Winter has come for NFL coaches. Jeff Fisher was the first to fall, getting canned by the Rams last week. He was followed quickly by Gus Bradley, who lost his job with the Jaguars after their 12th loss of the season.
They won't be alone.
Firing season has officially arrived. Though only two coaches have lost their jobs so far, more firings are on the horizon. So, we decided to rank the 10 best job openings.
To be clear, eight of the 10 teams on the list have not fired their coaches as of Tuesday morning. But to expand our list from two to 10 -- to form an actual, you know, list -- we needed to do a bit of guessing. Eight of the teams below could reasonably fire their coaches. We're not saying they will be fired and we're not saying they should be fired, we're just saying the following jobs could possibly open up.
As for the order of the list, a variety of factors were considered:
- Current talent-level of the roster
- Available NFL Draft picks
- Meddling vs. hands-off owners
- Location, location, location
And let's be honest here, San Diego holds an edge over Cleveland no matter how you spin it.
With that, let's get to the list.
1. The San Diego Chargers
Will the job open up? Maybe.
In October, Mike McCoy was reportedly fighting for his job. But we haven't really heard about his job status since, as the Chargers' possible relocation to Los Angeles has taken over the rumor mill.
But it's worth noting that McCoy's win-loss record in his four years as the Chargers' coach is 27-35. Philip Rivers is nearing his end, so the Chargers can't mess around wasting time. With that being said, the Chargers have endured so many injuries this season, so they might give McCoy a pass.
The pitch: If not for a knack of blowing fourth-quarter leads and an unfortunate trend of their best players landing on injured reserve, the Chargers might've had a say in the AFC wild-card race. But those leads were blown (six in all) and those players were lost (18 landed on injured reserve). And now, with the Chargers at 5-9, there's a chance that McCoy could be on his way out.
This would be an incredible job in the short term. Rivers is still a top-caliber quarterback. Though he leads the league in picks, he's been forced to try to do too much with his injured supporting cast. In addition to Rivers, the Chargers' roster features a young, blossoming tight end in Hunter Henry, an absolute workhorse in Melvin Gordon, and a legit No. 1 receiver in Keenan Allen, who should return from injury.
Defensively, look no further than their rookie pass rusher Joey Bosa, who's notched 7.5 sacks in 10 games. Melvin Ingram, the teams' 27-year-old linebacker, should be garnering Pro Bowl consideration, and the secondary isn't too shabby either (Casey Hayward leads the league in interceptions).
The Chargers are good enough to compete for a playoff spot if they can stay healthy and figure out how to hang onto a lead. A good coach should be able to fix that second part while luck should take care of the injuries.
Plus, San Diego has the beach and some great tacos. And L.A. isn't too bad.
2. The Cincinnati Bengals
Will the job open up? Maybe.
Marvin Lewis did a heck of a job turning around the Bengals franchise, but it's time for a change. Following five straight first-round exits in the postseason, the Bengals are not playoff bound this year.
The pitch. They have a damn good -- and still underrated -- quarterback, Andy Dalton. A.J. Green is also somehow underrated. And so is Tyler Eifert. The Bengals' offense doesn't get the credit it deserves. It struggled mightily this season, but that might have to do with Hue Jackson's departure. Defensively, the Bengals still have some playmakers, like Vontaze Burfict and Geno Atkins.
The Bengals have struggled this season -- evidenced by their 5-8-1 record, but they're not awful. They're 1-5-1 in one-score games. They can bounce back with that offense already in place.
This is the kind of job that a coach takes with realistic playoff expectations.
3. The Buffalo Bills
Will the job open up? Probably.
Rex Ryan is likely done as the Bills' head coach after two incredibly mediocre seasons. It's something that CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora has reported this year and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the same thing Sunday.
Barring a miraculous stretch that ends in the playoffs, Ryan appears to be done in Buffalo.
