Pete Prisco's Week 5 NFL Picks: Jaguars hand Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes first loss

The quarter point of the NFL season has arrived, and I am over .500 with my picks against the spread.

That's the good news. The bad news is I am just one game over.

After a 7-7-1 mark last week, I am now 31-30-2 for the year. I would be a lot better if I learned to stay away from picking against the Kansas City Chiefs -- which their fans remind me of every week.

So guess what? I am picking against them again this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars will go into Arrowhead and give the Chiefs their first loss of the season and stake a claim as the AFC's best team.

The Jaguars defense hasn't played its best yet, and it is ranked first in points allowed and yards. It's almost as if the Jags have been bored.

They won't be Sunday with Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the field. So look for the Jaguars to take the game outright.

If they don't, the Chiefs fans will certainly wish that I would choke on one of those unreal ribs from Jack Stack Barbecue.

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Indianapolis at New England

Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network, Fox)
Line: Patriots -10

This game has the look of a blowout to me. The Colts are banged up in the secondary and Tom Brady playing in prime time will show he's still one of the best. Andrew Luck won't be able to keep up.

Pick: Patriots 33, Colts 20

Tennessee at Buffalo

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Titans -3.5

This looks like a be-careful game for the Titans. They are coming off two tough, physical games, both victories, and now must go on the road to face a team they should beat. I think they win it, but this will be close.

Pick: Titans 17, Bills 16

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Steelers -3

This will be a shootout. Both defenses have major issues and both quarterbacks have the ability to light them up. I think we see that here. The air will be full of touchdowns passes. Enjoy this one. Falcons win a close shootout.

Pick: Falcons 37, Steelers 34

Denver at New York Jets

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Jets -1

This is a long road trip on a short week for the Broncos. That's always a challenge. They need Case Keenum to play better at quarterback. The Jets looked bad last week against the Jaguars, but back home they bounce back to play well. They win it in what might be considered an upset by some.

Pick: Jets 21, Broncos 20

Jacksonville at Kansas City

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Chiefs -3

This is the game of the week. Watching Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the Jaguars defense will be a treat. Mahomes hasn't thrown a pick this season and the Jaguars defensive backs don't have one. That changes here. Watch for T.J. Yeldon to have a big day running it for the Jaguars. Jacksonville takes it.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Chiefs 17

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Green Bay at Detroit

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox) 
Line: Packers -1

Aaron Rodgers was not happy about the offense last week, so look for that to change here. He will light up the Lions. But I think Matt Stafford, who has had success against the Packers in the past, will also get his yards. This will be fun to watch, but Rodgers will get the best of it.

Pick: Packers 31, Lions 23

Baltimore at Cleveland

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Ravens -3

The Ravens are playing consecutive road games and are coming off an emotional victory over the Steelers. That can be draining. That's why this game will be close. But I think the way the Ravens defense is playing will make for tough going for Baker Mayfield. Ravens win it.

Pick: Ravens 21, Browns 16

New York Giants at Carolina

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Panthers -7

The Panthers are coming off a bye, while the Giants are coming off a loss to the Saints. The Giants offense struggled against a bad Saints defense in that one, so what's to think they get it going here? This will be a low-scoring game won by the Panthers behind the running of Christian McCaffrey.

Pick: Panthers 20, Giants 13

Miami at Cincinnati

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Bengals -6.5

The Dolphins are playing consecutive road games and are banged up. The Bengals have been impressive on offense, but the defense continues to struggle. That could help Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins keep this one close. Bengals win it, but it's closer than expected.

Pick: Bengals 24, Dolphins 21

Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers

Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Chargers -4.5

The Raiders won for the first time this season last week against Cleveland, but the defense remains a problem area. That's good news for Philip Rivers. The Chargers defense hasn't been that good either, so expect a lot of points. Chargers will win a high-scoring game.

Pick: Chargers 33, Raiders 27

Arizona at San Francisco

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: 49ers -4.5

Josh Rosen will be making his first NFL road start for the Cardinals in this one. He was solid last week in his first start against the Seahawks, but playing on the road is a challenge. The 49ers did some good things against the Chargers last week, and I think that carries over. 49ers win the game behind C.J. Beathard.

Pick: 49ers 23, Cardinals 17

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Eagles -3

This rematch of last January's NFC Title game, which was won in a blowout by the Eagles, features two teams that haven't looked that good this season. The Eagles lost last week at Tennessee, while the Vikings are coming off a blowout loss against the Rams. The Vikings don't look right on defense and that will show up in this one. Eagles take it. 

Pick: Eagles 27, Vikings 20

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Rams -7

The Rams are flying high on offense, and will be rested after playing last Thursday. The Seahawks are coming off a solid defensive game last week against Arizona, but this is a much tougher challenge. Seattle plays much better at home, and I think that will help them keep this one closer than expected. Rams take it, but it's tight.

Pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 24

Dallas at Houston

Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Line: Texans -3

The Cowboys got back to their strength on offense last week, which is running Ezekiel Elliott. They will need to do that here, but the Texans are fourth in rushing yards per attempt against. That will make for tough going for the Dallas offense. The Texans have line issues up front on offense, which could make it tough for Deshaun Watson. I think the Texans will win a low-scoring game.

Pick: Texans 20, Cowboys 14

Washington at New Orleans

Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Line: Saints -6.5

Drew Brees can set the all-time record for passing yards in a career in this one. That brings a little extra to the game, but it's also a big game. Washington is coming off a bye, why the Saints are back home after two road losses. The Redskins have played solid defense this season and they will here to keep it close.

Pick: Saints 23, Redskins 20

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Pete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an... Full Bio

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