The Cowboys did it last year. Washington did it the year before. The Panthers did it in 2013, and the Colts did it in 2012. 

What are we talking about? Going from worst to first in a division. Almost every year, it seems like there's at least one division winner that finished in last place the year before. In fact, it has happened 16 times since the NFL expanded to 32 teams and established eight four-team divisions in 2002, starting with the Chiefs and Panthers in 2003. (There have been 16 worst-to-firsts in 14 seasons, or 1.15 per year.) 

With that in mind, we're here to rank last season's last-place teams by how likely they are to win their division this season. In reverse order of likelihood (No. 8 being the least likely, No. 1 the most likely), we start with the ... 

8. New York Jets

The AFC East surprisingly has seen a team go worst-to-first since the NFL expanded to 32 teams. The 1-15 Miami Dolphins finished fourth in 2007, when the Patriots won the division with a 16-0 record. The following year, Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 and the Dolphins won the division. In every other season from 2003 through '16, the Patriots have come in first place, so there hasn't really been a chance for another team to go worst-to-first. 

The Jets might or might not be the worst team in the NFL in 2017, but the idea of them overtaking the Patriots to win the AFC East is ludicrous on its face. The Pats are the defending Super Bowl champs and finished 2016 with the best record in football. They added even more firepower to their offense this offseason and are a mortal lock to repeat as AFC East champs for the ninth straight season. 

Meanwhile, the Jets are hemorrhaging veterans and probably starting Josh McCown at quarterback. They're not going anywhere special anytime soon. 

7. Cleveland Browns

The Browns avoided the No. 8 seed here only by virtue of not playing in the same division as the invincible Patriots. No AFC North team has gone from worst to first since the AFC North became a thing -- though that is largely due to the fact that the Browns themselves have finished last in the division an incredible 12 times in 15 years, and have never won the division since their return to the NFL in 1999.

Any of the other three teams could conceivably take home the AFC North crown given their relative strengths and weaknesses, but the Browns are still working at way too much of a talent deficit to get the job done. 

6. San Francisco 49ers

The NFC West, surprisingly, has also not seen a worst-to-first team since 2002. The division has turned itself over several times, but it has also seen most of its division winners maintain consistency near the top of the standings for at least a couple years. 

The Seahawks have finished at or near the top every season since 2012, and they've only finished lower than second in four out of the past 15 years. They've been one of the best teams not just in the NFC West, not just in the NFC, but in the NFL for the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era. Barring injury, they figure to maintain that status in 2017. 

If it's not them atop the division, the Cardinals seem the most likely candidate. They underperformed their point differential last season and still have elite talent on both sides of the ball. The 49ers, by contrast, don't. They're on their way back to relevancy with the moves new general manager John Lynch made in the draft and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots on the sideline, but it figures to be a few years before they're in the mix for a first-place finish. 

5. Chicago Bears

The NFC North has also never seen a team go from worst to first, and the Bears don't seem very likely to break the streak. They're ahead of the Jets, Browns and 49ers because the Packers don't have quite as clear a challenger as the Steelers or Seahawks, and because the Bears somehow, incredibly, seem at least somewhat likely to get the best quarterback play of the four worst teams in our list. Not that Mike Glennon is great shakes, but McCown, Cody Kessler and Brian Hoyer aren't inspiring much confidence around here, either.

The Bears do have some talent on defense, and both John Fox and Vic Fangio have turned talent into smothering point-prevention units before. Still, the Bears seem incredibly unlikely to vault from the basement to the penthouse, just like their predecessors on this list. 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

At first glance, it seems like the Jaguars should be higher up on this list. The AFC South is an annual disaster, after all, and the Jaguars once again are coming off an offseason where they spent big trying to turn their defense into a juggernaut. Not only that, but they tried for the first time to make their offense Blake Bortles-proof, so they could be due for improvement on both sides of the ball. 

