay has fought through a bunch of injuries, but should get a lot of guys back for this one. They get it done on the road.

Pick: Packers 30, Cowboys 24


Kansas City (4-0) at Houston (2-2)

8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Chiefs are riding high as the last undefeated team in the league, but they face a tough test here on a short week. The Texans have emerged as a real AFC threat with Deshaun Watson playing well. But I think the Chiefs will go into Texas and remain undefeated.

Pick: Chiefs 17, Texans 14


Minnesota (2-2) at Chicago (1-3)

8:30 p.m. ET, (Monday, ESPN)

The Vikings have been hit bad by the injury bug, and now will be without Dalvin Cook after he suffered a torn ACL last week. The Bears will give rookie Mitch Trubisky his first start, which won't be easy against a good Vikings defense. This will be close, but Minnesota will pull out a close one.

Pick: Vikings 20, Bears 17