Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers: Picks from expert who's 13-2 on Packers' picks

The surging Pittsburgh Steelers host the reeling Green Bay Packers on "Sunday Night Football" at Heinz Field. The Steelers are two-touchdown favorites, down a half-point from an open of 14.5.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, stands at 43.5, up two points from where it opened.

Before you make any bets on Packers-Steelers, you'll want to hear what SportsLine Stat Geek R.J. White has to say.

Last Sunday, when the Pack hosted Baltimore as two-point underdogs, White told readers the rested Ravens "would easily contain Brett Hundley, who won't have his top two RBs, and get the win." The result: Ravens 23, Packers 0. Anyone who followed his advice didn't even break a sweat.

Strikingly, it improved his record to 13-2 in his past 15 picks on Packers games, a crazy 87 percent win rate!

White knows the Steelers have been double-digit favorites twice this season. Both times, Pittsburgh won but failed to cover. However, those two games were on the road, whereas "Sunday Night Football" emanates from the Steel City.

Meanwhile, the Packers won in a tough spot at Chicago two weeks ago (where the Steelers lost in overtime earlier this season), and wide receiver Davante Adams has turned it on with over 210 receiving yards the past two weeks.

Green Bay is 11th defensively against the run, allowing 105.7 yards per game. And Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell has been held under 100 yards rushing the last three weeks and been shut out of the end zone four of the last six games.

But just because the Steelers haven't covered as big favorites doesn't mean they'll falter again on Sunday night.

The Steelers have allowed between 13 and 17 points in each of their past five games, all wins. They're fresh off a 40-17 demolition of the Tennessee Titans in Week 11.

The Packers are far more susceptible to giving up big plays through the air, evidenced by their DVOA splits (23rd against the pass, eighth against the rush) as well as their rankings in net yards per pass attempt (24th) and per rush (eighth).

And Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown nine touchdowns the past four weeks, including a masterful four-TD performance against the Titans last week.

SportsLine's projections say Roethlisberger will continue to roll and throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. WR Antonio Brown is a virtual lock to find the end zone.

White is leaning Under, but he knows there's a critical stat no one is thinking about that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Steelers-Packers. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Packers-Steelers on "Sunday Night Football?" Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side of Packers-Steelers you need to be all over, all from the expert who has nailed his 13 of his last 15 Packers picks, and find out.

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