The pitch: You might be surprised to see the Bills this high on the list, but they're not as bad as most assume. They have a cheap, solid quarterback who has scored 20 touchdowns (14 passing, six rushing) and thrown just six picks. And all of that comes at the cost of $15.9 million next year. I'd happily take Tyrod Taylor for the 20th-highest quarterback cap hit in 2017.
LeSean McCoy is one of the league's best playmakers, ranking fifth in yards from scrimmage and fourth in total touchdowns. Sammy Watkins, a top target when he's healthy, has been hurt all year. That's the offense, which clearly has more pieces than most of the jobs on this list.
Defensively, the Bills are OK. They should re-sign Lorenzo Alexander, who emerged with 11.5 sacks. Marcell Dareus should appear in more games moving forward. And Shaq Lawson, the team's first-round pick, didn't play until late October.
As a team, the Bills are 15th in DVOA -- the highest of any team on this list. The downside? They're situated in the Patriots' division.
And, well, it gets cold in Buffalo.
4. The Indianapolis Colts
Will the job open up?: Maybe.
This would be listed as "yes," but Colts owner Jim Irsay indicated that he's not anticipating making any changes after the season. He really should, as the Colts are once against stumbling through the regular season, blowing a second straight chance of winning the mediocre AFC South. It's bad enough when you let Brock Osweiler quarterback a team to the AFC South lead.
The pitch: Andrew Luck. And T.Y. Hilton. Oh, and Adam Vinatieri. That's pretty much it.
The Colts have one of the league's worst offensive lines, which is ranked third in sacks allowed. They have one of the league's worst defenses, which is ranked 29th in DVOA.
The Colts' roster is bad -- there's no escaping that -- but Luck alone makes the job attractive, especially for offensive-minded coaches.
5. The Chicago Bears
Will the job open up? Probably not.
John Fox hasn't won many games, but not many coaches would with the state of the Bears' roster and the injuries they've dealt with. Instead, he has the Bears competing -- they nearly beat the Packers on Sunday with a third-string quarterback, as an example. I'm guessing Fox gets one more year to prove that he deserves to stick around.
Not many 3-11 teams fight the way the Bears do.
The pitch: No, the Bears don't have a long-term quarterback solution on their roster, but the next coach will likely have the freedom to start new with a rookie quarterback. The Bears are lined up for a top-five pick and could find their solution there. And if they decide to hang onto Jay Cutler for one more year, he's going to be a very affordable option.
Furthermore, they have one of the league's best young running backs on the roster in Jordan Howard, who averages 5.0 yards per carry (he's tied with Ezekiel Elliott). Of course, it's worth noting that Alshon Jeffery might not be around next year, considering he's playing on the franchise tag and has disappointed this year.
But what makes the Bears job so attractive is its defensive tradition and the fact that their defense is already good again. The front-seven, to be specific, is downright scary. Leonard Floyd (seven sacks) deserves Defensive Rookie of the Year love. Pernell McPhee is one of the most efficient pass-rushers in the game. When he's stayed healthy, second-year defensive tackle Eddie Goldman has been incredible. And free-agent newcomer Akiem Hicks is a monster inside, notching seven sacks. Willie Young remains underrated (7.5 sacks).
Meanwhile, behind the line are a pair of damn good inside linebackers. Jerrell Freeman was experiencing one of the best years of all interior linebackers before his suspension and Danny Trevathan completes the solid duo. Their glaring weakness is the secondary, but the Bears will have the picks to take care of that in the draft.
The Bears are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.
6. The Jacksonville Jaguars
Will the job open up? Well, the Jaguars fired Gus Bradley on Sunday after going 2-12. He was, however, allowed to fly back with the team.
The pitch: They have a young defense filled with potential stars like Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. They landed Malik Jackson. They have two receivers who showed that they could be good last year, when Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns combined for 2,431 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Blake Bortles is the reason why the job is this low on the list. Though Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell said Monday that the new coach wouldn't be required to stick with Bortles as the starter, he still sounds like a big Bortles fan.
"I do still believe in Blake very much," Caldwell said. "But the head coach will have a lot of input into who the quarterback will be."
Translation: Caldwell might look for a coach who wants to work with Bortles.
