Raiders vs. Ravens picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for 'Monday Night Football' in Week 1

Get ready for the final game of Week 1 with our gambling breakdown of 'Monday Night Football'

The Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders will put a bow on the first week of the 2021 season when these two AFC squads square up in Sin City for the first "Monday Night Football" matchup of the year. Injuries have been the story for the Ravens to begin the season as the roster has been decimated over the last few weeks. Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards along with star cornerback Marcus Peters all suffered torn ACLs and have been put on the shelf before their seasons could even begin. Meanwhile, the Raiders also have some questions in their backfield entering tonight after running back Josh Jacobs was downgraded to questionable due to an illness. How both teams respond to those issues will certainly be a storyline worth following as we wrap up Week 1. 

In this space, we'll specifically be looking at all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Below, we'll dive into the line movements leading up to this matchup, highlight some player props and, of course, give you our picks for this AFC primetime showdown. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 13 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, Nevada)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Ravens -4, O/U 50.5

Line movement

This line originally opened at Ravens -5.5 back in the spring, but stood at Ravens -4 for the bulk of the summer. It briefly ticked up a half-point in early September but has continued to settle at -4 even as injuries continue to hit Baltimore. 

The pick: Ravens -4. Even though injuries have hit the Ravens hard, it's not enough for me to fade them in the opener. John Harbaugh routinely has his teams ready to go to begin a given season, owning a 5-0 ATS record over his last five Week 1 games. Baltimore still has Lamar Jackson under center and can be just as dynamic with his legs as his arm, which should help cushion the blow of losing the likes of Dobbins and Edwards for the year. The Ravens are also the superior team defensively, commit fewer turnovers and have the better kicker of the bunch. There's too much going for them for me to turn away due to a few injuries. 

Key trend: Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

Over/Under total

The total has seen more movement than that spread, likely due to the injuries that hit Baltimore's roster. It opened at 52, but has seen a pretty consistent drop leading up to kickoff. Throughout last week, the total stood at 51, but has since dripped to 50.5 on Saturday evening leading into this contest. 

The pick: Under 50.5. The lack of weapons at Lamar Jackson's disposal does limit the scoring ceiling in this game. If Baltimore gets an early lead, they could continue to lean on the run game with Jackson and Ty'Son Williams, allowing them to eat time off the clock while keeping the Raiders offense sidelined. Meanwhile, the Under is 5-2 in Baltimore's last seven Week 1 games. The Under is also 5-1 in the Raiders' last five Monday games. 

Key trend: Under is 6-1 in the Ravens' last seven road games.

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Lamar Jackson props

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
• Passing yards: 209.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Rushing yards: 71.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Pass attempts: 27.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
  
• Rushing attempts: 11.5 (Over -120, -110)
• Completions: 18.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
• Longest pass completion: 33.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +140, Under -170)

The Over 11.5 rushing attempts (-120) is my favorite prop for Jackson. Baltimore's losses in the backfield are well documented and while Ty'Son Williams will likely get the start at running back, Jackson could prove to be the featured runner on Monday night. Even when he had a full complement of backs last year, Jackson hit the Over on this prop on six of his 15 regular season games played in 2020. 

Derek Carr props

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Passing yards: 258.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Rushing yards: 5.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Pass attempts: 33.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
• Completions: 23.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
• Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130, Under -160)

With the running game in question as Josh Jacobs deals with his reported illness, Carr could be asked to pass even more in the opener, specifically when the Raiders get close to the red zone. That's why I'm leaning towards the Over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns at -115. Carr has multi-passing touchdown games in 10 of his 16 games played in 2020. Is it also crazy to say that I like the Over on his rushing yards prop of 5.5 yards (-120)? Because I do. Carr averaged 8.75 rushing yards per game last season and had seven games where he traveled 10 yards or beyond with his legs. There's obviously a chance for a goose egg in rushing yards for him (happened three times last year), but this is one prop that catches my eye.

Player props to consider

Mark Andrews total receptions: Over 4.5 (-145). Andrews went Over on this prop in seven of his 14 games played in 2020. Over his final six regular season contests, he averaged 5.3 yards per reception on 7.3 targets per game. 

Henry Ruggs III receiving yards: Over 34.5 (-115). He hit the Over on this prop in six of his 13 games during his rookie season and the former first-round pick should be an even bigger piece to this Las Vegas offense as he steps into Year 2. The fact that Nelson Agholor and Tyrell Williams -- departed this offseason -- are no longer on the roster also clears up some more opportunities for Ruggs. 

Marquise Brown receiver yards: Over 48.5 (-115). He's the Ravens No. 1 receiver and was great down the stretch in 2020, averaging 98 receiving yards in Baltimore's two playoff games. During the regular season, he eclipsed this total in seven of his 16 games played. 

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