3.4 percent chance Tebow leads Pats to title

Could Tim Tebow lead the Patriots to a Super Bowl? Theoretically, sure. (USATSI)
Tim Tebow may not have sniffed the field in Thursday's Patriots-Lions preseason game, and who knows if he even makes the final roster. But take solace, Tebow supporters, because if an unforeseen series of events resulted in Tebow having to play quarterback for 16 games, the Pats would still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Okay, the odds aren't great, but they're not zero, which would be the answer reflexively given by most people. fired up the tabulatin' device and ran 50,000 simulations of the 2013 season with Tebow -- not Tom Brady or Ryan Mallett -- under center. The results, via

  • Patriots average 7.6 wins, 8.4 losses, 2nd in AFC East
  • Patriots make the playoffs 39.5 percent of the time winning the Super Bowl 3.4% of the time.
  • Chances of winning the division drop from 56.3% to 24.6%

Team Stats:

  • Tim Tebow: 3,338 pass yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs, 714 rush yards, 5 rush TDs
  •  Stevan Ridley: 1,045 rush yards, 9 rush TDs, 60 rec yards
  •  Danny Amendola: 687 rec yards, 4 TDs
  • Rob Gronkowski: 673 rec yards, 4 TDs

So that's not that bad … until you see what expects the Pats to do with Brady in the lineup.

  • Patriots average 9.8 wins, 6.2 losses, 1st in AFC East
  • Patriots make the playoffs 78.6 percent of the time winning the Super Bowl 8.9% of the time.

Team Stats:

  • Tom Brady: 4,473 yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs
  • Steven Ridley: 1,216 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 80 rec yards
  • Danny Amendola: 915 rec yards, 8 TDs
  • Rob Gronkowski: 916 rec yards, 8 TDs

If you're wondering: When Matt Cassel replaced Brady in 2008, Cassel was a run-first quarterback. In 16 games (15 starts), he threw for 3,693 yards (63.4 completion percentage), 21 TDs and 11 INTs. The Patriots won 11 games but missed the playoffs.

CBS Sports Writer

Ryan Wilson has been an NFL writer for CBS Sports since June 2011, and he's covered five Super Bowls in that time. Ryan previously worked at AOL's FanHouse from start to finish, and Football Outsiders... Full Bio

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