I can't wait to get to October NFL games.
Why? My picks were terrible in September -- as many of you have let me know. Maybe it's just a case of overanalyzing things.
So this week, I made it simple. I went with my instincts. I hope I can turn it around. I like to say the NFL season really gets rolling in October, then contenders emerge in November and pretenders fade off in December.
I am ready to get rolling in October.
See ya, September games. You were nasty to me, so it's time to turn it around.
The Dolphins got their first victory against the Browns, but it wasn't pretty. They'll take it. This is a tough turnaround against a good team. That's never easy. Bengals coming off a tough home loss will bounce back here.
Pick: Bengals 30, Dolphins 17
The Jaguars are off to a rough start, but they still have six games in the division. This is the first. It's a home game for them, but it's also in London. But they aren't playing well. The Colts got their first victory, and they will get the second one here as Andrew Luck plays big.
Pick: Colts 31, Jaguars 24
The Texans will have 10 days between games before they kick this one off, and that matters. The Titans will bring their run-heavy offense into this game, and the Texans will limit it. They will get back on track with a dominant defensive performance.
Pick: Texans 24, Titans 13
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
The Redskins got a much-needed victory over the Giants on Sunday, and now get a bad Browns team playing a second straight road game. That's always tough, but injuries make it even tougher. The Redskins light them up.
Pick: Redskins 31, Browns 17
This is a long trip for the Seahawks, and Russell Wilson is battling a knee injury. How healthy will he be against a good Jets front? The interesting battle will be to see if Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick can battle back against a good Seattle defense. I think he does. Jets take it.
Pick: Jets 21, Seahawks 17
The Bills got their first victory against the Cardinals, and looked good doing it. This will be a lot tougher. The Patriots will likely have Jimmy Garoppolo back for this one. He was on fire last time out against Miami, and will do so again here. Patriots continue to roll.
Pick: Patriots 27, Bills 17
This is an early season big game for both teams. The Falcons lead the division at 2-1, and beat the Panthers here last season. This will be an offensive shootout. I think the home crowd helps in a big way. Matt Ryan wins the battle with Cam Newton.
Pick: Falcons 33, Panthers 30
This is a second consecutive road game for the Raiders across the country. That's always tough to do. The Ravens are home for the first time since the opener. Oakland's defense played better last week, but Baltimore will find a way with a few Joe Flacco throws down the field.
Pick: Ravens 24, Raiders 17
The Bears have a ton of injuries and they're 0-3. That's not a good start. Plus, Jay Cutler might be out for this one. The Lions got ambushed in Green Bay, and then battled back. This one will be a lot easier.
Pick: Lions 28, Bears 20
The Broncos are playing consecutive road games after winning at Cincinnati. There is a chance for a letdown, but I think the Broncos are much better than the Bucs. They will find a way to win it in the second half to stay undefeated. Stop the Trevor Siemian train.
Pick: Broncos 28, Bucs 21
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are almost in an early must-win situation. Carson Palmer has to get it going, but the Rams defense is really good. It won't be easy. The Rams won at Arizona last year, but not this season. The Cardinals get back on track.
Pick: Cardinals 26, Rams 13
The Saints have to travel west on a short week after a Monday night game. That's brutal. They also have a defense that is undermanned and Philip Rivers will carve them to shreds. They can't stop anybody, which puts way too much pressure on the offense to keep up.
Pick: Chargers 33, Saints 23
The 49ers are 1-2 and have looked awful at times on offense. The Cowboys have played well on offense with Dak Prescott, but now there are three games of tape on him. That can matter. Look for the 49ers to keep it close.
Pick: Cowboys 21, 49ers 20
The Steelers are coming off a bad road loss at Philadelphia. The offense was stymied, but they get Le'Veon Bell back here. The Chiefs picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times Sunday. Memo to Chiefs: Ben Roethlisberger isn't Fitzpatrick. Steelers get back on track.
Pick: Steelers 30, Chiefs 23
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
This is a tough game for the Giants as they face that Minnesota defense. The Giants haven't faced a defense that good this season. The Vikings have given up 16 points or less in eight straight games. Make it nine.
Pick: Vikings 23, Giants 16