October football means separation time in the NFL.
It also means it's time to pick it up with my weekly picks. After the first month of the season, the quarter record isn't great. I am 37-25-1 straight up and 30-32-1 against the spread.
Being under .500 against the spread simply isn't good enough. Being 12 games over .500 straight up isn't either.
I like the card this week. So let's hope the first weekend of October is good for me.
It usually is since it's my birthday weekend.
So it's happy birthday to me with a nice present on the way – a winning week.
Will Brinson, Pete Prisco and R.J. White break down all of this week's games with their picks, parlays and best bets on Friday's Pick Six Podcast. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe:
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams just haven't looked the same on offense this season. But I think this is the game they get it going. They will feed Todd Gurley early to get the running game on track and get the play-action going. The Rams defense was terrible last week, but it will bounce back here against Russell Wilson.
Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 23
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Barring a tie, one of these two will win for the first time. Both have major issues, especially on the offensive lines. But I think Andy Dalton will get it going here. It won't be easy, but the Bengals get their first victory.
Pick: Bengals 27, Cardinals 20
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5)
Both of these teams are coming off bad home losses. The Falcons are reeling right now on defense, so look for a big game from Deshaun Watson. I think he lights them up as the Texans get a high-scoring victory.
Pick: Texans 37, Falcons 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
This is a big division game for both teams. The Saints have won two straight with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, thanks mainly to the defense. That unit faces a tough challenge in the Tampa Bay offense. James Winston is playing well, and I think he continues that here. This will be tight.
Pick: Saints 23, Bucs 21
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Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at New York Giants
When does the Minnesota passing game get with the times? How about right here? The Giants have issues on defense and that will show up for Kirk Cousins and gang. Daniel Jones will face his biggest defensive challenge here in the Vikings, and I think that will be too much. Minnesota takes it.
Pick: Vikings 27, Giants 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers
This will be Gardner Minshew against Kyle Allen at quarterback. Both are playing outstanding football, but will face tough defenses. The Jaguars are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough, but I think Minshew will come up big again.
Pick: Jaguars 21, Panthers 17
Chicago Bears (-5) at Oakland Raiders (London)
This will be Chase Daniel starting at quarterback for the injured Mitch Trubisky. That might not be a bad thing. The Raiders are coming off a nice victory against the Colts, but this is a big time step up for their offense against the Bears defense. Bears will shut down Derek Carr.
Pick: Bears 21, Raiders 13
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
It looks like it will be Luke Falk at quarterback for the Jets again with Sam Darnold still battling mono. That's not a good thing. The Eagles seemed to right things against the Packers and that will carry over here. Eagles take it.
Pick: Eagles 30, Jets 14
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
The Ravens are coming off a bad loss to the Browns and their defense is a major issue right now. The Steelers were better on both sides of the ball against the Bengals Monday night, but this a big step up in competition. Is Mason Rudolph up to the challenge? I think he is. Steelers get back in the division race.
Pick: Steelers 26, Ravens 20
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Tennessee Titans
The Bills could be and probably will be without starting quarterback Josh Allen because of concussion issues. That means Matt Barkley will be the starter here. The Titans are coming off an impressive road victory over Atlanta, but this will be a tough challenge for Marcus Mariota. Look for a tight, low-scoring game with the Titans taking it.
Pick: Titans 19, Bills 17
New England Patriots (-15.5) at Washington Redskins
Who starts at quarterback for the Ravens? Does it matter? The Patriots are playing great defense and it will show up again here. This will be ugly as the Pats offense gets rolling again after a bad game against the Bills.
Pick: Pats 31, Redskins 13
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
The Broncos will essentially be playing to save their season here after the 0-4 start. The Chargers have to be thrilled with their 2-2 start considering all the injuries they've had. The Broncos are limited on offense, which shows up in this one. Chargers get a good game from Philip Rivers.
Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 14
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
This is one of the better games of the week, with both teams coming off their first loss. The Packers defense took a plummet last week, while the Dallas offense did as well. So which one gets back on track? I think it's the Dallas offense, but it will be a close one.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Packers 23
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Chiefs looked beatable last week against the Lions, but now back home in Arrowhead I expect the offense to roll again. The Colts suffered a bad home loss last week to the Raiders, and this will be a tough one to try and get back on track. They won't. Patrick Mahomes will get back to throwing touchdown passes.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Colts 24
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The 49ers, one of the last unbeaten teams, are coming off their bye, so they will be rested. The Browns are playing consecutive road games, which is tough. They seemed to find their offense last week, but the 49ers will get the better of that unit here. The 49ers stay undefeated.
Pick: 49ers 23, Browns 17