Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter.
I'd like to start things off here by announcing that we'll be taking a one day break from all the Tom Brady returning to New England hype to talk about the game that's actually the best one on the Week 4 schedule: JAGUARS AT BENGALS.
OK, so no one actually thinks tonight's game is the best one on the Week 4 schedule, but you should still be excited for it. For one, you'll get to see Joe Burrow going up against Trevor Lawrence, marking just the second time in NFL history that the past two No. 1 overall picks have gone head-to-head (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray faced each other in 2019). This will also mark the first time that two quarterbacks who have both won a college national title will square off in the NFL since 2009, which means this game will obviously be more exciting than a college national title game.
Anyway, we'll be covering the Jaguars-Bengals game extensively in today's newsletter. We'll also be looking at how the Raiders made history with their 3-0 start and telling you everything you need to know about the Bears' possible move out of downtown Chicago. We have a lot to get to, so let's get to the rundown.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Jaguars-Bengals betting preview
If you're planning on betting any money on tonight's game, then you're going to want to make sure to listen to today's episode of the podcast before you place any bets. For today's show, Will Brinson brought on CBSSports.com writer Tyler Sullivan, and the two went into full gambling mode.
Here are several props they like for the game:
- Joe Mixon OVER 20.5 rushing attempts (-110). Mixon is averaging 22.3 attempts per game this season, so this one feels like a good bet, especially since if the Bengals have the lead in the second half (which is what we're all expecting to happen), then they'll likely try to keep the clock running by giving the ball to Mixon.
- Tyler Boyd OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-115). The Jaguars are one of only five teams in the NFL surrendering more than 300 yards passing per game, and with Tee Higgins out, that should open the door for Boyd to have a big game.
- Trevor Lawrence OVER 36.5 pass attempts (-130). The Jaguars are always playing from behind and if you're playing from behind, that usually means you're throwing the ball. Lawrence has thrown at least 33 passes in each game this season and he's averaging 39.3 pass attempts per game on the year.
For more props and their actual prediction for tonight's game, be sure to click here so you can listen to today's episode. If you'd rather watch today's show, you can now do that on YouTube!
2. Thursday night preview: Prepping you for Jaguars at Bengals
On paper, this might not be the sexiest Thursday night matchup of the season, but it's definitely worth watching. For one, you could witness history: If the Jaguars lose, that will be their 19th straight loss, which would tie the 2007-08 Lions for the second-longest losing streak in the Super Bowl era. Also, if the Jaguars lose, that means the Bengals will have won a PRIMETIME game, which is something most people alive have never witnessed. (They're 5-15 in their past 20 night games.)
My good buddy Jared Dubin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out:
- Why the Jaguars can win: The Jaguars offense has gotten off to an ugly start this season, but there's a chance they could have a big night and that's mostly because the Bengals are banged up in the secondary. Not only has Bengals safety Jessie Bates already been ruled out of the game, but starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (groin) has been listed as doubtful. If he's also out, that could open the door for Trevor Lawrence to have a big game, but for that to happen, the Jaguars offensive line will have to give him time to throw, which is something they haven't been able to do all season.
- Why Bengals can win: The Jaguars are surrendering an average of 302.3 passing yards per game this season, which means the Bengals should be able to move the ball through the air. Although Cincinnati won't have Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow will have plenty of other weapons at his disposal in guys like Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate. One problem for the Jags is that they can't go all-in to stop the pass because the Bengals also have the NFL's second-leading rusher in Joe Mixon. The Bengals should be able to pile up points on Jacksonville.
You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.
Dubin's pick: Bengals 27-17 over Jaguars
My pick: Bengals 31-17 over Jaguars
We're clearly pretty confident that the Jags are only going to score 17 points.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview.
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Trevor Lawrence OVER 22.5 completions (+105): "The Bengals defense is allowing 68.2% of passes thrown against it to be completed and is averaging 30 completions allowed per game through the first three weeks. With the Jaguars expected to be trailing, that should only mean more pass attempts for Lawrence."
- ONE PROP I LIKE: First scoring play of the game: Bengals TD (+135): The Jaguars have had some trouble scoring early this season -- they only have seven first-quarter points all year -- so it seems almost a given that the Bengals are going to score first. It's just matter if you want to bet on Cincinnati scoring a TD or a field goal. At +320, the field goal has better value, and I won't be surprised if it happens, but I'm going TD. (You could also bet both and win money as long as the Jags don't score first.)