If the Jaguars want to stick with Bortles for another year despite his 51 picks in 44 games, the team's next coach will be forced to work with a quarterback who, simply put, isn't any good. Those kind of forced marriages hardly ever work out.
And it's not like the Jaguars have the tradition to lure a top candidate. They haven't made the playoffs since 2007.
7. The Cleveland Browns
Will the job open up? Probably not.
The Browns haven't won a game with Hue Jackson, but that doesn't matter. They're a bad team with a bad roster. Jackson will get more time to prove he's a capable head coach.
The pitch: They have almost no talent on the roster, but look at those draft picks!
First round: (2) Own pick and Philadelphia's pick.
Second round: (2) Own pick and Tennessee's pick.
Third round: (1) Own pick (The Browns are expected to receive a third-round compensatory pick, which would be sent to New England to complete the trade for Jamie Collins).
Fourth round: (2) Two compensatory picks. (The Browns sent their original fourth round pick to Philadelphia in a 2016 draft-day trade.)
Fifth round: (3) Own pick, a compensatory pick and New England's pick.
Sixth round: (1) Own pick.
Seventh round: No picks. (The Browns sent their original pick to San Francisco in a 2015 trade. They acquired Indianapolis' pick, conditionally, in a 2015 trade, then sent it to Carolina in a 2016 trade.)
The Browns actually committed to a real rebuild. I admire that.
The Browns aren't going to be bad forever. All they need to do is hit on those picks, which is tougher than it sounds, but it's a better position to be in than a middling team with aging stars (see: the Jets).
8. The San Francisco 49ers
Will the job open up? I don't think so.
Yes, people love to hate Chip Kelly, but he's working with a roster devoid of talent. If any job should open up, it should be general manager Trent Baalke's. Chip has indicated that he wants to remain in the NFL. He should get that chance with the 49ers.
The pitch: There's not much here besides Carlos Hyde and a great tradition. The best part of the job is that they're not attached to either of their two awful quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick, and they'll be in a position to use their top pick on a quarterback.
Downsides of the job include ownership. Who wants to work for Jed York?
The biggest perk: The Bay Area has great weather and there's a Red Robin in Santa Clara (bottomless fries!).
Source: I live in the Bay Area.
9. The Los Angeles Rams
Will the job open up? The Rams finally fired Jeff Fisher.
The pitch: The Rams traded away a boatload of picks to grab Jared Goff with the first pick. Yet Goff couldn't beat out Case Keenum until mid November. Their lack of draft picks is a huge negative. After all, how is the front office supposed to fill in talent around Goff -- they have no receivers and no offensive line -- without draft picks?
Furthermore, whoever takes the job will be forced to work with Goff, because there's no way in hell the Rams are going to move on from Goff already. That means the next coach will have to be OK with tying his future to Goff, who's posted a 65.7 passer rating so far. Good luck.
The attractive side of the job is the ability to use Todd Gurley in a non-middle school offense. Aaron Donald is also a stud. The point being, they clearly have more NFL-caliber players than the 49ers. But they're ranked below them because of their lack of draft picks.
Also, I live in the Bay Area, which is better than L.A.
10. The New York Jets
Will the job open up? Maybe. After a 10-win, playoff-less first year, Todd Bowles' second year has been a disaster. No coach would've won with those quarterbacks, but the defense has been bad for a defensive coach's standards.
The pitch: This is not an attractive job because the Jets have a ton of aging stars and they don't appear to be close to winning. Three examples:
- Brandon Marshall, 32 years old, $7.5 million cap hit next year
- Matt Forte, 31 years old, $5 million cap hit next year
- Darrelle Revis, 31 years old, $15.3 million cap hit next year
The Jets are last on this list because they're stuck in a bad place. They kept four quarterbacks this year, but all four quarterbacks are terrible. They have big names on that defense, but none of them have played well. They aren't committed to a rebuild, but they're nowhere near good enough to compete for a playoff spot.
That's the worst place to be in the NFL: stuck between terrible and good.
