The Kansas City Chiefs will play in their sixth straight AFC Championship game when they travel to play at the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. The Ravens mark the fifth different opponent over those six Conference Championship trips for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes as they'll meet Lamar Jackson for the first time in the Conference Championship. This is also the first postseason matchup between Mahomes and Jackson despite Sunday being Mahomes' 17th start in the NFL playoffs. 

Kickoff from M&T Bank Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Ravens vs. Chiefs odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Ravens picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the conference championship round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Ravens vs. Chiefs and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model's picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Ravens:

  • Ravens vs. Chiefs spread: Baltimore -4.5
  • Ravens vs. Chiefs over/under: 44 points
  • Ravens vs. Chiefs money line: Baltimore -220, Kansas City +180
  • BAL: Ravens are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 playoff games
  • KC: Chiefs are 7-3 ATS on the road this season, including the playoffs
  • Ravens vs. Chiefs picks: See picks here
  • Ravens vs. Chiefs live stream: Paramount+ (try for free)

Why the Ravens can cover

The Ravens had the best scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing 16.5 points per game, and paired that with the fourth-best scoring offense at 28.4 points per game this season. Baltimore earned the top seed in the AFC playoff bracket despite being in a division with three other playoff teams and playing nine of 17 games this season against future postseason squads. The Ravens went 6-3 against those postseason teams while outscoring their opponents by an average of 12.7 ppg over those nine contests.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 1-4 during the regular season against future playoff teams with two of those four losses coming by at least four points. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing (156.5 yards per game) and had the third-best yards per attempt (4.9), and the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Baltimore rushed for 229 yards on 5.5 yards per carry against the Texans in the Divisional Round as the rushing attack may be too much for Kansas City to contain. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

While Baltimore's Lamar Jackson is the favorite to be named NFL MVP for the second time in his career, Patrick Mahomes' track record suggests he arguably is the top quarterback in the league. A two-time regular-season and Super Bowl MVP, the 28-year-old Mahomes owns a 13-3 record in the postseason and will tie Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Peyton Manning for the third-most wins in NFL playoff history with a victory on Sunday. He led the Chiefs to victory in his first three career matchups against Jackson and the Ravens and would be 4-0 had Kansas City not squandered a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter of their most recent meeting in 2021.

Mahomes has thrown 38 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions in the postseason while also running for five scores. Since being picked off twice in a 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati in the 2021 AFC Championship Game, he has 10 touchdown tosses and no interceptions in five playoff contests. Mahomes has 14 touchdown passes in his first five conference championship games and is seven away from matching Tom Brady for the all-time lead. Five of those 14 scoring tosses went to tight end Travis Kelce, who is tied with John Stallworth for the most touchdown catches in conference championship history. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Ravens picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, predicting 45 total points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. You can see the model's NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine.

So who wins Ravens vs. Chiefs in the NFL playoffs 2024, and which side of the spread cashes over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Ravens spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 184-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.