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The New Orleans Saints' monthlong road trip to start the season comes to an end Sunday when the team plays the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Because of Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29, the Saints have not played at home since Week 2 of the preseason. After playing New England (1-1), New Orleans will have its home opener next week against the Giants. The Saints (1-1) opened the season with a 38-3 victory over the Packers in Jacksonville before losing last week at Carolina.

Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET. New England is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Saints odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you lock in any Saints vs. Patriots picks, you need to see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 3 of the 2021 season on an incredible 122-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Patriots vs. Saints and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can only see the model's Patriots vs. Saints picks at SportsLine. Now, here are several Week 3 NFL odds and betting lines for Saints vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Saints spread: New England -2.5
  • Patriots vs. Saints Over-Under: 43.5
  • Patriots vs. Saints moneyline: New England -150, New Orleans +130 
  • NE: Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (297.5) 
  • NO: Juwan Johnson ranks third among tight ends in TD receptions (two)
Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints

Why the Patriots can cover

Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been solid to start his career. The No. 15 overall pick in April's NFL Draft, Jones is the first quarterback in NFL history with 30-plus passing attempts and a completion percentage of at least 70 in each of his first two career starts. He also is one of two quarterbacks in NFL history with 60-plus attempts, a completion percentage of at least 70 and zero interceptions in his first two starts. The other is Aaron Rodgers.

In addition, the defense has played well to begin the year. New England is giving up just 11.5 points per game; only Carolina (10.0) gives up fewer. The Patriots also are allowing just 297.5 total yards per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL.

Why the Saints can cover

A major reason for New Orleans' woeful performance on Sunday against Carolina was the absence of several players and coaches, and many of those are expected to be available against the Patriots. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore (thumb), safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon each practiced on Wednesday after missing Sunday's game and are on track to return against New England. Also, Payton said that the 10-day window will expire soon for several coaches who were forced to sit out Sunday's game because of COVID protocols, allowing them to return for the game.

In addition, New Orleans has played well recently as the underdog. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Saints are 9-2 straight-up when they are not favored, including a 35-point win against Green Bay in Week 1 of this season. Their 9-2 record is the best in the NFL in that span.

How to make Patriots vs. Saints picks

Now, the model has broken down Saints vs. Patriots from every angle. The model is leaning under, but its much stronger play is on the spread. The model says one side of the Saints vs. Patriots spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Patriots vs. Saints picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Saints? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saints vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,800, and find out.