Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens odds: Picks from expert who's 45-20 on NFL totals

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on "Sunday Night Football." The Steelers are favored by 4.5 in this AFC North grudge match, down 2.5 from where the line opened. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43, down one from the opener.

This is coach John Harbaugh's 20th regular season game against the Steelers.

Before you bet on a "Sunday Night Football" game with two familiar foes and plenty of line movement, you'll want to hear what Mike Tierney has to say.

On "Monday Night Football" between the Steelers and Bengals this past week, Tierney told SportsLine readers to go Under 43.5, pointing out that only seven of the 24 meetings between teams coached by Mike Tomlin and Marvin Lewis had cleared that total. The result: The Under cashed, even with a last-second field goal.

And that wasn't some lucky guess. Tierney has been crushing the books on these picks for two years now, going an astonishing 45-20 on NFL Over-Unders since the start of last season. Those who have followed his picks have seen massive returns.

Now, Tierney has analyzed every matchup, every trend, and every angle for "Sunday Night Football" between the Steelers and Ravens and locked in his Over-Under pick. He's only sharing it over at SportsLine.

Tierney knows that when the Steelers and Ravens met in Week 4, Pittsburgh won 26-9 in a low-scoring game that would have easily stayed below Sunday's total.

In that game, Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns and Baltimore didn't even get on the scoreboard until after halftime.

Several key players will be out for both sides this week, potentially disrupting game flow. Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who scored in the first meeting, is suspended. Baltimore cornerback Jimmy Smith (Achilles, suspension) and linebacker Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh's leading tackler (back), will be sidelined as well.

And Ravens QB Joe Flacco has struggled. He's topped 200 yards just twice in his last seven games. Baltimore's ground game has generated one 100-yard rusher the entire season (Alex Collins, Week 8).

But just because the first meeting was low-scoring doesn't mean the Under hits again on "Sunday Night Football," especially with a low total of 43.5.

The Steelers have scored 93 points in their past three games, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throwing for at least 290 yards in each. Wide receiver Antonio Brown has topped 100 yards in three straight, scoring six touchdowns over that span.

SportsLine's advanced computer model is calling for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns for Roethlisberger on "Sunday Night Football," with Brown easily clearing 100 yards and a score. And look for Bell to generate 130 yards from scrimmage and find the end zone.

Meanwhile, Baltimore just popped 44 points on the Lions and scored 23 in each of the previous two games. Flacco had a season-high 269 yards passing against Detroit, with two touchdowns. And against the Dolphins in primetime in Week 8, the Ravens showed up big and scored 40 points.

Tierney is leaning toward the Ravens covering the spread, but what about the Over-Under, which he's made his name picking?

He knows there's critical data you're not even thinking about that determines whether Ravens vs. Steelers on "Sunday Night Football" goes Over or Under.

So which side of the total should you back in Ravens-Steelers on Sunday night? Visit SportsLine now to see what critical data sends Ravens-Steelers Over or Under, all from the expert who's 45-20 on NFL totals picks since the start of last season, and find out.

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