I want to hide my face in shame.
That's how bad my picks were last week. It's almost impossible to be as bad as I was, but I managed as bad a week as I've ever had picking games – both straight up and against the spread.
How does somebody go 4-10 straight up and 3-11 against the spread in one week?
That is baby-diaper-smell bad.
Look at the bright side: I'm due.
This week, I vow to be much better. How about flipping those numbers? I will take that.
For now, though, it's time for that walk of shame.
Loser. Loser. Loser.
I have no comeback for that.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Who is this Chiefs team? They just haven't looked right in losing the past two weeks. The defense is terrible. Denver's defense is not. But I think this is the game Patrick Mahomes gets back on track. Chiefs win a big AFC West game.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
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Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are playing for their season here, while the Rams, who just traded for Jalen Ramsey, are trying to end a three-game losing streak. Atlanta has been outstanding on offense, but terrible on defense. The Rams have struggled on offense, but this might be the week they get going. Look for a high-scoring game, but I think Atlanta will find a way to win it.
Pick: Falcons 33, Rams 27
The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough break it all down on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and subscribe here for daily NFL goodness.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-17)
The Bills are coming off their bye, so they will be rested. Their defense has been outstanding and Miami has offensive limitations. That's a bad combination. This will be a game for the Buffalo offense to come alive. Josh Allen has a good day.
Pick: Bills 31, Dolphins 13
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Jaguars didn't look good on offense last week, but that should change here. The Bengals have had defensive issues this season, which should mean Gardner Minshew gets back on track after a bad game last week. This will be close, but the Jaguars will win a tough road game.
Pick: Jaguars 28, Bengals 23
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (PK)
The Lions are coming off a tough loss against the Packers and will be playing on a short week. The Vikings, and especially Kirk Cousins, were impressive last week. But I don't think that carries over here. I think the Lions being back home helps get them back on track.
Pick: Lions 26, Vikings 21
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Raiders are coming off a bye, while the Packers are playing on a short week. The Packers are also banged up. Even so, I think Green Bay will find a way to win this one behind the defense. Packers take another close one.
Pick: Packers 24, Raiders 21
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
This is for first place in the division race. The Colts are coming off a bye, while the Texans are playing consecutive road games. That's a big advantage for the Colts. Deshaun Watson is playing at an MVP level, but I think the Colts will control the ball with the run game to keep him on the bench. Colts win it.
Pick: Colts 21, Texans 17
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-2.5)
The Giants are getting healthy on offense and are expected to have Saquon Barkley back. The Cardinals have found their way on offense after a slow start. I think this will be a high-scoring game with Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray both having big days. It will be fun.
Pick: Giants 35, Cardinals 30
San Francisco 49ers (-10) at Washington Redskins
The 49ers are riding high, but this is a long trip for an early game off a big win against a below-average team. Those can be tricky. I think the Redskins will hang around here after winning last week for the first time. It won't be pretty, but the 49ers will win a close one.
Pick: 49ers 21, Redskins 20
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
These are two teams with major issues coming into this one. The Chargers are crippled by injuries, while the Titans are making a quarterback change. This will likely be a low-scoring game, with the Chargers finding a way to win it late.
Pick: Chargers 20, Titans 16
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Bears are coming off a bye and they have to hope they found something positive while on it. They haven't been as dominant on defense and the offense has issues. The Saints are playing consecutive road games, but they have been good on defense. That will play out here. It's a close game, but the Saints will win it.
Pick: Saints 16, Bears 13
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
This should be fun with Lamar Jackson going against Russell Wilson. Both teams have been defensive-oriented in their recent pasts, but these two are now about the offenses. This should be a fun offensive shootout, but Wilson will get the best of it as he continues his MVP season.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Ravens 27
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
These two teams are tied for first place, but they sure haven't looked like it at times this season. The Cowboys have lost three straight after a fast start. The Eagles' defense is a disaster right now. Dallas will come alive on offense here and get a big-time division victory.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Eagles 21
New England Patriots (-9.5) at New York Jets
The Jets got their first victory last week when Sam Darnold returned to give them life. But this is a major challenge against the dominant Patriots defense. The Jets will hang around in this one, though, because the New England offense isn't clicking. Pats win it, but it's close.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 20