- Long shot prop I'm thinking about betting: Parlay of Bengals to win combined with Ja'Marr Chase and Marvin Jones both to score a touchdown (+600 if all three hit). Chase has scored a TD in every Bengals game this season, and if you combine that with the fact that Jones has scored in two out of three games for Jacksonville, you have to feel pretty good about this prop's chances of hitting. At +600 -- you would win $60 on a $10 bet -- I think this one might be worth taking a small flyer on.
You can check out Sullivan's full gambling preview by clicking here.
3. Raiders make history with undefeated start
There are currently five undefeated teams in the NFL right now, but only one of them made history by starting 3-0: the Las Vegas Raiders.
Here's a few fascinating nuggets from the Raiders' first 3-0 start since 2002:
- Raiders make history. With wins over the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins, the Raiders became the first NFL team to start a season 3-0 with each of their wins coming against a team that won 10 or more games the previous year.
- Derek Carr on a torrid pace. The Raiders QB has thrown for 1,203 yards through three weeks, which is the fourth-highest passing total in NFL history through three games, trailing only Tom Brady (1,327 in 2011 with the Patriots), Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,230 in 2018 with the Buccaneers) and Kurt Warner (1,221 in 2000 with the Rams).
- Raiders living on the edge. The Raiders are just the fourth team in NFL history to play two overtime games in the first three weeks of the season. The good news for the Raiders is that the other three teams that pulled that off -- the 1994 Lions, 1995 Falcons and 1995 Chiefs -- all ended up making the playoffs.
- How a 3-0 season usually ends for Las Vegas. The Raiders have gone to the playoffs 11 of the 12 times that they've started 3-0. In nine of those 12 seasons, they made it all the way to the AFC title game, while four of the 3-0 seasons ended with a trip to the Super Bowl, including two years where the Raiders won it all.
If you see a Raiders fan this weekend and they seem irrationally excited, this is why. The team is off to their best start in 18 years.
4. LeSean McCoy retiring after 12 NFL seasons
LeSean McCoy has decided to leave while he's on top. After 12 NFL seasons, the veteran running back has made the decision to retire, but he won't be riding off to the sunset empty-handed. McCoy played for the Chiefs in 2019 and the Buccaneers in 2020, which means he'll be retiring as a two-time Super Bowl winner.
McCoy will officially be announcing his retirement Friday after signing a one-day contract with the Eagles. McCoy was drafted by the Eagles in 2009 and spent six seasons with them.
Here's what the six-time Pro Bowler accomplished during his career:
- McCoy retires as a top-25 career rusher. The 33-year-old will end his career with 11,102 rushing yards, which is the 22nd most of all-time. Of the 21 running backs ahead of him on the list, 16 are in the Hall of Fame.
- He rewrote the Eagles' record book. McCoy will retire as the Eagles' all-time rushing leader with 6,792 yards. He's also second in rushing attempts (1,461), third in rushing touchdowns (44), and third in yards per carry (4.7).
- He earned major accolades. Not only was McCoy voted to the Pro Bowl a total of six times, but he also was voted on to the NFL's all-decade team for the 2010s. He led the NFL in rushing back in 2013 with 1,607 yards. He also ranked in the top-6 for rushing yards a total of five times.
- Dominant decade. From 2009 to 2019, McCoy ranked second among all active running backs in both rushing yards (11,071) and rushing touchdowns (73).
- Rare company. McCoy is one of only seven players in NFL history who rushed for more than 11,000 yards AND had 3,800 receiving yards or more. Of the players on that list, the five that were eligible for the Hall of Fame all made it. The other two are Frank Gore and McCoy.
- McCoy on rare list. The running back is one of just four players in NFL history who have won two Super Bowls in a row with their second Super Bowl win coming against the team they played for during their first Super Bowl win. (You can check out more details on that story by clicking here.)
In his prime, McCoy was one of the most electrifying running backs in football. The only question now is whether he did enough to make the Hall of Fame. He definitely seems to think that the answer to that question is yes. Back in April, he said he felt like he had a "good shot." I'm on the fence, but could be talked into it.