Alas, they are still the Jaguars, and around here we're going to have to see it before we believe it. Plus, this division actually looks surprisingly frisky. The Texans are coming off back-to-back division titles won in spite of dreadful quarterback play, and now they have Deshaun Watson at the helm. Plus, they're getting J.J. Watt back. The Colts should again be strong offensively with Andrew Luck leading the way, and they finally spent a bunch of cash to fix their defensive front. The exotic smashmouth Titans gave Marcus Mariota some new weapons and added play-makers on defense. 

It might actually be tough to win this division this year! Well, tough for the AFC South. For that reason, the Jags finish fourth. (In our rankings, if not necessarily the division.) 

3. Carolina Panthers

In the 2000s, going worst-to-first was the norm in the NFC South. The Panthers did it in 2003. The Falcons did it in 2004. The Bucs did it in 2005 and '07. The Saints did it in 2006, and then again in '09. In the seven seasons since, nobody has done it at all. 

The Panthers, though, are a pretty good candidate to break that streak. Carolina won the division in 2013, '14 and '15 before slumping to last place last season. The Panthers still have Cam Newton, an MVP-caliber quarterback, and they gave him a bunch of new toys to play with. Not only that but they still have a defense that should be able to pressure the passer and stop the run. If they get secondary play that resembles 2015 more than '16, they have a shot. 

The thing keeping them from a top-two slot on this list is the existence of the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off the eighth-highest scoring season in NFL history and have a defense that, Super Bowl collapse aside, looked to be on the verge of a breakout during the playoffs. 

2. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers finishing the 2016 season 5-11 was a bit of a fluke. They suffered a comical amount of injuries, with nearly every offensive skill player save Melvin Gordon finishing the season on injured reserve. They have a defense that finished in the top 10 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, equipped with star-caliber players at every level. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram form the core of a fierce pass rush that could lead the defense to jump into the top five. Philip Rivers has a plethora of weapons, a solid offensive line and a running back that can handle the ball on the ground or in the air. This team should be much improved. 

The AFC West might have been the strongest division in football last season, but things are surprisingly up in the air at the top. The Chiefs are going to start Alex Smith next season, but it's no secret that they're planning to transition to Patrick Mahomes sooner or later. There's no guarantee things will go smoothly. The Broncos have replacements in the wings for the retired DeMarcus Ware, but their quarterback situation is iffy at best right now. The Raiders added Marshawn Lynch and should hopefully have Derek Carr back fully healthy, but their defensive renaissance that was supposed to come from last season's personnel additions never came to pass. What if Lynch shows his age and the defense doesn't improve?

Things are in flux here, and the Chargers could take advantage if everything goes their way. 

1. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles ... kind of wound up here by default. When discussing these rankings in the Eye on Football Slack channel, I repeatedly said I didn't feel like they should be No. 1 for several reasons. 

First of all, even if the Cowboys take a step back in 2017, they're still a team that was 13-2 in games where they actually tried last season and they would have to take a fairly sizable step back to not be in the mix for a division title once again. There's a lot of defensive turnover in Dallas, though, and even if they might have gotten more talented on that side of the ball, the Boys are still replacing experienced players with a lot of rookies, and rookies are usually pretty bad. 

Second, the Eagles don't seem like the most likely team to overtake the Cowboys. That would be the Giants, what with their top-five defense and the trio of Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall helping Eli Manning move the ball down the field whenever the offensive line manages to keep him upright.

The Eagles actually might not even be the second-most likely team to overtake Dallas. Washington still seems likely to get better quarterback play than Philly and should be improved defensively as well. Both of those teams, though, have flaws that could easily derail them (offensive line for the Giants; general dysfunction for Washington). 

Weird things tend to happen in the NFC East, too. This division has seen a team go worst-to-first six times since 2002, including four of the past five years. The Eagles themselves have done it two of the three times they've finished in fourth place in the division. The East also has not seen a repeat division champ since 2009-10, when the Eagles did it. Philly has a really good defensive line (a necessity for any team that wants to topple Dallas) and an offensive line that can keep its quarterback upright. Carson Wentz, though he struggled badly for the most part after his scorching start, has a lot of talent and now has significantly better weapons at his disposal than he did a year ago.