The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are set to renew their NFC South rivalry when the two teams square off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Saints enter Sunday's showdown having won six straight games. However, New Orleans will be without Drew Brees on Sunday after the 41-year-old suffered fractured ribs and a collapsed lung in last week's win over the 49ers.

Atlanta, meanwhile, enters Sunday's NFC South matchup averaging 396.8 yards per game on offense, which ranks fifth in the NFL. New Orleans has won four of its last five games against Atlanta and the Saints are favored by 3.5-points in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds from William Hill Sportsbook. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, sits at 49. Before entering any Falcons vs. Saints picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Falcons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Falcons vs. Saints:

  • Saints vs. Falcons spread: Saints -3.5
  • Saints vs. Falcons over-under: 49 points
  • Saints vs. Falcons money line: New Orleans -190, Atlanta +170

Why the Saints can cover

Taysom Hill is set to make his first career start at quarterback on Sunday. Hill has yet to throw a touchdown pass in his career and he's completed just four passes this season. With Hill under center on Sunday, New Orleans' offense is expected to rely heavily on the ground game against the Falcons.  

Running back Alvin Kamara has been the catalyst for New Orleans' offense this season. Kamara has recorded 486 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, while hauling in 67 receptions for 648 yards and four additional scores. He's recorded at least five receptions in each of his last five games and he's expected to be heavily involved on Sunday against an Atlanta defense that is giving up 410.0 yards per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. 

Why the Falcons can cover

Meanwhile, the Falcons picked up a 34-27 victory over the Denver Broncos two weeks ago for their third win in four games. Matt Ryan passed for three TDs and 284 yards on 35 attempts. He has 300-plus passing yards in three of his past four games vs. the Saints. Ryan is aiming for his fifth game in row vs. New Orleans with two-plus TD passes. He has 2,746 pass yards in 2020 and needs 254 passing yards to become the fourth quarterback in NFL history with 3,000+ pass yards in 12 of his first 13 seasons.

Julio Jones is aiming for his third game in a row on the road with seven receptions and 125 yards. He has 140-plus yards in two of his past three vs. the Saints. Jones has 840 career receptions and needs 10 catches to become the fourth wide receiver with 850 receptions in his first 10 seasons. Calvin Ridley (foot) is expected to play after being out of action since Week 8. The Falcons have won four of the past five meetings with the Saints. 

How to make Falcons vs. Saints picks

The model has simulated Saints vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Saints? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 11 of the NFL season on an incredible 114-74 roll.