Pete Prisco's Week 1 NFL picks: Jaguars win big in New York and more best bets

Here we go again, my third attempt to try and win the SuperContest at the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook as part of Team OddsShark.

The first two haven't gone so well. But my thinking is the third time will be the charm. I can sense it.

Each week here in this space, I will post my five best bets, the five games I will enter into the contest. You can watch my progress as I attempt to beat the past two years, and, who knows, maybe even win the thing.

OK, so that's dreaming. But I intend to finish above .500 -- way above -- this season. Let's start it off with a 5-0 mark in Week 1 ...

All right, I will take 4-1. Here are this week's picks:

Ravens -7.5 vs. Bills

This is a tough way for Nathan Peterman to open the season, on the road against an improved defense. This won't be pretty. The Ravens are better on offense as well, so look for Joe Flacco to have a big day throwing it. The Ravens win it easily.

So who should you back in Week 1 of the NFL season? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulationsall from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons. 

Jaguars -3 at Giants

As improved as the Giants offense might be, I still think the offensive line has some major issues. That will show up in a big way against a dominant Jaguars front. Eli Manning will be in for a long day. On the other side, the Jaguars will run Leonard Fournette a lot for a big day to control the clock with some timely throws down the field. Jacksonville wins big.

Dolphins +1.5 vs. Titans

The Dolphins are a better team than a year ago, while I am not sure the Titans are. It's also tough to open on the road, which is another reason I like the Dolphins here. I do have some concern about Miami's run defense, but I think it's good enough to hold Derrick Henry in check. The Dolphins will win a close one, so give me the points.

Cardinals -1 vs. Redskins

The Redskins are making a long trip to open the season with a new quarterback in Alex Smith. Jay Gruden hasn't won a season opener with the Redskins, and I think that shows up again. The Cardinals are better than most think, and David Johnson will have a big day. Arizona wins it.

Lions -6.5 vs. Jets

This is a tough way for Sam Darnold to open the season with a road Monday night game. The Jets have other issues as well, like where the run game comes from and who rushes the passer. The Lions have a new coach in Matt Patricia, but they have the same offense led by Jim Bob Cooter. Look for Matt Stafford to light up the Jets. It's a blowout. 

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Pete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an... Full Bio

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