5. Bears possibly leaving downtown Chicago: Everything you need to know
The Chicago Bears have been playing at Soldier Field since 1971, but they might not be playing there much longer. As you may or may not have heard about on Wednesday, the Bears entered a purchase agreement to buy the Arlington International Racecourse property, which is a 326-acre chunk of land located in Arlington Heights, Illinois, a suburb that sits roughly 35 miles outside of downtown Chicago.
So does this mean the Bears will soon be leaving Soldier Field?
Here are a few key details on what to expect going forward:
- Bears paid big money for the property. The team is paying nearly $200 million to secure the land ($197.2 million to be exact), and if they're paying that kind of money, you can bet they'd love to build a new stadium there.
- Purchase not expected to be finalized anytime soon. The company that previously owned the property, Churchill Downs, has announced that he sale isn't expected to be finalized until late 2022 or early 2023. This means, even in a best-case scenario, the Bears probably wouldn't start the process of planning a new stadium until a year or two down the road.
- Why the Bears want to leave downtown Chicago. A new stadium would offer amenities that the Bears just can't get at Soldier Field. For one, a new stadium would have a larger capacity. (Soldier Field seats just 61,500, which is the lowest capacity in the NFL.) The Bears could also theoretically build an enclosed stadium -- with a dome or retractable roof -- that would allow the venue to host other major events like the Super Bowl or Final Four. Also, the Bears could make some extra money by putting in a sports betting lounge, which is something the city of Chicago won't allow them to do at Soldier Field.
- Bears have a lease at Soldier Field. The Bears' lease at Soldier Field runs through 2033. If the Bears want to break it before then, it's going to cost serious money. According to the Chicago Tribune, it would cost $84 million to break it in 2026 and then decrease roughly $10 million per year until 2033.
- Bears have to figure out how to pay for a new stadium. If the Bears want to build their own stadium, it's likely going to cost more than $2 billion and it's highly unlikely they're going to get very much public money. This means the Bears are going to have to cough up a lot of money. There had been a report that the team will soon be for sale, and it's possible they could sell to a deep-pocketed buyer who has the means to build a new stadium.
Basically, if the Bears are going to leave downtown Chicago, it likely won't happen until the end of the decade at the earliest with there still being a lot of obstacles in their way. However, it's pretty clear they have one foot out the door at Soldier Field and are very serious about moving.
6. Rapid-fire roundup
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Antonio Brown off the COVID list. After missing Week 3 due to COVID, the Buccaneers receiver will be back on the field this week, which is good news for Tom Brady. Also, let's not forget, this is technically a revenge game for Brown, who played one game with the Patriots in 2019.
- Patriots lose James White for the season. It turns out the running back's hip injury was way worse than originally thought. At first, it appeared White would only miss a few weeks, but now he's going to be out for the rest of the year, which is a devastating loss for the Patriots.
- Giants sign former Titans' first-round pick. The Giants are going to see if they can revive the career of Isaiah Wilson. The offensive lineman, who was selected 29th overall in 2020, played just three snaps for the Titans last season before the team dumped him due to off-the-field issues. Wilson has been signed to the Giants' practice squad.
- Raiders' Gerald McCoy hit with six-game suspension. On the field, this suspension won't have any impact on the Raiders right now because McCoy is on injured reserve. However, it will have a financial impact and that's because it means he won't be paid for the next six weeks.
- Josh Gordon not expected to play this week. According to NFL.com, it's highly unlikely Gordon will be making his Chiefs debut this week, which means if you grabbed him for fantasy purposes, you're going to have to wait until Week 5 at the earliest.
- Deshaun Watson trade rumors heating up. Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported Sunday that the Texans have softened their stance when it comes to a Watson trade. He also added Wednesday that this is a situation you need to "keep your eyes" on. Glazer has a pretty solid track record of sniffing out big stories, so it will be interesting to see if Watson gets dealt in the next few days or weeks. If a trade does happen, the Dolphins and Eagles are definitely the most likely candidates. The trade deadline is Nov. 2 and if a deal doesn't happen by then, the Texans won't be allowed to officially trade him until March.
- Super Bowl LI ring sells for nearly $100,000. A ring from the Patriots' wild win over the Falcons was recently auctioned off by Leland's and ended up going for $92,145. The auction company didn't reveal who was selling the ring, so if the person who bought it is reading, could you please let me know the name engraved on it? I'm kind of curious.
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